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Projected Rosters-- Full Season squads

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Elias said that it depends on how he looks this spring.  I believe him.  A good spring puts Gunnar at Delmarva.  Just as big a question for me is how much time he continues to get at SS and how much, if any, at 3B.  

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Good to remember that both Henderson and Hernaiz were pretty young for their draft class.    Henderson doesn’t turn 19 until June 29 and Hernaiz on August 3.    Only two position players who got 97+ at bats in the Sally League last year turned 19 that late.    I’d be excited if either starts the year in Delmarva but I’d say the odds are under 50/50.  

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Good to remember that both Henderson and Hernaiz were pretty young for their draft class.    Henderson doesn’t turn 19 until June 29 and Hernaiz on August 3.    Only two position players who got 97+ at bats in the Sally League last year turned 19 that late.    I’d be excited if either starts the year in Delmarva but I’d say the odds are under 50/50.  

A very good point.  These execs know their  prospects’ birth month relative to developmental curve and especially compared to their draft class.  It’s data. If they’re that young than at least to start they’ll be back down with the opportunity to jump.  My odds would be slightly less than 50/50 but truly just another topic to speculate on.  

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On 2/1/2020 at 8:51 PM, RZNJ said:

Yep. Big jump for Welk. If they are conservative with Henderson and Hernaiz then Welk goes to Delmarva. Otherwise, I was thinking of the scenario where Hernaiz and Henderson go to Delmarva.  That would kind of push Welk to Frederick. 

Also, I don't view Curran or Encarnacion as organizational players. More like failed prospects.  They may get more chances but I think their time is running out, especially Curran.

I'd like to see that, but based on Elias' comments it seems he's leaning towards being conservative with Henderson and Hernaiz. If neither can change his mind in spring training, then I think Delmarva will see Ortiz at SS and Welk at 3B with Encarnacion moving to Frederick despite his lack of success last year at Delmarva. Encarnacion might be a guy that hits a bit better when pitches re around the plate more at the upper levels, but he really doesn't have much of a plan at the plate. 

Curran to me is an org guy who will DH and play a little 1B at either Delmarva or Frederick depending where there is a spot on the roster. He's a bubble guy that could be released as well this spring.

I'd really love to see a Henderson (3B), Hernaiz (SS), Ortiz (2B) infield at Delmarva next year but both Henderson and especially Hernaiz would be young for the league.  I really wish the New York Penn League would be a full season league that would be 2nd year high school draftee/young international league player heavy league early on and then would convert to a college league after the draft.

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5 hours ago, Eric-OH said:

https://www.prospects1500.com/al-east/orioles/the-next-10-a-deeper-dive-into-the-baltimore-orioles-farm-system/

 

Saw this today, a few new names and a couple we recognize.  Some recognition for Welk too

Surprised not to see Prado's name on this list.  He's one of the 2 youngsters who came over in the Cashner deal.  I did watch for him after the deal and remember some pretty good lines in the box scores but obviously never seen him play.  Was hoping to see an updated scouting report on him.

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2 hours ago, Chuck A said:

Surprised not to see Prado's name on this list.  He's one of the 2 youngsters who came over in the Cashner deal.  I did watch for him after the deal and remember some pretty good lines in the box scores but obviously never seen him play.  Was hoping to see an updated scouting report on him.

The article was about the “next 10” after the Orioles’ top 50.   Prado was ranked much higher on this list, at no. 22:

22. Elio Prado, OF
Age: 18 (DOB 11/29/2001)
2019 Highest Level: Dominican Summer League
Prado came to Baltimore in the Andrew Cashner trade in mid-July.The now 18 year old had a great showing in his debut, slashing .300/.403/.396 with 15 extra base hits, a 13.7 K rate and and 11.4% BB rate. With room to grow as he matures the center fielder should have room to add some pop and while a complete lottery ticket right now, the upside is there, he’s one to watch.
ETA: 2024

https://www.prospects1500.com/al-east/baltimore-orioles-2020-top-50-prospects/

 

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2 hours ago, Chuck A said:

Surprised not to see Prado's name on this list.  He's one of the 2 youngsters who came over in the Cashner deal.  I did watch for him after the deal and remember some pretty good lines in the box scores but obviously never seen him play.  Was hoping to see an updated scouting report on him.

