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Frobby

Ryan Mountcastle 2020

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You know, Trumbo was a lousy fielder but I feel that 1.6 rWAR really understates his value to that team.   I just feel like he came through in key situations a lot that year.   I don’t think we would have made the playoffs without him.   So shoot me.

The team WAR matches pretty much with the wins that year. 

40.4 team war + 48 wins = 88.4 Wins vs 89 actual. 

Also his WAR was 1.9 not 1.6.

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55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You know, Trumbo was a lousy fielder but I feel that 1.6 rWAR really understates his value to that team.   I just feel like he came through in key situations a lot that year.   I don’t think we would have made the playoffs without him.   So shoot me.

In 2016 he had an .850 OPS overall.

In late/close situations he had a .706.

With two outs and RISP he had a .812.

In tie games he had an .848.

When the Orioles were behind he had an .825.

In high leverage situations he had an .836.

In the 8th inning he had a .726.

In the 9th inning he had a .658.

In low leverage situations he had a .705.

It seems he was at his very best in moderate leverage situations in the middle of the game.

 

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26 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

You say below average but I see above replacement. What am I missing?

What Tony said.  Two wins in full time play is about average.

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Also 1.6 x 25 = 40.  So he was an average player of a 89 win team.  If you can get just 25 guys like Trumbo that year you make the wildcard. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You know, Trumbo was a lousy fielder but I feel that 1.6 rWAR really understates his value to that team.   I just feel like he came through in key situations a lot that year.   I don’t think we would have made the playoffs without him.   So shoot me.

I possibly agree about making the playoffs, if only because it was razor thin that we even made it that year, and 47 HR is 47 HR. Still, my memory is a lot different. I recall a lot of solo HR when the game was out of reach one way or the other. I remember thinking, "Why are you hitting it 500 feet when we are down 3 and need a baserunner?"

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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I possibly agree about making the playoffs, if only because it was razor thin that we even made it that year, and 47 HR is 47 HR. Still, my memory is a lot different. I recall a lot of solo HR when the game was out of reach one way or the other. I remember thinking, "Why are you hitting it 500 feet when we are down 3 and need a baserunner?"

Even down three a dong is better than a single.

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12 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also 1.6 x 25 = 40.  So he was an average player of a 89 win team.  If you can get just 25 guys like Trumbo that year you make the wildcard. 

In today's game you have about 13 roster spots devoted to pitchers.  That means about eight relievers at any one time.  There is no way on earth that you're going to have eight relievers and the back end of a starting staff average 1.6 wins per slot.  The 2012 Orioles had an historically good pen and got about 12-13 wins out of pitchers who were primarily relievers.  A typical team will get maybe half that.  Or 1.0 or fewer wins for about 1/3 of the roster.  The '19 Yanks won 103 games and had just three relievers worth 1.5 or more wins.

Also you'll have the equivalent of three more roster spots that will be bench players and play half time or less.

So in the end your regular position players and starting pitchers usually need to average over 2.0 wins to get you above .500.

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scOtt is able to watch the game on the Pirates TV network from where he lives in Pennsylvania, and he reports on the game thread that Mountcastle has made two solid receiving plays at 1st, a great stretch to catch a throw from Richie Martin who had made a great diving stop, and a good scoop of a bad throw from someone else.

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even down three a dong is better than a single.

That's why I have all my little leadoff guys bat in the 9th, and only bring in Trumbo when the bases are loaded.  What's that?  No, I don't follow the rules.

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2 hours ago, SteveA said:

On a lot of HS teams, whoever the best athlete is winds up at shortstop.

The Orioles drafted about 20 SS's last year.   Probably 5 of them actually wind up at that position.

But of all of those, you dont expect weak arm to be the issue where they arent there now.

Most SS in HS also pitch too, like Cal Jr.

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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In today's game you have about 13 roster spots devoted to pitchers.  That means about eight relievers at any one time.  There is no way on earth that you're going to have eight relievers and the back end of a starting staff average 1.6 wins per slot.  The 2012 Orioles had an historically good pen and got about 12-13 wins out of pitchers who were primarily relievers.  A typical team will get maybe half that.  Or 1.0 or fewer wins for about 1/3 of the roster.  The '19 Yanks won 103 games and had just three relievers worth 1.5 or more wins.

Also you'll have the equivalent of three more roster spots that will be bench players and play half time or less.

So in the end your regular position players and starting pitchers usually need to average over 2.0 wins to get you above .500.

The 2016 Orioles had 19.7 WAR from their position players.  Trumbo had 5th most WAR among position players.  After Manny Machado's WAR was subtracted you 12.8 WAR. Divide that by 8 (lets ignore the bench) You have 1.6 WAR From the remaining players.  

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

The 2016 Orioles had 19.7 WAR from their position players.  Trumbo had 5th most WAR among position players.  After Manny Machado's WAR was subtracted you 12.8 WAR. Divide that by 8 (lets ignore the bench) You have 1.6 WAR From the remaining players.  

Okay.  That year the O's outscored their opponents by 29 runs.  They had the characteristics of an 84-win team, but due to sequencing, or bullpen leverage or dumb luck they won 89.

If all of your starting nine plus your five pitching starters each were 1.6-win players you're not going to the playoffs.  You're probably finishing under .500 unless you have an epic bullpen.

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54 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The '19 Yanks won 103 games and had just three relievers worth 1.5 or more wins.

Seeing this typed as is, it is hitting me for the first time we will get the '27 Yankees again this decade.  Demographically I guess that puts Torres in the old dog Ruth spot and Dominguez in the young pup Gehrig one.

Not wishing those guys good luck with that as '27 should be about the peak of our eventual Stras/Harper/Rendon-analog group.  Here's to the '27 Orioles giving them a run for their money.  I would say it being Rutschman's walk year is as easy as counting 1-2-3-4-5-6-7, but there's a CBA to be named later between here and there.

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3 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

And Ryan Howard came in 2nd in MVP voting that year.

Even more amusing is the guy who stood next to him on defense had 9 WAR and finished 14th.

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