Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Eric-OH

Low Minors Arms-Why I Looked

Recommended Posts

I woke up this morning and was thinking about something that Tony asked me last week and I couldn’t provide the best answer.  I was asked to somehow analyze the low minors arms for speculative purposes based on what I saw last season and didn’t have enough to go on.  Since then I’ve combed through some stats and was pleasantly surprised by what I saw.  Briefly, and without the standards of comparing to years past, the arms currently rostered at Aberdeen and the Gulf Coast Orioles have some better than average walk rates or only have base on ball issues to work on to potentially break through.  If I’m a pitching coordinator and looking at some of these numbers as pitchers start their careers, then I realize that’s there is something significant to work with.

I’ve said it before-the GCL O’s starting staff was so solid and consistent that nobody stood out for doing too good or too bad.  Alan Mills sent out a starter, they did their job and the team usually won.  I can only imagine how that would feel at the big league level.....1971 anyone?

 

So ordered by current rosters here’s those low minor arms and what I see when I look at numbers only:

Adam Stauffer-2017+2018 had a handful of substandard innings and then boom 2019 he had ridiculous stats...29 k in 25 IP at Aberdeen as a starter with WHIP under .9!  Overall his WHIP was .93 in 44 IP and batters got him for a .143 avg.  A few less walks and his name will ring out. Not only good solid numbers, but an improvement all around from his debut.

 

Houston Roth-he’s not my favorite Roth in the system but it’s hard to ignore the good in his profile.  Size, youth and SEC pedigree before anything else.  Houston will turn 22 during Spring Training but he made the most of his age 21 innings at Aberdeen making folks take notice.  31.2 IP and a WHIP of 1.01.  Again, great whip with a less than stellar percentage of walks, 13 in those 31 innings.  He started 4 times in his 10 games so to extrapolate his swingman workload over a full season campaign I’d prefer a number like 6,7, or 8 walks per 30 IP, maybe less? Nitpicking I know but there has to be something for a guy who went 4-0 with a 1.42 with 40 K in 31.2 innings to work on.

 

Marlon Constante-Take notice of the fact that he’ll turn 24 this season and is in short season ball.  Also observe that in his several year career he only has 34 bases on balls in 181 IP.  Not too shabby.  He faded a bit down the stretch which isn’t the best considering the season’s lack of length and gave up a .292 in August.  He could be a depth piece but a manager can call on him and not panic if he gets to a 3 ball count.  Interestingly, he’s also 25-33 in career save chances and a has huge difference between Runs and Earned Runs, 75 and 46 respectively!  Looking at his page, this is someone who I’d love to have pitch data on to form a whole snapshot because his numbers paint an intriguing picture, I want to know/see more.

 

Connor Gillispie-This is one where the sample size is small but promising.  Used late in games he had 5 save chances, converting 4 in 20.1 IP.  We’d like to see high K, low walk and he obliged with 21 on the good side and only 5 BB.  Not super young, not super sized and not pro experienced as of yet, but why look past a solid start?  WHIP under .9 and an Avg against at less than .200 is what draws my eyes toward a guy.  From what I’ve read his stuff and spin rate have opened eyes so let’s see where he goes.

 

At this point, hopefully you realize there is talent and depth.  I’m not done or particularly close.

 

Shelton Perkins-First of all let’s wish him a happy birthday (1/28) as he turned 23.  So not too young, and not too many innings-17.2.  However he was close to dominant against swingers in the limited time, his AVG against was a microscopic .070!  His WHIP was all walks-an unfortunate 10 but it was still under .8.  You can’t get off to a better start despite being old and college experienced but when I see this I think that walk elimination is his only objective.  He’s one of those guys I mentioned initially that’s solid, but walks are in the way and that solid could be a better adjective a few innings in the future.

 

Jake Prizina-All of his counting stats and metrics look pretty solid, 26 base runners in 39 innings is all around good.  However he turned 23 last week and although everything I have to say about him is very positive one thing stood out a bit.  He walked out to pitch 11 times last year, 5 as a starter.  It’s not a lot but when you look at his WHIP and make it a WHApp, he’s only allowing 2.36 runners per APPEARANCE.  As a starter, that’s outstanding and as a reliever it’s substandard but I’ll be looking at that this year.  I want a better picture of his statistical profile despite seeing him often and despite his age am optimistic.  His teammates cheers loudly for  him and he had a mean mug on the mound.  How he’s used will answer some of that for me.  But he’s one guy I’m curious about in terms of his next few seasons as he approaches his peak.

