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Philip

Are we the best of the worst?

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Our offense has lots of upside, especially when Mountcastle comes up, and we have a good chance to rank in the middle of the pack. 

If we had any type of a rotation, our bullpen could have upside as well. I don’t think we will have that luxury though. 

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12 hours ago, weams said:

Who knew how bad the Tigers truly were?

The last two years, the AL Central as a division were over 100 games under .500. When about half your games are within your division, which guarantees a .500 result, it is incredible. Won, loss record may be the simplest way to determine the worst team, but it is seriously flawed. For a game that is so stat orientated it is certainly overlooked in this particular category.

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Last year I predicted a 63-99 record and we know how that ended. I'll be surprised if we add to our win total of 54. Can't see anyone worse.

Edited by BamaOsFan

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We are the worst team.  May not finish that way but the Orioles didnt even really try to add appreciable major league talent this offseason (not even when it could be had for cheap) outside of iglesias.  They got worse by trading Bundy and releasing Villar.  I predict they will trade Givens either before the season or early in it.  I think Hanser turns back into an egg.  They have no starters.  Alex Cobb has one good season since 2014.  They have no incentive this year to bring up any appreciable talent.

Boston is still good without Mookie.  The yankees are in a "buy a championship" year.  The Ray's made very good offseason moves.  And Toronto has a trio of INF prospects about ready to play their first full season together.  I would put the Orioles over under for division wins at 18 and I think that may be generous. (24 last year).

 

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I still think we'll be improved.  

Offense:  improved [relative to the league average that is, if they un-juice the balls a bit we could score the same # of runs but be improved]

Defense:  Improved (SS, CF -- two of the most important positions)

Bullpen:  Improved (pretty much have to be, we were nearly historically bad last year, even with regression to the mean we improve, and we will have Harvey for a full season)

Starting:   Probably worse

Division competition:  Yankees as good or better than 2019;  Tampa about the same;  Red Sox quite a bit worse; Jays better -- it's pretty much a push

Interleague competition:  We still play the Nats as always; but otherwise we play the NL Central instead of the NL West last year.   NLC lacks a dominant team and has a potentially very bad Pirate team;  NL West last year had a great Dodger team and a couple other competitive teams, but a bad Giant team.   I think we get a tiny bit easier schedule here but not very significant.

So I see only one factor -- albeit a really big one in starting pitching -- where we will be worse this year.

So I'm going to say we have a better record than last year's 54-108.   The question to me is how much better?   I'd love to see us avoid 100 losses.

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I’m not a gambler, so I don’t usually pay attention to the over and under predictions.

What is the over under for the Orioles? I thought it was about 55.5? I would definitely take the over on that and mortgage the house on it.

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40 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m not a gambler, so I don’t usually pay attention to the over and under predictions.

What is the over under for the Orioles? I thought it was about 55.5? I would definitely take the over on that and mortgage the house on it.

Spoken like someone who has no attachment to money.

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3 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Will they win 57 games this season?  Asking for a friend.  The current line is 56.5.

I wouldn’t bet either way on that line.    But if you ask me to choose, I’ll say a game or two over.    

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Just now, Il BuonO said:

Spoken like someone who has no attachment to money.

You should never see "I'm not a gambler" and I'd...mortgage the house on it." in the same paragraph.

I use to think I knew enough about baseball that I could hedge a few bets here and there and make a profit.  These days I figure a lot of the serious money has computer analytics behind it.

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2 hours ago, SteveA said:

I still think we'll be improved.  

Starting: Probably worse

So I see only one factor -- albeit a really big one in starting pitching -- where we will be worse this year.

So I'm going to say we have a better record than last year's 54-108.   The question to me is how much better?   I'd love to see us avoid 100 losses.

It’s all about the pitching.

Just as bad as last year.

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You should never see "I'm not a gambler" and I'd...mortgage the house on it." in the same paragraph.

I use to think I knew enough about baseball that I could hedge a few bets here and there and make a profit.  These days I figure a lot of the serious money has computer analytics behind it.

That helps, but the biggest mistake I see is money management.

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There are at least 20 teams in MLB that have a chance to go to the playoffs this year.  A lot of parity in the middle.  The top is really good and the bottom is really bad.  That has to make you a little optimistic.  A little less so when you consider that we have to play in the AL east. 

We are the worst of the worst on paper IMO. 

 

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