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Frobby

Sig talks analytics and player development

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12 hours ago, Pickles said:

Well it may have been both. But still, that kind of leads to the same question: Does pitching to your strengths improve your future ability to be a MLer?

I would think that having a better understanding of your strengths and weaknesses benefits you overall, so the answer is that it makes you better whichever level you're at.  

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12 hours ago, interloper said:

It's insane when atomic and others are like, "they're just here to lose!!!" It's like, do you understand how much WORK these guys have done in one single calendar year? It's stunning. Entire brand new departments, up and running. Swaths of new technology, installed. Entire development philosophies, implemented. Vast proprietary databases, compiled. Scores of talented individuals, hired. 

Like Moose says, the guy pisses excellence. But not only is he smart, he and everyone around him are motivated and appear to work extremely hard. Their message so far has been unified. Unity is not a word we could have used to describe the last tenure. The culture is a complete 180. 

Yeah if they are so good at this stuff we should see great improvement at major league level this year. Oh wait that won’t happen.  Look at the Astros last year. Zero home grown pitchers on the staff that contributed anything.  Anyone can toot their own horn and claim they are doing a bunch of great things. The proof is in the team record.
 

Also read that Astros changed settings on track an so their prospects looked like they had great spin rates and then traded them and low and behold low spin rates from these guys.

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7 hours ago, atomic said:

Yeah if they are so good at this stuff we should see great improvement at major league level this year. Oh wait that won’t happen.  Look at the Astros last year. Zero home grown pitchers on the staff that contributed anything.  Anyone can toot their own horn and claim they are doing a bunch of great things. The proof is in the team record.
 

Also read that Astros changed settings on track an so their prospects looked like they had great spin rates and then traded them and low and behold low spin rates from these guys.

That may be true about the Astros monkeying around with their stat collection.  I would assume that every MLB team when evaluating someone else's players/prospects is relying on their own scouting, data collection and analysis.  Also, you play half your games away from your own stadium, any funny stuff the Astros did would most likely be discovered. 

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7 hours ago, atomic said:

Yeah if they are so good at this stuff we should see great improvement at major league level this year. Oh wait that won’t happen.  Look at the Astros last year. Zero home grown pitchers on the staff that contributed anything.  Anyone can toot their own horn and claim they are doing a bunch of great things. The proof is in the team record.
 

Also read that Astros changed settings on track an so their prospects looked like they had great spin rates and then traded them and low and behold low spin rates from these guys.

They developed Keuchel and McCullers - but you're right, the Astros have struggled to develop starting pitching in comparison to the success they've had with positional players. They've really relied on trades to fill that need. Forrest Whitley is supposed to be a guy, but the drug suspension has set him back at a bit.

A big reason is they completely whiffed on their big pitching draft picks: Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. They also just traded JB Bukauskas. When you look at the most successful pitchers of the last decade, it's pretty surprising how many are early first round picks.

 

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8 hours ago, atomic said:

Yeah if they are so good at this stuff we should see great improvement at major league level this year. Oh wait that won’t happen.  Look at the Astros last year. Zero home grown pitchers on the staff that contributed anything.  Anyone can toot their own horn and claim they are doing a bunch of great things. The proof is in the team record.
 

Also read that Astros changed settings on track an so their prospects looked like they had great spin rates and then traded them and low and behold low spin rates from these guys.

It has to be a combination of analytics AND talent. Elias and Sig haven't been in charge long enough to stock the system with "their" guys and most of the players at the MLB level were inherited. You know that, but unfortunately it doesn't fit your anti-management agenda.

As for the Astros developing pitching prospects, are we just going to ignore guys like Lance McCullers and even Brad Peacock, who's spent the bulk of his career with the team? And they have young studs like Forest Whitley and Jose Urquidy waiting in the wings. And are we going to ignore all of their pitching reclamation projects? To think that analytics didn't play a part in the improvement of guys like Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, and even Wade Miley seems very naive to me. And while these pitchers may not have been developed in their system analytics most certainly played a part in helping the Astros identify and determine that they were untapped gems and worth trading for or targeting via free agency.  

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53 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

They developed Keuchel and McCullers - but you're right, the Astros have struggled to develop starting pitching in comparison to the success they've had with positional players. They've really relied on trades to fill that need. Forrest Whitley is supposed to be a guy, but the drug suspension has set him back at a bit.