 

Griffin McLarty-Here we go again, more good numbers to examine.  Low IP total but he maximized them allowing 24 total base runners in his 22.2, only 5 were walks.  I saw the 7 ER and thought maybe a few guys went deep on him and was wrong, he gave up no HR.  Then I noticed he also had no starts so only out of the pen.  Does that make his 25k or his .238 against look better?  Not for me to judge so early on, I’ll focus on the fact that he could have started his career poorly and he certainly didn’t, giving him and the organization something to build on. For a college guy he doesn’t turn 22 until the season’s second half so he could end up on one of a few rosters if he takes a step forward.  Color me watching.

 

Kevin Magee-Drafted two years ago and already 24 years old, the traditional developmental timeline is not on his side.  However, ignore the fact that he went from 10 walks in 38 2018 innings to a shinier 13 walks in 70 last season and you could be missing him altogether.  The ability to improve and focus on a specific area seems to have paid off for him, personally I love to see things like that.  His skill relative to league is not in question with .220 avg against and a WHIP of 1 in his first 100 career innings.  He’s allowed lefties to a .150 and then a .186 last year.  Another guy that despite the little I know, I’m dying for more based on the year to year improvement with walks.

 

Dan Hammer-O’s fans have expressed some optimism over him and I think I know why.  Started 6 times, converted his 1 save chance and was touched up to a low .153 average and .9 WHIP.  Again it’s made up of too many walks, 13, as he only gave up 18 hits in his 35 innings.  The periphery numbers are good but from what I’ve seen of him, I’d bet on improvement.  Let’s see if he can maximize some in 3 ball counts and not give in.  Again, so much to work with for a developmental staff.

 

Jake Lyons-At first glance this former Big 12 OK Stater lost 5 games and didn’t pitch 38 innings so ouch but look a little further and it’s not too touch to see some positives and narrow in on the issue/problem.  Firstly he is not small by any standards as he’s 6-5, wide legged and his listed weight is 285. Strikeouts are 39 in 37.1 IP so a check there, and hits too as he gave up 32.  Walks are more than what anyone would like but not entirely, he gave up 10.  So what’s the deal?

He gave up a .270 to leadoff hitters and had poor totals with guy son base.  There’s our answer.  Rallies, and especially ones he started from the jump hold him back.  Now, even with the poor timing working against him he was a 1.12 WHIP and 2.87 ERA.  Don’t forget about this huge Texan.  If he goes in a positive direction I have a feeling he’d be worth following.

 

That’s Aberdeen’s guys here are a few from the Gulf Coast O’s:

 

Jose Alejandro-This is a much more interesting case the deeper I look.  Being 24 and with his 6th season approaching, rookie league is not where he’d want to be admittedly.  But if there is any pitcher who is already good and being held back by walks, it’s him.  I can’t project him due to factors like age, but I can’t ignore that he

has 126 career innings (as high as Delmarva) but a whopping 98 walks.  Eek.  10-11 in career save chances and 139 career K’s screams look at me, but the 1.35 WHIP says look away.  He is yet to have a campaign with a better than bad walk rate.  Maybe it’s getting late for him.  Maybe he’ll finally fix it.  I remember seeing him at the end of the season and thinking good things as far as control, but his stats told me a different story and I can’t determine which is closer to actual.

 

Jensen Elliott-Mostly a starter but very small sample size with only 25.2 IP.  Jensen is also from OK State and also big about 6-5 and over 225 lbs.  He seems a Brad Penny type in build if that’s your thing and likes to work fast and control the pace.  I love that!  If you go ahead and extrapolate his innings and walks for a starter’s workload it’ll be 70BB in 175 innings.  That’s too much and like many others I’ve mentioned the rest looks better than good.  His WHIP was a tidy 1 and his average against .178 despite the free passes.  Also, when determining his role going forward, I’ll not look past his 6.35 ERA and 5 walks as a reliever.  The trend should be clear.  Good start, too many walks.

 

Garrett Farmer-Farmer was a swing guy.  11 appearances, 2 starts, 0 save opps.  He went to college, is 22 until mid May and did well in his first 22 innings, timing his appearances to 5 decisions-3 of them wins.  Not bad.  His WHIP and average against are .85 and .205-again not bad.  Farmer has a solid ground ball rate too, working with the defense to keep the game moving.  I can’t say that walks are hurting him, or even showing up as he has 2 in his brief career.  Hard to get a read on him however he laid a positive foundation and I remember him having a deliberate pace.  Deep breath, hands together, windup, repeat.  Looked the part.

