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Sir_Loin

Davis is definitley jacked this year...

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1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

There is also a huge mental aspect here.

If he can manage past that, maybe there is a small glimmer of hope.

I am not in denial, I get there are some very long odds here, of anything of at least replacement level play.

I’m in the same place you are.    I’m not expecting significant improvement, but I’m not flat out thinking it’s impossible.   

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Honestly, I think the best case scenario is a .180/.280/.400 type season and while that is a massive improvement over the last two years, it's still not where you need him to be to be useful. The problem is, however, it may just be enough to allow him to continue to hold on to his 26-man roster spot. I think the best case scenario for the team is similar results to what he got in 2018-2019 with the Orioles finally giving up and cutting bait once Mountcastle is ready.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Putting aside all the strikeouts, here is Davis’ ISO the last 5 years:

.300

.238

.208

.128

.147

Here’s his HR/FB%: 

21.1%

19.3%

16.8%

10.2%

11.9%

All that decline is unrelated to how often he struck out.    If he’s able to hit the ball harder and further, it can only help.    Now, will it make him above replacement value, which is basically where he was in 2017 when he had a .208 ISO and 16.8 HR%?   I doubt it.    


 


 

 

Here's Davis statcast numbers since 2015: (The ball was juiced in 2019 so the slight improvements are really still a degraded state when put into consideration to everyone else's jump)

           Barrel %
2015  17.6 (top 1% of league)
2016  15.1 (top 3% of league)
2017  12.8 (top 9% of league)
2018  10.2
2019  10.5

           Exit Velocity
2015  91.8 (top 6% of league)
2016  90.8
2017  89.9
2018  89.0
2019  89.1

            K%
2015   31.0 (bottom 2%)
2016   32.9 (bottom 1%)
2017   37.2
2018   36.8
2019   39.5

        xwOBA 
2015  .390 (top 3%)
2016  .351
2017  .312
2018  .239
2019  .263 (bottom 1%) 

So what we have here is he's hitting ball less hard each year, barreling less, and striking out more. 

Last season he hit fastballs better (.243 BA/.248 xBA) than he has since 2015 (.295 BA/.273 xBA) but basically couldn't hit breaking (.095 BA/.141 xBA) and offspeed pitches (.103/.191 xBA) which tells me he was sitting dead red most of the time which could because his bat is slowing (drop in EV and barreling suggest this as well).

 

 

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The annual Davis ST illness has struck. He usually gets sick right at the start of camp. Lots of other people are sick, too, so I'm not really throwing shade. 

Just hope he doesn't lose all those gains!

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26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's Davis statcast numbers since 2015: (The ball was juiced in 2019 so the slight improvements are really still a degraded state when put into consideration to everyone else’s jump.

Thanks.    I also cited Davis’ average fly ball distance from Statcast in another thread:  215 , 212, 202, 189 and 193.   Same message.   

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

The annual Davis ST illness has struck. He usually gets sick right at the start of camp. Lots of other people are sick, too, so I'm not really throwing shade. 

Just hope he doesn't lose all those gains!

 

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40 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Not remotely funny.

 

I laughed.  I mean it is highly suspect gaining that much muscle that quickly. 

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

The annual Davis ST illness has struck. He usually gets sick right at the start of camp. Lots of other people are sick, too, so I'm not really throwing shade. 

Just hope he doesn't lose all those gains!

LOL, this guy is really something.

The only thing you can bet he'll show up for is his paycheck

Of course with direct deposit he doesn't have to be there for that either.

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1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

LOL, this guy is really something.

The only thing you can bet he'll show up for is his paycheck

Of course with direct deposit he doesn't have to be there for that either.

If he's sick I don't want him getting the useful players ill.

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16 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

To be fair, the bug has hit several of the players.

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he's sick I don't want him getting the useful players ill.

Exactly, I think they are doing this with any player showing the signs of illness.

Seams like it happens just about every spring camp.

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's Davis statcast numbers since 2015: (The ball was juiced in 2019 so the slight improvements are really still a degraded state when put into consideration to everyone else's jump)

           Barrel %
2015  17.6 (top 1% of league)
2016  15.1 (top 3% of league)
2017  12.8 (top 9% of league)
2018  10.2
2019  10.5

           Exit Velocity
2015  91.8 (top 6% of league)
2016  90.8
2017  89.9
2018  89.0
2019  89.1

            K%
2015   31.0 (bottom 2%)
2016   32.9 (bottom 1%)
2017   37.2
2018   36.8
2019   39.5

        xwOBA 
2015  .390 (top 3%)
2016  .351
2017  .312
2018  .239
2019  .263 (bottom 1%) 

So what we have here is he's hitting ball less hard each year, barreling less, and striking out more. 

Last season he hit fastballs better (.243 BA/.248 xBA) than he has since 2015 (.295 BA/.273 xBA) but basically couldn't hit breaking (.095 BA/.141 xBA) and offspeed pitches (.103/.191 xBA) which tells me he was sitting dead red most of the time which could because his bat is slowing (drop in EV and barreling suggest this as well).

 

 

That 2019 strike out rate is what makes me think the muscle gain is pretty irrelevant.  If you can't hit the ball. If you count in his walks and hit by pitches.  He is not even hitting the ball 51.2% of the time he comes up to the plate.  Part of why I really don't like guys like Davis is they are so boring to watch.  Even in his best season 42 percent of the time he didn't hit the ball.

Compare that to Adam Jones on a downward season of 2017 where he didn't hit the ball in 23 percent of his plate appearances.  Guys like Davis just ruin the sport for me.  I can't stand watching them.  Even if he has some sort of comeback season where he hits .220 and has 25 home runs it won't be enjoyable for me. 

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4 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Honestly, I think the best case scenario is a .180/.280/.400 type season and while that is a massive improvement over the last two years, it's still not where you need him to be to be useful. The problem is, however, it may just be enough to allow him to continue to hold on to his 26-man roster spot. I think the best case scenario for the team is similar results to what he got in 2018-2019 with the Orioles finally giving up and cutting bait once Mountcastle is ready.

And sadly, just enough for him to hold on to his dreams of being a legitimate ML player...

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7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Maybe I’m a sucker, but I buy the confidence thing. He’s a big dude, that’s always been jacked, not having that muscle could’ve impacted his mindset. For some reason he tried to become Doug menkiewicz.

Kudos to Davis for putting on 25lbs of muscle in like 4.5 months. 

You don't put on 25 lbs in 4. 1/2 months naturally...

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