A big reason is they completely whiffed on their big pitching draft picks: Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. They also just traded JB Bukauskas. When you look at the most successful pitchers of the last decade, it's pretty surprising how many are early first round picks.

 

...and analytics most certainly played a part in helping them identify what players to trade for.

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3 hours ago, Chromehill said:

That may be true about the Astros monkeying around with their stat collection.  I would assume that every MLB team when evaluating someone else's players/prospects is relying on their own scouting, data collection and analysis.  Also, you play half your games away from your own stadium, any funny stuff the Astros did would most likely be discovered. 

It was discovered.  GM's who traded for their players have claimed this.   You don't have to start your minor league pitchers who you are cheating with on the road.  

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2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It has to be a combination of analytics AND talent. Elias and Sig haven't been in charge long enough to stock the system with "their" guys and most of the players at the MLB level were inherited. You know that, but unfortunately it doesn't fit your anti-management agenda.

As for the Astros developing pitching prospects, are we just going to ignore guys like Lance McCullers and even Brad Peacock, who's spent the bulk of his career with the team? And they have young studs like Forest Whitley and Jose Urquidy waiting in the wings. And are we going to ignore all of their pitching reclamation projects? To think that analytics didn't play a part in the improvement of guys like Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, and even Wade Miley seems very naive to me. And while these pitchers may not have been developed in their system analytics most certainly played a part in helping the Astros identify and determine that they were untapped gems and worth trading for or targeting via free agency.  

The Orioles traded for Wade Miley. Should DD get credit for that?   Also the Astros have been accused of telling their pitchers to put stuff on the baseballs to increase spin rate.  A little pine tar here and a little pine tar there. And suddenly their pitching improves. 

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Interloper takes this like politics. He downvotes me for responding to his posts with my name mentioned.  Here is what counts in improvement. Wins and Losses in 2020. If they have such great skills at improving players we should have at least 70 wins in 2020.  Otherwise it is just a bunch of nonsense. DD took a 69 win team to 93 wins in 2012.  These geniuses with all their tools shouldn't have any problem getting the team to win 70 games right?  Yeah it won't happen because the way the won with the Astros is cheating.  

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10 minutes ago, atomic said:

The Orioles traded for Wade Miley. Should DD get credit for that?   Also the Astros have been accused of telling their pitchers to put stuff on the baseballs to increase spin rate.  A little pine tar here and a little pine tar there. And suddenly their pitching improves. 

I think you make some valid points, but I’m not really interested in relitigating things the Astros did.    The Orioles MiL pitchers showed significant improvement last year under the Elias regime.    It remains to be seen how that will translate to the big leagues as our minor leagues mature and then graduate.  We’ll see a trickle of that this year and then quite a lot next year.    I think the end of the 2021 season will be a good time to take stock of whether our changed drafting and development methods are yielding results.    Until then, it will be difficult to tell for sure, though the early signs from last year look pretty good.   

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On ‎2‎/‎10‎/‎2020 at 9:38 AM, Pickles said:

I guess I should have been more specific.

I can see the advantage of some of the high-def cameras, etc.

But I remember reading last year about increased advanced scouting for MiLs, particularly pitchers.  That's what I want to know about.  Does knowing that non-prospect on Durham can't hit a curveball, so throw him curveballs, actually lead to a guy being a better ML pitcher, or just lead to better MiL stats, like we saw almost across the board last year?

They must think it does.  I guess I want to know why.  Other than maybe increased trade value of our players, which I think wouldn't be a lasting thing.

These are good questions.  I think to understand what our new front office is trying to do with the technology is multi-fold.

First, having a pitcher ditch certain pitches are that not effective and throw more of his pitches that are effective is analytics.  These analytics also help tell one about strengths and weaknesses of opposing hitters.  Analytics.  I spoke with an Aberdeen pitcher last year and he said after a start he receives a report that includes 16 different statistics on every pitch he threw!  He had been taught how to analyze that report.