 

JJ Montgomery-Someone who at 22, was helping the GCL O’s win average age but off to an ok start instead of a bad one so he gets on the good list.  Don’t want to sound critical, I’m actually positively inclined to follow as my impressions are very positive but his 22 walks in 36.1 2019 innings smells a little bit like his debut 10 walks in 13.1.  This is a guy who the team was pumped for and held the most rhythm, maybe higher rotation spot traits.  7/13, 7/19 and 7/24 he had a 2/5 w 3K’s then a 6/5 w 4K’s and finally a 4/4 w 7K’s(!) and 38 pitches.  That’s rookie level good and I barely remember his walks, but they’re there.  If he’s going to be a guy that’s still taking risks at ball 3, then I can’t chart him for working out of those risks, but cut the walk rate by chunks and at the very least, fan will like watching him work.  He really looks like a smooth athlete and doesn’t generate a ton of wasted motion so the watching him work part applies even when he’s off.  These stats make me sense control rooted detail being necessary, but of the starters he had the smoothest release and workup to release. If he’s the athlete I think, maybe a drastic change is possible.  I’ll root for that to happen.

 

Clayton McGinniss-this is not someone who had walks weigh him down, he only had 3 in his debut 21 innings.  18 hits, 2-2 in save chances and a 2.08 ERA nothing to ignore either.  24 of his outs by strikeout represent a decent k rate for a closer.  He’s 23 and went to college as well but a somewhat interesting split.  He’s righty, yet righties lit him up at .279 and on the other side left handed hitters only managed a .163 and gave him 63% of his K’s.  I’ll try notice his usage and his splits on the way up and maybe see if it meant anything at all and applies to his profile.  Another guy whose experience made him look a bit non-rookie ish compared to some of his opponents.

 

Not done we’re going even further down.  The Dominican Summer League Orioles-1.

There are two teams at the academy in DR and I’m learning a little bit more everyday about the players and the philosophy and how it fits into what is happening here.  Not to get into it but these efforts are so ridiculously crucial to sustained success and I would think that priorities of every type are reflective of this.  Here’s two arms that stood out looking at career start/walks/standout splits:

 

Carlos Delrosario-48.1 innings at 20 years of age is quite a total as is the 60K’s.  But 36 walks is giving the pitching coaches work to do-not a bad thing as I see it.  My brain is thrown for a loop when I see .186 avg against next to 1.39 WHIP.  Or 31 hits vs those 36 walks.  I want to think something, but really I want to see it in person to paint a picture.  I’ll just say that I didn’t hate Daniel Cabrera as much as most O’s fans.  To say that walks got in the way of success there is clear. This guy does happen to be 6-5 and has heat. Not a good comp.

 

Pablo Falconett-He is only 19 and has a pair of seasons already being used as a reliever; also 5-7 in save opportunities.  Counting stats all worth a glance and he shows a statistical profile of controlling right handed at bats.  Still good.  To repeat, very small sample size but he had 9 walks in his debut 24 innings which improved to 4 walks after an innings increase, although slight-up to 33.2.  The improvement is incremental yet caught my attention.  He has 70K in the 57.2 innings and 1.02 WHIP so another pitcher starting his pro career doing well.

  • Upvote 2
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tons of good stuff here.    The main issue with our low-level pitchers is that many of them were old for their level, particularly in the GCL.     The main reason for this is that the pitchers Elias drafted were  almost exclusively college pitchers, so that meant a lot of them got pushed to the GCL and also younger guys from 2018 were kept back in the GCL to make room for some of the older arms at Aberdeen.   The average age of our staffs was 22.0 in the GCL (league average 20.3), 21.6 at Aberdeen (21.3) and 22.3 at Delmarva (21.8).    You can see from this that our GCL staff would be older than average for the Sally League, much less the GCL.   So, their stats need to be taken with a grain of salt.    Nevertheless, I’m glad they had success.   

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most intriguing guys based on age were probably Stauffer and Zebron.    The pitching staff at Delmarva should be college heavy with Hammer, Lyons, Peek, Brnovich, and Lyons in the mix with Stauffer probably in there as well.   McClarty and Gillespie figure in as well.    I could see a lot of piggybacking at Delmarva.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tons of good stuff here.    The main issue with our low-level pitchers is that many of them were old for their level, particularly in the GCL.     The main reason for this is that the pitchers Elias drafted were  almost exclusively college pitchers, so that meant a lot of them got pushed to the GCL and also younger guys from 2018 were kept back in the GCL to make room for some of the older arms at Aberdeen.   The average age of our staffs was 22.0 in the GCL (league average 20.3), 21.6 at Aberdeen (21.3) and 22.3 at Delmarva (21.8).    You can see from this that our GCL staff would be older than average for the Sally League, much less the GCL.   So, their stats need to be taken with a grain of salt.    Nevertheless, I’m glad they had success.   

