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Frobby

My Kingdom for a Horse

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To make a deep Playoff run, you need an Ace leading the rotation and a #2 that's almost as good.  The rest of the rotation really only needs to be .500.

Look no farther than last year's playoff teams:

Wash: Scherzer, Strasburg

Hou: Cole, Verlander

LA: Kershaw, Buehler

Although these teams all had a #3 that was pretty darned good too...

 

The O's haven't really had an ace since Mussina.  They don't exactly grow on trees.   Even when you pick at the very top of the draft, you can be derailed by injuries and bad luck.   Remember Ben McDonald?  Mark Prior, etc.....

Still, I think you have to keep trying your luck.  I'd be tickled pink if we can pluck Emerson Hancock this year and Kumar Rocker next....

 

 

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By the way, was anyone else surprised to see Brad Radke at 45.2 rWAR?   I doubt I would have pegged him to even be in the 30+ club.    

A guy I didn’t specify but who also surprises me is Gio Gonzalez, who’s at 29.2 rWAR.     He’s had a good career but I wouldn’t think he was on the cusp of 30 WAR.
 

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That's a damn nice post you made there, impressive.  I remember road tripping to Hagerstown (when the Suns were AA team) to see Mussina pitch before he made it up to the big leagues.  He was special.  Sad that all of those prospects since have all fizzled but we shall see what is to come from this latest batch.  Spring brings hope eternal! 

I do remember Radke fronting the Twins and being quite a dominant pitcher for several years. 

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20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In other words, an average team should get a 40+ WAR guy about once in 30 years, one other 30+ guy in that timeframe, and a 20+ every 6 or 7 years.

So in 30 years we've either drafted or acquired very early: Mussina (40+), Arrieta (25.5, close to 30, prob won't make it), Ben McDonald (20.8, he barely pitched in '89 so I'm adding him), Zachk Britton (14.1, may yet get to 20), Eduardo Rodriguez (13.6, may get to 20). Davies is at 8, Hader is at 6.6, they have a long way but are pretty young. Gausman (10.2) and Bundy (6.8) also have a bunch of work to do. 

Others above 15 were Guthrie (17.8, had rookie status with us so I'll count him), Bedard (17.3), Armando Benitez (17.3), Arthur Rhodes (15.2).

Frankly this is better than I imagined, given that I've always felt our pitching development was pretty awful... Of course two of our top 3 left the org 20+ years ago, and most of the other WAR above was amassed on other clubs.

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6 minutes ago, makoman said:

So in 30 years we've either drafted or acquired very early: Mussina (40+), Arrieta (25.5, close to 30, prob won't make it), Ben McDonald (20.8, he barely pitched in '89 so I'm adding him), Zachk Britton (14.1, may yet get to 20), Eduardo Rodriguez (13.6, may get to 20). Davies is at 8, Hader is at 6.6, they have a long way but are pretty young. Gausman (10.2) and Bundy (6.8) also have a bunch of work to do. 

Others above 15 were Guthrie (17.8, had rookie status with us so I'll count him), Bedard (17.3), Armando Benitez (17.3), Arthur Rhodes (15.2).

Frankly this is better than I imagined, given that I've always felt our pitching development was pretty awful... Of course two of our top 3 left the org 20+ years ago, and most of the other WAR above was amassed on other clubs.

Bedard had 12.8 in 5 seasons with the Orioles and had great stuff, same he was an arse, and then injuries hit him hard.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

By the way, was anyone else surprised to see Brad Radke at 45.2 rWAR?   I doubt I would have pegged him to even be in the 30+ club.    

A guy I didn’t specify but who also surprises me is Gio Gonzalez, who’s at 29.2 rWAR.     He’s had a good career but I wouldn’t think he was on the cusp of 30 WAR.
 

His name jumped out at me immediately.  Also Javier Vasquez.  Great list, great post. Thanks!

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3 hours ago, jjnono said:

Love this post.  How do I rep?

Go to the ^ at the bottom right of @Frobby 's opening post and place cursor over it.  Also, you may rate topic at the top left of page.

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5 hours ago, doccat said:

To make a deep Playoff run, you need an Ace leading the rotation and a #2 that's almost as good.  The rest of the rotation really only needs to be .500.

Look no farther than last year's playoff teams:

Wash: Scherzer, Strasburg

Hou: Cole, Verlander

LA: Kershaw, Buehler

Although these teams all had a #3 that was pretty darned good too...

 

The O's haven't really had an ace since Mussina.  They don't exactly grow on trees.   Even when you pick at the very top of the draft, you can be derailed by injuries and bad luck.   Remember Ben McDonald?  Mark Prior, etc.....

Still, I think you have to keep trying your luck.  I'd be tickled pink if we can pluck Emerson Hancock this year and Kumar Rocker next....

 

 

On the other hand, remember that when we faced Detroit in 2014, we faced, and beat, three consecutive Cy Young winners.

Immediately after that, well, let’s not talk about that...

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

On the other hand, remember that when we faced Detroit in 2014, we faced, and beat, three consecutive Cy Young winners.

Immediately after that, well, let’s not talk about that...

It’s not like KC had a bunch of ace starters, either.   In 2014 or 2015.   

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s not like KC had a bunch of ace starters, either.   In 2014 or 2015.   

Grrrr I SAID ,” Let’s not talk about that”

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