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Will Andrew Cashner show up in the O's camp in the next week?

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11 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t see the harm in signing him. I think it’s a mistake to assume Cobb will be healthy and Le Blanc or Wojo have much to offer. Probably a mistake to assume Cashner has much left to offer either but if throw enough quantity out there then hopefully at least one sticks, right?

At this point, the real mistake might be spending another dime on this team.  We're going to be a 100 loss team.  Why pour anymore resources into it?  

I'm fine with the whole let's throw the guys that are MLB "ready" out there and it's sink or swim.  Only Means emerged last year.  Hopefully we see more than one pitcher step up this year.  

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52 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You know I was going to ding you for the "know he's going to awful" part.  We don't really know that. 

For each of the past four years his FIP has been between 4.60 and 5.25.  He's thrown between 132 and 166 innings.  So there's a high likelihood that he's going to give you like 150 innings of a 5.00.  Is that awful?  I guess not, it's not random guy from AAA awful. 

Last year was a near best case scenario, where he had his normal high-4.00s FIP but got high-3.00s results.  It's about as likely that he does what he did with the Red Sox, where his ERA is around 6.00.

The only reason you sign Cashner is to have a somewhat higher confidence that you get 150 innings that aren't a total trainwreck.  There's almost no chance you flip him for a decent prospect, zero chance he helps contend, almost no chance he does something that warrants a place on a future roster.  You're spending a few $million for a bit more stability in the rotation on a 57-win team.

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34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 Here are their 2019 innings:

Walker   1 inning

Sanchez  131 IP,   5.89 ERA

Cahill    102IP   5.98 ERA

Santana  13 IP

Buchholz   59 IP  6.56 ERA

Estrada 23 IP    6.85 ERA

 

All the underlying numbers point to all of those pitchers being better options than Cashner. And they've all carried a heavy IP burden in the past. I'm not sure why you're just pointing out 2019. Are we really better off with 200 almost guaranteed terrible innings from Cashner then someone else? Anyone else...

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For each of the past four years his FIP has been between 4.60 and 5.25.  He's thrown between 132 and 166 innings.  So there's a high likelihood that he's going to give you like 150 innings of a 5.00.  Is that awful?  I guess not, it's not random guy from AAA awful. 

Last year was a near best case scenario, where he had his normal high-4.00s FIP but got high-3.00s results.  It's about as likely that he does what he did with the Red Sox, where his ERA is in the high-5.00s.

The only reason you sign Cashner is to have a somewhat higher confidence that you get 150 innings that aren't a total trainwreck.  There's almost no chance you flip him for a decent prospect, zero chance he helps contend, almost no chance he does something that warrants a place on a future roster.  You're spending a few $million for a bit more stability in the rotation on a 57-win team.

...but why would you sign him over any of the other free agent pitchers I listed if you're truly placing an emphasis on analytics. That's the main point I was trying to make. The only reason people (like Wildcard) are even suggesting it is because he has a prior history with the Orioles and they're familiar with his name. How to that approach to signing pitchers work out for us in regards to Chris Tillman? 

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3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At this point, the real mistake might be spending another dime on this team.  We're going to be a 100 loss team.  Why pour anymore resources into it?  

I'm fine with the whole let's throw the guys that are MLB "ready" out there and it's sink or swim.  Only Means emerged last year.  Hopefully we see more than one pitcher step up this year.  

This 1,000 times over. Invest that money in the future / infrastructure not a middling pitcher on the tail end of his career. 

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2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

All the underlying numbers point to all of those pitchers being better options than Cashner. And they've all carried a heavy IP burden in the past. I'm not sure why you're just pointing out 2019. Are we really better off with 200 almost guaranteed terrible innings from Cashner then someone else? Anyone else...

Sounds like you have your mind set on hating Cashner.   I say go for it.  But he data does not support what you are saying IMO.

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56 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You know I was going to ding you for the "know he's going to awful" part.  We don't really know that.  However, you do bring up good points, and list some guys who imo clearly have more upside.  So, you kinda change my mind.

Glad I finished strong!

