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Alex Cobb 2020

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Can Cobb stay healthy and effective in 2020?

He’s looked really good,” Brocail said. “He came in during mini camp in January and threw for us. We put him on all the units to see how the pitches were looking and very, very surprising to us how well everything came out.

“Look at the hop with his fastball. This is a guy that throws two-seamers, starting to throw a four-seamer. Split looks phenomenal. Has one of the better curveballs in the game and doesn’t utilize it. Our plan with him is (he should) start to use that as a weapon. This is a curveball that, 95 percent of guys that throw curveballs would want to have in the game, and he just doesn’t utilize it because he has such a good split-finger and a fastball attack.”

According to brooksbaseball.net, Cobb threw his curveball a career-high 34 percent of the time in 2017, when he went 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA in 28 starts for Tampa Bay. He posted a WHIP of 1.22 and opponents hit just .232 off his curveball. He threw the pitch 22 percent in 2018 and just 17 percent last year, granted that was in just the three starts.

“Well, it’s going to give him the ability to throw the curveball and four-seamer so it will tunnel together and then the two-seam to both sides. One with a devastating split-finger,” Brocail said. “This is a guy I’m really looking forward to seeing how well the season goes, especially early. I think he’s going to get out of the gates and really do a fine job.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/02/doug-brocails-strong-praise-for-john-means-and-alex-cobb.html

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This guy...

I correctly predicted the Orioles would sign Cobb about a month or two before it happened, here on OH. This guy has been such a disappointment, I feel less smart for having done so.

Hoping he can give the team some good innings this year. But my hopes are low.

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Biggest predictor of injuries is past injuries.  I don’t hold out much hope for Cobb.  If he makes it through the season without getting injured and an ERA under 5 it would exceed my highest expectations. 

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Flat out Alex Cobb is incapable of giving you 30 starts and 180 innings (which is about the average for full time starting pitchers).  I think Cobb will give us between 20-25 starts (while mixing in pitching blisters and lat strains) which puts him in the 140 inning range.  I think he will pitch to about a 4.00 ERA with some starts being spectacular but not consistent.  In many ways I view Cobb the same as Ubaldo.  Both of their careers will be ending in Baltimore as everyone realizes they are overpaid for mostly inconsistent mediocre results.  Long and short of it, he is 100% untradeable regardless of results unless we pick up a good portion of his contract.

Edited by fitzi22

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I'm holding out hope for him. He may end up being a pleasant surprise this season. It's sad that he hasn't been healthy for us, but it's not too late for him to turn things around. I'm not overly optimistic, but he has the stuff to bring stability to the rotation, and perhaps bring in a better return than what we got for Cashner.

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34 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

Flat out Alex Cobb is incapable of giving you 30 starts and 180 innings (which is about the average for full time starting pitchers).  I think Cobb will give us between 20-25 starts (while mixing in pitching blisters and lat strains) which puts him in the 140 inning range.  I think he will pitch to about a 4.00 ERA with some starts being spectacular but not consistent.  In many ways I view Cobb the same as Ubaldo.  Both of their careers will be ending in Baltimore as everyone realizes they are overpaid for mostly inconsistent mediocre results.  Long and short of it, he is 100% untradeable regardless of results unless we pick up a good portion of his contract.

If he pitches well, he will be very tradeable, imho.  Imagine a scenario where Dodgers or Yankees or Astros  are in first and then have a 3-4 starter go down for the season...and Cobb is pitching better than Cashner ever was in 2019....Cobb would not onlynbe very tradeable, he would likely return better prospects than Cashner and the money would pose little obstacle, imho.

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2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

If he pitches well, he will be very tradeable, imho.  Imagine a scenario where Dodgers or Yankees or Astros  are in first and then have a 3-4 starter go down for the season...and Cobb is pitching better than Cashner ever was in 2019....Cobb would not onlynbe very tradeable, he would likely return better prospects than Cashner and the money would pose little obstacle, imho.

He's got another year on the deal after this one. 

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He's got another year on the deal after this one. 

Yes, and for the Yankees or Dodgers or whomever, etc. under that thpe of need scenario, I don’t see it as posing much of an obstacle to a deal.  Maybe a bit less of a prospect or maybe a bit more, depending on how much the immediate need turns out to be and how well he is pitching they might even like him for another year.  

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6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Yes, and for the Yankees or Dodgers or whomever, etc. under that thpe of need scenario, I don’t see it as posing much of an obstacle to a deal.  Maybe a bit less of a prospect or maybe a bit more, depending on how much the immediate need turns out to be and how well he is pitching they might even like him for another year.  

I don't see it.  Teams these days want to stay under the cap, they don't want to tie up 15M in 2021 for Cobb.  I think the 2021 season puts a damper on any return.

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1 hour ago, fitzi22 said:

Flat out Alex Cobb is incapable of giving you 30 starts and 180 innings (which is about the average for full time starting pitchers).  I think Cobb will give us between 20-25 starts (while mixing in pitching blisters and lat strains) which puts him in the 140 inning range.  I think he will pitch to about a 4.00 ERA with some starts being spectacular but not consistent.  In many ways I view Cobb the same as Ubaldo.  Both of their careers will be ending in Baltimore as everyone realizes they are overpaid for mostly inconsistent mediocre results.  Long and short of it, he is 100% untradeable regardless of results unless we pick up a good portion of his contract.

I don’t know if Cobb is flat-out incapable of throwing 30 starts and 180 innings, but the fact is he never has done either of those things to this point in his career, so it would be foolish to count on him doing those things this year.    I think I’d take 140 innings at sub-4.00 ERA from him in a heartbeat and be happy about it.    I don’t think of him as being inconsistent in the way Ubaldo was, though.    Ubaldo was healthier but the fluctuations in his performance were greater than what Cobb’s typically have been in his career.   I think of Cobb as a guy who who pitch 5-7 innings and allow 2-3 runs most of the time, without many sub-5 inning games or spectacular shutout performances.    Ubaldo on the other hand would be spectacular one day and horrible the next — the latter too often as an Oriole.   I realize Cobb also has had a lot of bad starts as an Oriole, but I don’t think he had a track record of inconsistency before that.   

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I’m kind of surprised at how little I care about Cobb. If he’s good, so what. He has no trade value, we’re going to pay all his money, and at the end of the season he’s going to go away. If he’s bad, well we’re still going to pay all his money, and at the end of the season he’s going to go away. I’m kind of disappointed,  because I’d rather see what the guys in the minors can do. We’ve got probably 10 pitchers who have a reasonable chance of making their debuts this summer And doing well, I’d really like to just let them try.

Edited by Philip

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9 hours ago, Philip said:

I’m kind of surprised at how little I care about Cobb. If he’s good, so what. He has no trade value, we’re going to pay all his money, and at the end of the season he’s going to go away. If he’s bad, well we’re still going to pay all his money, and at the end of the season he’s going to go away. I’m kind of disappointed,  because I’d rather see what the guys in the minors can do. We’ve got probably 10 pitchers who have a reasonable chance of making their debuts this summer And doing well, I’d really like to just let them try.

As mentioned repeatedly in this thread, Cobb is signed through 2021.

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