I think there's a fairly high attrition rate for each age or year of pitcher. If you started at age 10 and assumed that 5% of the pitchers get hurt in some way that essentially precludes them from being major leaguer, by 28 you end up with 40% of your original pool left. I think 5% is way too low. If it's 10% you only have 15% of your starting pool left. At 15% injury rate you're left with 5% of the pool.
I've read that something like 45% of pitchers have some kind of noticeable injury in any given year. Obviously not all serious enough to disrupt a career.
I think that if you could cut pitcher injuries to 50% of their current rate you'd have an essentially endless supply of good pitchers for 30 MLB teams. They'd have to change the rules to keep the strikeout rate below 15 per nine.
I'll disagree. Obviously guys get hurt but I think most of the ones that wash out would with or without the injuries. I suppose a few would make it to the majors, due to others getting hurt, if they stayed completely healthy but I don't assign much value to that. Mostly I think it's lack of ability as they raise in levels.
It's not that I disagree, it's that I admit that Elias has information that we don't have, including information from his player development staff and scouts. Along with his own experience in both areas.
For the record, I have no strong opinion on AR's assignments last year and agree with you on Mountcastle. In fact, I think Mountcastle should be in Baltimore now. I also think Sisco should be playing every time a right-hander pitches. But, I do think Elias has reasons for the decisions that he makes and he never shares them with me which pisses me off. 🙂