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

For each of the past four years his FIP has been between 4.60 and 5.25.  He's thrown between 132 and 166 innings.  So there's a high likelihood that he's going to give you like 150 innings of a 5.00.  Is that awful?  I guess not, it's not random guy from AAA awful. 

Last year was a near best case scenario, where he had his normal high-4.00s FIP but got high-3.00s results.  It's about as likely that he does what he did with the Red Sox, where his ERA is around 6.00.

The only reason you sign Cashner is to have a somewhat higher confidence that you get 150 innings that aren't a total trainwreck.  There's almost no chance you flip him for a decent prospect, zero chance he helps contend, almost no chance he does something that warrants a place on a future roster.  You're spending a few $million for a bit more stability in the rotation on a 57-win team.

All of life is relative.

If you think that is awful, then I suggest you haven't been watching the last few Orioles' starting staffs.

Consider yourself lucky.

And yes, stability has some value.  It's the same reason they signed Iglesia.

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Still have no idea where the rabid hate for Cashner stems from. It's one of the weirder things I've seen from O's fans. Even Ubaldo seems to get a little more love around here. 

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2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...but why would you sign him over any of the other free agent pitchers I listed if you're truly placing an emphasis on analytics. That's the main point I was trying to make. The only reason people (like Wildcard) are even suggesting it is because he has a prior history with the Orioles and they're familiar with his name. How to that approach to signing pitchers work out for us in regards to Chris Tillman? 

It's not about analytics.  It's about bringing in someone to hopefully give you 150 innings that aren't a total disaster.  That's it.  None of the others are any/much more likely to do that, and we know Cashner is a decent fit on the team, with coaches, players, etc.

Actually, most of the other pitchers don't fit that mold.  Someone like Buchholz is a little more likely to be better per inning, but it's been four years since he threw as many innings as Cashner has in each of the last four years.

I'm not advocating for signing Cashner.  But it's kind of irrelevant.  He'll cost a million or two over a AAA free agent.  I'll trust Elias to make the judgment call as to whether that money could be better spent elsewhere.  The downside is that there's about a 30%(?) chance Cashner is just as unpitchable as some guy they find on the waiver wire in late March.

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4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...but why would you sign him over any of the other free agent pitchers I listed if you're truly placing an emphasis on analytics. That's the main point I was trying to make. The only reason people (like Wildcard) are even suggesting it is because he has a prior history with the Orioles and they're familiar with his name. How to that approach to signing pitchers work out for us in regards to Chris Tillman? 

I call BS.  Its not my familiarity with Cashner's name.  I know a lot of names.   It is that he seems to pitch better when Brocail is his coach for whatever reason.  Its also that the current starters on the roster do not appear to be good enough to get the O's through he season without rushing the AAA starters.    And that the others FA starters don't look as good as Cashner.

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13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For each of the past four years his FIP has been between 4.60 and 5.25.  He's thrown between 132 and 166 innings.  So there's a high likelihood that he's going to give you like 150 innings of a 5.00.  Is that awful?  I guess not, it's not random guy from AAA awful. 

Last year was a near best case scenario, where he had his normal high-4.00s FIP but got high-3.00s results.  It's about as likely that he does what he did with the Red Sox, where his ERA is around 6.00.

The only reason you sign Cashner is to have a somewhat higher confidence that you get 150 innings that aren't a total trainwreck.  There's almost no chance you flip him for a decent prospect, zero chance he helps contend, almost no chance he does something that warrants a place on a future roster.  You're spending a few $million for a bit more stability in the rotation on a 57-win team.

Mic drop! Conversation winner in my book. ;)

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33 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Andrew Cashner's xFIP last season was 5.11. In 2018 it was 5.19. In 2017 it was 5.30. If you're going to endorse a GM who fully supports advanced metrics you can't ignore then when you're advocating signing someone like Cashner. And with an average K per 9 rate of 5.65 over the last three seasons he has zero margin for error. Unless you're name is Greg Maddux or Orel Hershiser you can't succeed in the modern era with that type of strikeout rate. 

So, we anticipate Cashner will put up a 5ish ERA.    What are the alternatives?    Our starter ERA last year was 5.57, and we had 70 starts from pitchers who had ERA’s as starters over 6.00.    I’d prefer a pitcher with a 5ish ERA to that.

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