Thanks again.  You say issue but I think a significantly larger one would be evident if they were this age and did not get off to a good start.  There are plenty of names that could be put into that group.  These are the guys who have shown well early so I want to emphasize that. In years past the overachievers are so outnumbered by the duds and I think I’m going to look at that and get specific soon.

 I like the way you look at the age relative to competition numbers as far as creating expectations and looking at aggregate results. Don’t ignore the winning percentages and foundations to build on.  They’re both there.  We saw some good teams. 
If we want competition to be the force that pushes players up levels, it’s already happening!  I wish there were games to watch right now!

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Most intriguing guys based on age were probably Stauffer and Zebron.    The pitching staff at Delmarva should be college heavy with Hammer, Lyons, Peek, Brnovich, and Lyons in the mix with Stauffer probably in there as well.   McClarty and Gillespie figure in as well.    I could see a lot of piggybacking at Delmarva.

I looked at potential staffs too.  The Shorebirds and Ironbirds should have some serious comp for innings.  That’s such an exciting thing for fans like us to examine and analyze.  I can’t wait to see who makes us completely wrong and takes a huge step forward.  It’s gonna be someone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Eric-OH said:

I looked at potential staffs too.  The Shorebirds and Ironbirds should have some serious comp for innings.  That’s such an exciting thing for fans like us to examine and analyze.  I can’t wait to see who makes us completely wrong and takes a huge step forward.  It’s gonna be someone.

There’s going to be a ton of competition to make the Delmarva staff this year.    It’s going to be great having you at spring training etc. to give us some insight into who’s looking good.   

I completely agree with your point in your prior post that while some of our pitchers may have been a bit old for their level, at least they dominated at that level rather than struggling.   We can hope they’ll continue to succeed and move up quickly.   I’ll really be interested to see if anyone from the GCL leapfrogs straight to the Delmarva staff.    It won’t be easy to do considering how successful the Aberdeen staff was.

Looking at the opposite end of the spectrum, I’m wondering if you have any thoughts about our 2018 no. 6 pick, Yeancarlos Lleras.    He was only 17 when drafted, and has really struggled for two years now in the GCL (8.31 ERA in 2018, 6.41 in 2019), but even so, he’s still really young.    Have you seen him pitch?   Any potential there despite his really poor numbers, or is this just a busted pick?
 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frobby said:

  I’ll really be interested to see if anyone from the GCL leapfrogs straight to the Delmarva staff.    It won’t be easy to do considering how successful the Aberdeen staff was.

To me that’s such an exciting storyline for 2020 early!  
Lleras did pitch a couple times and I saw several appearances.  The good, he had the loud approval and support of his dugout.  The less than good-he was easy to square up on everything.  I don’t know how to read too much into his performance other than that.  There were bats in the zone and he had little success at missing them.  Looking just stats it’s not been an easy start so far and he took his lumps without bad body language.  There’s a positive.  I remember mound visits that didn’t do much and he was chosen a couple times in somewhat higher leverage situations when maybe another guy would have been my pick for whatever reasons. I remember thinking that it felt like an indicator of him having a program in place despite underperforming to that point.  I wish I had more good stuff to break down and tell you, maybe he’ll start to provide it this year.  And I did not know or never would have thought of his draft pedigree.  It’ll make me see him slightly different going forward.  I’m glad to have a discussion and learn some new facts about these guys.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Most intriguing guys based on age were probably Stauffer and Zebron.    The pitching staff at Delmarva should be college heavy with Hammer, Lyons, Peek, Brnovich, and Lyons in the mix with Stauffer probably in there as well.   McClarty and Gillespie figure in as well.    I could see a lot of piggybacking at Delmarva.

I think maybe I should get in touch with you if I want to have a piece on rotation/lineup speculation!  Now that they’re inviting like 40-50 pitchers to big league camp to inspire competition I want to see if that is an organizational theme on down. Looking at some of the names there should be some exciting innings ahead!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Eric-OH said:

I think maybe I should get in touch with you if I want to have a piece on rotation/lineup speculation!  Now that they’re inviting like 40-50 pitchers to big league camp to inspire competition I want to see if that is an organizational theme on down. Looking at some of the names there should be some exciting innings ahead!

I usually play around with who I think will be in each affiliates rotation, bullpen, and lineup for the coming year and I'm usually way off. lol

This year is really tough. For instance,  I have Delmarva as:

1B Daschbach

2B Ortiz

SS Hernaiz

3B Henderson

C Handley

LF Ferguson

CF Sparks

RF Stowers

DH Encarnacion 

 

That would be an optimistic guess.  Welk would get promoted all the way up to Frederick, which is possible based on his age and performance at Aberdeen. In all likelihood, Sparks is the least likely to start at Delmarva.  Plus, we have Torchin from last years team and Fontana and Lewis from last years draft who factor in.