I would prefer to see that info as well.  An old Red Sox site had no report on either. I agree that the stats look good, especially the k/bb ratio for Prado.  If these stats came from GCL games, these youngsters would have some more attention on them and would be the top offensive performers on the team.  Right now, players are arriving at the O’s complex in Santo Domingo and the rosters shouldn’t take more than a couple weeks to formulate down there.  If I can get any info at all I’ll be happy to share it here.  

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1 minute ago, Eric-OH said:

I would prefer to see that info as well.  An old Red Sox site had no report on either. I agree that the stats look good, especially the k/bb ratio for Prado.  If these stats came from GCL games, these youngsters would have some more attention on them and would be the top offensive performers on the team.  Right now, players are arriving at the O’s complex in Santo Domingo and the rosters shouldn’t take more than a couple weeks to formulate down there.  If I can get any info at all I’ll be happy to share it here.  

See the post I just made.  

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Just some thoughts about Baltimore and Norfolk pitching and how they play with each other. 

 

Baltimore Rotation

Definites:

Means, Cobb, Wojo

Maybes:

90% Wade LeBlanc - Confirmed in the media that LeBlanc took the job in Baltimore and bypassed other, more lucrative offers to start games. I presume that means "start games" and not "log innings". Because of his usage in Seattle last year as the post-opener innings eater, I initially presumed that would be the case here: he plays the new swing man/post-opener behind Bailey or Rucker, who have no major league experience. I have little doubt he makes the team, just not sure in what capacity. I'm pretty sure he starts games for us.

50% Michael Rucker / Brandon Bailey - I feel better that this is the combo they use; Rucker as an opener and Bailey doing innings in relief as a piggyback. Rucker was a reliever for all of last year while Bailey was stretch out. I think this could be the play here. If not, both have Rule 5 status to basically guarantee spots; Bailey is the fifth starter and Rucker to the pen. 

Don't think So's:

40% Kohl Stewart - The big "IF" here is whether he makes the team, because he has an option. I'm guessing his Spring will determine his fate. If the rotation consists of the definites above, plus the unmovable Bailey, Rucker and LeBlanc... he gets squeezed.

10% David Hess - I liked the news coming out of camp that he was in the same training program that helped John Means spin an all-star campaign. Like Stewart, he also has an option, but I'm also thinking he's behind Stewart in the pecking order. I'm guessing he has a small outside chance of being in the rotation, probably a better shot at the bullpen, but ultimately gets optioned because happens to have one of those. The good news for him is that he can get stretched out if the O's want to use openers, they'll need more guys that can eat innings.

10% Keegin Akin - His lefthandedness helps, but with his option I think he sees another half season in AAA before someone gets hurt or is too ineffective.

The only guy I have a good opinion about is Means, interested to see Bailey and Stewart. LeBlanc, Cobb, and Wojo are just taking up space and innings. The rest have a lot to prove.

 

Baltimore Bullpen:

Definites:

Givens, Harvey

Maybes: 

90% Rucker / Bailey - Explained above

90% Sean Armstrong - Has no options, so unless he's off the team completely he's making it.

90% Miguel Castro - Don't realistically see him not making the team unless he comes to Spring Training and melts down.

75% Scott, Bleier, Fry - The only lefties outside of Keegin Akin, so I'm guessing all three are shoo-in's here. Scott is the weak link here, but Fry and Bleier have their own weaknesses as well.

Don't think So's:

60% Lakins - Has an option, but had some success in Boston last year. Unsure what they do with him.

Out of these guys, I like Givens and Harvey the most, and from what I've seen are the only ones in the bullpen I think have proven their meddle in the MLB. I'm interested to see Bailey.

