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Eric-OH

Low Minors Arms-Why I Looked

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14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Frederick starting rotation:

Greyson Rodriguez

Drew Rom

Blaine Knight

Gray Fenter

Wilson/Vespi

That’s a very talented group.  Looking forward to seeing some collective steps forward.  I wouldn’t want to be a hitter when the Keys roll into town.

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5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Just look at some of the hitters like Janvrin and Lewis on what they did in the GCL and at Aberdeen after promotion. Big difference.  Fontana too but his fall off was still in an acceptable area.

Those are some good examples.  Jump a level, it gets tougher.  I’m going to be curious how these 3 specifically use the skills I saw to sink or swim.  

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22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Age vs level is of course a huge part of evaluating prospects and can't just be ignored or minimized. Obviously a player can not determine where they are placed to pitch, and the fact that they dominated is good, but their success has to be taken with a grain of salt unless there is scouting reports available that tells you of a jump in stuff. A 22-year old pitching the GCL may be able to dominate younger hitters be getting them to chase on pitches that older, more mature hitters won't. 

A college senior drafted after the first ten rounds and without any kind of good reason to not be drafted as a senior typically has below average overall stuff. that's why they are available at that point in the draft. Can some develop and improve and become legitimate prospects, sure, but it's rare. 


 

I agree, it’s a low percentage play any way you look at it.  Also, that’s pretty much what I observed last season as far as getting outs.  Stuff I can’t be specific on because of the lack of hard data for me.

You're making me wonder if having an higher aged team in Sarasota is a priority and if that’s the case, why?  Or, was it a priority for last year?
 

As the profile for the players they have in mind becomes clear, maybe this will be something we can identify and answer.  Also, in the next few seasons we should see a bump in skill from international pitchers that seems to be in a down curve today.  If that track is a fast one, I’d love to see the OH Top 30 lists in 2024 and 2025 to fortify a better MLB roster.

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2 hours ago, Eric-OH said:

I agree, it’s a low percentage play any way you look at it.  Also, that’s pretty much what I observed last season as far as getting outs.  Stuff I can’t be specific on because of the lack of hard data for me.

You're making me wonder if having an higher aged team in Sarasota is a priority and if that’s the case, why?  Or, was it a priority for last year?
 

As the profile for the players they have in mind becomes clear, maybe this will be something we can identify and answer.  Also, in the next few seasons we should see a bump in skill from international pitchers that seems to be in a down curve today.  If that track is a fast one, I’d love to see the OH Top 30 lists in 2024 and 2025 to fortify a better MLB roster.

If Elias' first draft is any indication, he's going draft mostly college guys and only draft high school kids when they've got high ceilings and are singable. I think what we're going to find is that most of the young position players are going to be coming up from the DSL academy/League and that he's going to take some chances on college arms that meet certain criteria "high spin fastballs of breaking balls."

I don't think Elias cares at all about wins and losses in the GCL League, but more about how to mine through the talent. If you look over the history of the GCL League, you will see very few high school hitters that weren't drafted in the first ten rounds make it to the big leagues. 

If Elias continues to draft like last year (College pitcher heavy) you are going to see a very successful team down there, but that doesn't mean it will be full of actual prospects. If he hits in one of those guys that's a good haul after the first ten rounds.

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38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If Elias' first draft is any indication, he's going draft mostly college guys and only draft high school kids when they've got high ceilings and are singable. I think what we're going to find is that most of the young position players are going to be coming up from the DSL academy/League and that he's going to take some chances on college arms that meet certain criteria "high spin fastballs of breaking balls."

I don't think Elias cares at all about wins and losses in the GCL League, but more about how to mine through the talent. If you look over the history of the GCL League, you will see very few high school hitters that weren't drafted in the first ten rounds make it to the big leagues. 

If Elias continues to draft like last year (College pitcher heavy) you are going to see a very successful team down there, but that doesn't mean it will be full of actual prospects. If he hits in one of those guys that's a good haul after the first ten rounds.

I think that’s totally what I see, and I’ll take the lower percentage play that way.  Especially if his criteria are met and the decisions are informed.  Do you see this as an intelligent mix as far as position/pitching and their intended pipelines?

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25 minutes ago, Eric-OH said:

I think that’s totally what I see, and I’ll take the lower percentage play that way.  Especially if his criteria are met and the decisions are informed.  Do you see this as an intelligent mix as far as position/pitching and their intended pipelines?

I think it will be determined by the talent for that year, but high school hitters have always been a wild card because it's hard to assess them against high level pitching until the face high level pitching. The trackman data is helping nowadays at showcases and team workouts. 

Still, it would not surprise me if Elias stays college heavy for both his position players and pitchers outside of the first ten rounds.

 

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14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think it will be determined by the talent for that year, but high school hitters have always been a wild card because it's hard to assess them against high level pitching until the face high level pitching. The trackman data is helping nowadays at showcases and team workouts. 

Still, it would not surprise me if Elias stays college heavy for both his position players and pitchers outside of the first ten rounds.

 

This is great.  I see some lines of questioning for future media sessions! 

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On 1/30/2020 at 2:04 PM, Tony-OH said:

If Elias' first draft is any indication, he's going draft mostly college guys and only draft high school kids when they've got high ceilings and are singable. 

He said this last week:

The Orioles hold the second overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft and Elias noted again that there’s an abundance of collegiate talent.

“It does appear to be an extremely college-heavy group of players right now,” he said, “but pitcher versus hitter, we’re going to look at both.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/01/leftovers-from-shorebirds-hot-stove-banquet.html

He might have only been talking about the first round pick there, but his comment suggests he’ll go college heavy again this year.    

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He said this last week:

 

 

For guys like us, I wonder how many draft classes it will take to truly break down if that’s the right way and if it’s an effective mix w/international talent acquired.

Do it right and it’s years of sustained success instead of 2012-2014 type blip-as good as that was.

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18 minutes ago, Eric-OH said:

For guys like us, I wonder how many draft classes it will take to truly break down if that’s the right way and if it’s an effective mix w/international talent acquired.

Do it right and it’s years of sustained success instead of 2012-2014 type blip-as good as that was.

Honestly I think it’s case by case.   Obviously Hall and Rodriguez were both high school guys, along with Rom, Hanifee and some others.    Overall I’d say you get higher upside but more risk with high school guys.    There are times to take risks and times not to.   

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42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly I think it’s case by case.   Obviously Hall and Rodriguez were both high school guys, along with Rom, Hanifee and some others.    Overall I’d say you get higher upside but more risk with high school guys.    There are times to take risks and times not to.   

Good point.  Risk early, trust experience that you value slightly later.  Relatively intelligent strategy .

Looking forward to big steps from all of those 4 this season.  Maybe some risk starting to be rewarded.  I’m a big Rom supporter and as far as Hanifee hoping strongly for control adjustments. He seems to be able to handle the innings load so why not make the most of a few more of them?  

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