Second, there are multiple technologies available to analyze various aspects of a player's physical motions.  Cameras and sensors can be used to analyze a pitcher's windup to correct any flaws/motions in the windup that negatively impact the result.  Unlocking some of these flaws can unleash more MPH on a fastball or a better spin rate or get a pitcher to get alter the release point on pitches.  Many of these corrections might have been noticed by a strong pitching coach, but I expect the technology is infinitely better in discerning small issues as well as an easier tool to show a pitcher how to improve.  There are also sensors and body suits worn by hitters to remove flaws in the way they coil, uncoil, stride, balance and more in their hitting motion that might improve the swing path  in the zone, improve bat speed or something else.

Third, Astroball is a fascinating read on where baseball technologies were a few years ago.  The technologies and the results might tell one that a pitcher might need help locating a certain pitch.  The question was whether technologies, training or other existed or could be developed to help improve a pitcher's control or pitch location.

The applications and potential for these technologies goes to all levels of the game.  For instance, imagine drafting a toolsy, athletic college hitter with mediocre results knowing that there could be implemented swing changes to dramatically improve results.  Those who get ahead with the technology and data analysis in baseball can find themselves with an impactful competitive advantage and I think it is fair to say that in 2017 the Os were at a competitive disadvantage compared to the better teams in baseball in their technologies and data analysis. 

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12 minutes ago, atomic said:

Interloper takes this like politics. He downvotes me for responding to his posts with my name mentioned.  Here is what counts in improvement. Wins and Losses in 2020. If they have such great skills at improving players we should have at least 70 wins in 2020.  Otherwise it is just a bunch of nonsense. DD took a 69 win team to 93 wins in 2012.  These geniuses with all their tools shouldn't have any problem getting the team to win 70 games right?  Yeah it won't happen because the way the won with the Astros is cheating.  

You know what's a bunch of nonsense?  Hiring Mike Elias with an explicit plan to build a franchise to compete in 2022 and beyond, and measuring him solely by maximizing the Orioles' wins and losses in years where he said they wouldn't compete.

It's nonsense to express your anger at the agreed-upon plan by complaining incessantly that an entirely different plan isn't being executed.

 

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21 minutes ago, atomic said:

Interloper takes this like politics. He downvotes me for responding to his posts with my name mentioned.  Here is what counts in improvement. Wins and Losses in 2020. If they have such great skills at improving players we should have at least 70 wins in 2020.  Otherwise it is just a bunch of nonsense. DD took a 69 win team to 93 wins in 2012.  These geniuses with all their tools shouldn't have any problem getting the team to win 70 games right?  Yeah it won't happen because the way the won with the Astros is cheating.  

You’re setting up false criteria, and you know it.    Elias has made it as clear as can be that wins for the major league team are not his focus right now.     No this team won’t win 70 games this year.    I don’t even know if they’ll win as many as last year.    And I’m not worried about it.    The winning comes down the road.

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8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You know what's a bunch of nonsense?  Hiring Mike Elias with an explicit plan to build a franchise to compete in 2022 and beyond, and measuring him solely by maximizing the Orioles' wins and losses in years where he said they wouldn't compete.

It's nonsense to express your anger at the agreed-upon plan by complaining incessantly that an entirely different plan isn't being executed.

 

If these guys are helping the players get better than they should be getting better.  DD came in here and brought in guys to help the players improve.  He turned around Tillman.  Britton became the best reliever in the game.  

What is nonsense is to say that the team won't be better until 2022.  What are these guys doing than until 2022? Are they purposely not making the pitchers and hitters better until then?  I am laughing hysterically at your post.  They are doing such a great job improving pitchers but we won't see any effect until 2022?  That is the most hysterically funny thing I have seen posted on here. 

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’re setting up false criteria, and you know it.    Elias has made it as clear as can be that wins for the major league team are not his focus right now.     No this team won’t win 70 games this year.    I don’t even know if they’ll win as many as last year.    And I’m not worried about it.    The winning comes down the road.

What?  The players they are helping in the minors aren't going to improve.  They were with them at AAA last year.  Did they not help these players develop and improve?  You guys make me laugh. It is either they are helping the players improve or they are not.  Pick one.  Improving players means more wins when you are at the Orioles level of ineptitude.  

Oh don't judge my work until 4 years down the road. Just trust me we are all geniuses down here helping the players get better.  But wait one day you will see results.  Funniest thing I have ever heard. 

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