So I have Welk, Watson, Rizer, and Fontana all starting at Frederick with Neustrom returning. Hall and Grenier sharing SS-2B. Rutschman catching. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I usually play around with who I think will be in each affiliates rotation, bullpen, and lineup for the coming year and I'm usually way off. lol

This year is really tough. For instance,  I have Delmarva as:

1B Daschbach

2B Ortiz

SS Hernaiz

3B Henderson

C Handley

LF Ferguson

CF Sparks

RF Stowers

DH Encarnacion 

 

That would be an optimistic guess.  Welk would get promoted all the way up to Frederick, which is possible based on his age and performance at Aberdeen. In all likelihood, Sparks is the least likely to start at Delmarva.  Plus, we have Torchin from last years team and Fontana and Lewis from last years draft who factor in.

So I have Welk, Watson, Rizer, and Fontana all starting at Frederick with Neustrom returning. Hall and Grenier sharing SS-2B. Rutschman catching. 

Both of those teams (Delmarva and Frederick) would be super exciting. I like this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I usually play around with who I think will be in each affiliates rotation, bullpen, and lineup for the coming year and I'm usually way off. lol

This year is really tough. For instance,  I have Delmarva as:

1B Daschbach

2B Ortiz

SS Hernaiz

3B Henderson

C Handley

LF Ferguson

CF Sparks

RF Stowers

DH Encarnacion 

 

That would be an optimistic guess.  Welk would get promoted all the way up to Frederick, which is possible based on his age and performance at Aberdeen. In all likelihood, Sparks is the least likely to start at Delmarva.  Plus, we have Torchin from last years team and Fontana and Lewis from last years draft who factor in.

So I have Welk, Watson, Rizer, and Fontana all starting at Frederick with Neustrom returning. Hall and Grenier sharing SS-2B. Rutschman catching. 

Nothing out of the world crazy there.  You’re probably close with a large percentage.  That’d be great for Lamar.  I’ll stop drooling over the respective infield and outfield on the Eastern shore!  Based on how much I loved him starting off games ready to roll I hope Lewis locates playing time that’s regular.  Depending on your picks for the Frederick rotation, they could be a league winner.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Absltgreek said:

Both of those teams (Delmarva and Frederick) would be super exciting. I like this.

There is every reason to be pumped about these teams.  Lots of questions answered and great baseball is on the horizon-it’s just a matter of who will seize the opportunities and play it!  
I’m with you...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Eric-OH said:

Nothing out of the world crazy there.  You’re probably close with a large percentage.  That’d be great for Lamar.  I’ll stop drooling over the respective infield and outfield on the Eastern shore!  Based on how much I loved him starting off games ready to roll I hope Lewis locates playing time that’s regular.  Depending on your picks for the Frederick rotation, they could be a league winner.  

Frederick starting rotation:

Greyson Rodriguez

Drew Rom

Blaine Knight

Gray Fenter

Wilson/Vespi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Eric-OH said:

Thanks again.  You say issue but I think a significantly larger one would be evident if they were this age and did not get off to a good start.  There are plenty of names that could be put into that group.  These are the guys who have shown well early so I want to emphasize that. In years past the overachievers are so outnumbered by the duds and I think I’m going to look at that and get specific soon.

 I like the way you look at the age relative to competition numbers as far as creating expectations and looking at aggregate results. Don’t ignore the winning percentages and foundations to build on.  They’re both there.  We saw some good teams. 
If we want competition to be the force that pushes players up levels, it’s already happening!  I wish there were games to watch right now!

Age vs level is of course a huge part of evaluating prospects and can't just be ignored or minimized. Obviously a player can not determine where they are placed to pitch, and the fact that they dominated is good, but their success has to be taken with a grain of salt unless there is scouting reports available that tells you of a jump in stuff. A 22-year old pitching the GCL may be able to dominate younger hitters be getting them to chase on pitches that older, more mature hitters won't. 

A college senior drafted after the first ten rounds and without any kind of good reason to not be drafted as a senior typically has below average overall stuff. that's why they are available at that point in the draft. Can some develop and improve and become legitimate prospects, sure, but it's rare. 


 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just look at some of the hitters like Janvrin and Lewis on what they did in the GCL and at Aberdeen after promotion. Big difference.  Fontana too but his fall off was still in an acceptable area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...