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Frobby

Fangraphs: Orioles’ Top 40

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21 hours ago, Frobby said:

I just noticed that Fangraphs has Cadyn Grenier’s run tool graded at 70/70.     Did I miss something?     I don’t remember hearing before that his speed was noteworthy at all.   

 

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Eric Longenhagen picked out Michael Baumann and Adam Hall as guys who Gogo’s crack next year’s top 100 if things click.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-i-expect-to-make-the-2021-top-100/

Grenier, Hall, and Gunnar, just point out how hard it is to find a SS prospect. Elias said recently something along the lines that a top SS prospect is the most important part of a farm system. I think he we take SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt if he’s there with our 2nd pick. 

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19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Grenier, Hall, and Gunnar, just point out how hard it is to find a SS prospect. Elias said recently something along the lines that a top SS prospect is the most important part of a farm system. I think he we take SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt if he’s there with our 2nd pick. 

If he was that focused on it he could have gone Witt 1-1 last draft.

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48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he was that focused on it he could have gone Witt 1-1 last draft.

That’s like saying you could have used your spare hour to mow the lawn, when you used your time to change your brake pads. If you have to do both, swapping the order you then in doesn’t solve the problem.

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Grenier, Hall, and Gunnar, just point out how hard it is to find a SS prospect. Elias said recently something along the lines that a top SS prospect is the most important part of a farm system. I think he we take SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt if he’s there with our 2nd pick. 

I don’t recall the quote you are referring to, unless you are referring to this:

I got to Elias and said "I know baseball organizations are really large. But they all can't have everything. Is there one thing the O's organization doesn't have that you would like to have?" I thought that he would say some kind of physical training equipment, or some techie video device. He said "A good shortstop prospect."

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/37368-os-caravan-turf-valley-and-mike-elias/&tab=comments#comment-2564495

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3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Grenier, Hall, and Gunnar, just point out how hard it is to find a SS prospect. Elias said recently something along the lines that a top SS prospect is the most important part of a farm system. I think he we take SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt if he’s there with our 2nd pick. 

Remember that Martin hasn't played short in college. It appears he's more than capable but he hasn't done it yet. This spring will tell a lot.

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I’m continuing to track Fangraphs’ grades given to each team’s prospects.     They are now up to 16 teams.    Using a system employed by Fangraphs last year to place a dollar value on each level of prospect (e.g., a 50 FV hitter has an excess value of $28 mm), the current excess value of the Orioles’ system is $206 mm, which places them 8th of 16 teams and just above the average of $202.75 mm.   Right now, of the 16 teams ranked, the Pirates are no. 1 at $282.5 mm, and the Red Sox are dead last at $105 mm.    The Yankees are at $250.5 mm with a whopping 54 prospects ranked at 35+ or higher.   The Rays and Blue Jays have not been graded yet.   Based on midseason grades from last year, the Rays figure to be at or near the top of the full 30-team list, while the Jays figure to be near the bottom.

When you look at the Yankees’ list, it’s really striking how it’s dominated by foreign players.    18 of their top 20, including their top 5, are foreign signees.

Edited by Frobby
Mistakenly said the Yankees were no. 1 at this point; it was actually the Pirates.

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Fangraphs has now graded 20 teams, including the entire AL East.    By their valuation system from last year, we rank 10th out of 20 so far.     As I expected, Tampa is off-the-charts good.    They have 55 prospects ranked 35+ or higher, most of any team graded so far (we have 40, which is still above average).    The dollar value of their system by last year's method is $329 mm if you exclude Wander Franco.       And the reason I excluded him is Fangraphs graded him an 80, the first time they have done that, and so I don't know what an 80 is supposed to be worth.    Last year they valued a 70 grade batter (Vlad Jr.) at $112 mm, so Franco will be valued higher than that.

Toronto graded better than I expected, slightly behind us at $200.5 mm.   We are at $206 mm; the mean valuation for all 20 teams graded so far is $209 mm, excluding 1/20th of whatever Franco is worth.