 

Tides Rotation:

Definites:

Zimmerman, Kremer

Maybes:

90% Keegin Akin - I mostly think that given his option and inexperience, he will not make the Baltimore squad. But he is on the 40-man roster. He has considerably more AAA time logged than Kremer so he may not have much more to prove in Norfolk.

80% Stewart - His placement in Norfolk's rotation really depends on how Baltimore shakes out.

50% Lowther / Wells - I feel okay about them being promoted, but there are a lot of AAAA guys signed to consider as well. If they aren't running a six man rotation, one of these guys is in Bowie.

Don't Think So's:

50% Brady Rodgers - He's a AAA guy with starting experience. I'm not sure if they intend to keep him there.

30% Cesar Valdez - I have no idea what to make of this signing or for what role they want for him.

20% Mickey Jannis - Has had no success in AAA each time he was promoted. I'm thinking the Orioles try him in AA again and maybe tweak his approach before they promote him again. 

20% Eshelman, Blach - Not sure they have much future in the org.

10% Luis Ortiz - His disastrous 2019 may throw him back to AA in a roster crunch, if he survives the cuts.

Zimmerman, Kremer, Lowther and Wells are the only guys I feel are "safe" in the organization.

 

Tides Bullpen:

Definites:

Tate, Sulser, Carroll, Phillips - for the record; I think these guys are make-or-break 40-man guys and their grasp on roster spots are tenuous.

Maybes:

Hess, Scott are also considerations here.

90% Lakins - Has a real shot to make the Baltimore club. I think he's better than these "definites" above.

90% Isaac Mattson - I feel mostly good that he'll be in Norfolk and not Bowie, but could get squeezed.

80% Christian Alvarado - I feel like he's on the verge of getting called up, so I'm guessing he's here and not Bowie. Given his age, he's going on whatever talent he has and not prospect status. It's make or break for him.

Don't Think So's

70% Eric Hanhold - He's a roster squeeze guy, I think.

20% Hunter Cervenka, Rob Zastryzny, Chandler Shepherd , Tyler Herb - I'm thinking the odd's on these guys is less.

 

Lakins and Mattson are the only two names I feel are "safe" within the organization.

 

 

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POS        BALTIMORE          NORFOLK          BOWIE          FREDERICK          DELMARVA          ABERDEEN   

C              Severino                Wynns               Cervenka      Rutschman         Handley                 Yett

1B            Mancini                 Valaika              Palmeiro       Escarra                Daschbach           Herrera

2B            Alberto                  Herrera              Santiago       Hall                       Fregia                   Hernaiz

SS            Iglesias                 Martin                McCoy           Grenier                Ortiz                      Henderson

3B            Ruiz                        Bannon              Dorrian          Reyes                  Welk                      Putzig

RF            Santander              Diaz                    Jarrett           Neustrom           Stowers                Tavarez

CF            Hays                       Mullins               McKenna       Rizer                   Watson                 Fontana

LF            Smith Jr.                 Mountcastle     Nichting         Thornburn         Turchin                 Lewis

DH           Nunez                      Stewart             Cumberland  Curran                Encarnacion         Janvirn

Bench      Sisco                       Rondon             Valentin          Ferguson          Cespedes              Carmona

                  Davis                       Holaday            Ripken            Ogren                Torres                    Burgess

                  Williams                                            Billingsley      Roberts             Cannon                 Kehe

                  Urena

RZNJ - really good summary, here are some minor differences I have:

  • Norfolk roster needs to include Valaika, so I guess 1B, even though that's not his natural position.
  • Cervenka should share C with Cumberland at Bowie.
  • Not sure what to do about Canelo, but I like Santiago at 2B in Bowie.
  • Have to have McCoy as a regular somewhere.
  • I think Dorrian beats out Reyes, who's kind of been spinning his wheels.
  • Welk won't make the big jump, unfortunately, to start the season.
  • Can't see Watson at Frederick yet until he makes more contact, so Thorburn (ugh) gets one more chance.
  • Curran is your DH at Frederick, he was born to DH.
  • Henderson and Hernaiz won't make the big jump either, so look for Fregia and Joey Ortiz at Delmarva.

      

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