So far the top teams by this methodology are:

TBR $329mm+ (55 prospects 35+ or better)

PIT $282.5 mm (42)

MIA $281.5 mm (41)

ARI $277.5 mm (47)

DET $260.5 mm (39)

NYY $250.5 mm (54)

ATL $250 mm (27)

SEA $237 mm (38)

MIN $228 mm (42)

BAL $206 mm (40)

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45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs has now graded 20 teams, including the entire AL East.    By their valuation system from last year, we rank 10th out of 20 so far.     As I expected, Tampa is off-the-charts good.    They have 55 prospects ranked 35+ or higher, most of any team graded so far (we have 40, which is still above average).    The dollar value of their system by last year's method is $329 mm if you exclude Wander Franco.       And the reason I excluded him is Fangraphs graded him an 80, the first time they have done that, and so I don't know what an 80 is supposed to be worth.    Last year they valued a 70 grade batter (Vlad Jr.) at $112 mm, so Franco will be valued higher than that.

Toronto graded better than I expected, slightly behind us at $200.5 mm.   We are at $206 mm; the mean valuation for all 20 teams graded so far is $209 mm, excluding 1/20th of whatever Franco is worth.

So far the top teams by this methodology are:

TBR $329mm+ (55 prospects 35+ or better)

PIT $282.5 mm (42)

MIA $281.5 mm (41)

ARI $277.5 mm (47)

DET $260.5 mm (39)

NYY $250.5 mm (54)

ATL $250 mm (27)

SEA $237 mm (38)

MIN $228 mm (42)

BAL $206 mm (40)

For lots of reasons, TB is an organization to follow.  My preference is the quality quantity of their depth.  It almost seems like they don’t have many organizational type players with little or no future, especially compared to other teams.  Everyone gives something, it’s very eye-opening. 
I don’t know about their system like I do the O’s but they seem to end up with serious and developing talent every single time I look.  
 

Also, we need Tork to get that ranking up rapidly!

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Fangraphs has now put up its own chart similar to the one I was keeping:   https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summary?type=0&filter=&pos=&team=sfg&sort=-1,1

Their numbers vary slightly from mine and they have the Giants ahead of us, moving the Orioles down to 11th of the 20 teams they’ve graded.    They also show partial valuations of the 9 teams they haven’t graded, just based on the players those teams placed in their overall top 100 who are on those teams (each of whom was graded in that process).   Based on that, the Padres, Dodgers and White Sox are already ahead of us before the rest of their non-top 100 players have been graded.   You can’t tell if any other teams are likely to pass us.

By their model, our four players ranked 50 or higher are worth $138 mm, whereas the other 36 players that they graded at 35+ or higher are worth $69 mm.    Of the other teams that haven’t been fully graded, their grade 50 or higher players are worth less than ours, but some are close.    So, whether they pass us depends on how much depth Fangraphs thinks they have.

Oh yeah — they put a value on grade 80 Wander Franco — $180 mm.    He’s worth more than 7 teams’ entire farm systems all by himself, by this model.     No pressure though.     

Here’s an accompanying article:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-progress-farm-system-rankings-are-now-on-the-board/


  

 

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59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That isn't exactly promising considering they picked 1-1 last year and recently had a talent sell-off.

It’s an upgrade over last year but isn’t going to wow anyone.     For me it comes down to this: it’s really hard to have an elite farm system unless you are getting your share of the international talent.    And that takes time to (1) ramp up to acquire, and (2) bubble up to the stateside teams where they can be evaluated for purposes of a list like this.    I figure it’ll be at least 5 years before our MiL teams from the top down include our fair share of players we signed internationally.     

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s an upgrade over last year but isn’t going to wow anyone.     For me it comes down to this: it’s really hard to have an elite farm system unless you are getting your share of the international talent.    And that takes time to (1) ramp up to acquire, and (2) bubble up to the stateside teams where they can be evaluated for purposes of a list like this.    I figure it’ll be at least 5 years before our MiL teams from the top down include our fair share of players we signed internationally.     

They added 1-1 and didn't promote anyone of note.  Would have been a disaster for them not to have improved at all.

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Wow, that is insane valuation for Wander. I know he is #1 prospect but is *anyone* that much of a sure thing to be that good? 

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They added 1-1 and didn't promote anyone of note.  Would have been a disaster for them not to have improved at all.

Well, sure.    At some point maybe I’ll look at their 2019 list in detail and see what changed.   On a quick look, last year we only had 32 players ranked 35+, this year we have 40.     Stewart and Martin graduated from last year’s list and Jackson was returned to his team.    

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7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Wow, that is insane valuation for Wander. I know he is #1 prospect but is *anyone* that much of a sure thing to be that good? 

Maybe not, but if he’s as good as expected, he’ll be worth more than the $180 mm in surplus value.    So that’s factored in.   

I can’t wait to see that guy play — against other teams!
 

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