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Frobby

Comparison of the Orioles Top 30 Lists

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Rank	OH			MLB	Law	FG	BA 	PL	BP	1500
1	Rutschman		1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	G. Rodriguez		2	3	2	2	2	2	2
3	DJ Hall			3	2	3	3	3	4	3
4	Mountcastle		4	7	4	5	4	3	4
5	Hays			5	6	7	4	5		5
6	Diaz			7	4	6	6	9	6	6
7	Baumann			8	13	9	10	7		10
8	Lowther			10	11	12	12	11		8
9	Henderson		6	8	5	7	8		9
10	Harvey			12	12	20	8	13		14
11	Kremer			9	9	11	11	6	8	7
12	Akin			11	15	14	9	10		13
13	Wells			15	14	24	14	19		17
14	Rom			17	18	19	15	17		16
15	Hanifee			21	20	34	23			25
16	Hernaiz			27		22	25	25		27
17	A. Hall			13	5	13	13	12	7	11
18	Stowers			14	19	10	18	14		15
19	McKenna			16	10	8	17	15	5	12
20	Zimmermann		29		18	16	20		41
21	Bannon			18		17	30	23		24
22	Stauffer								47
23	Pop					16		26		28
24	L. Rodriguez						26		42
25	Fenter			30			21	24		33
26	Tate			28			27			29
27	Sedlock			19			20	18		18
28	McLarty									48
29	Cumberland				35				35
30	Welk						
	Bailey			20		21				20
	Bradish			22		23		22		26
	Watson 			23		25	19			23
	Grenier			24	17	15	24	30	10	21
	McCoy			25			29			30
	Knight			26	16	31	22	21		19
	Ortiz					26				38
	Handley 				27			
	Diplan					28				37	
	Rucker					29			
	Carroll					30				50
	Prado							16	
	Peek							27		32
	Carmona							28	
	Sparks							29	
	Urias						28
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6 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Thought about getting OH's list on there too.

Wonder what those lists look like now since we've traded for a bunch of new guys.

So, the OH list is the “master.”    It does not include the Rule 5 guys or the players acquired in the Bundy trade or off waivers. Based on comments made by Tony and Luke, I believe it’s likely that Bailey, Bradish and Peek would have cracked our top 30 on the OH list, which was published before they were acquired.    

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As you can see, there is a pretty high consensus on the Orioles' top 20 or so.   Note that I only have a top 10 for BA and BP and a top 20 for Keith Law.    If anyone has a more complete BA or BP list, let me know.    And if there are other lists I should add, post a link here and I will try to do it.   It took me a while to do this one because of formatting issues when I cut and pasted from Excel.  

It looks like the three guys who some rate much higher than OH are Adam Hall (#5 Law, #7 BP), Ryan McKenna (#5 BP, #8 Fangraphs, #10 Law) and Cadyn Grenier (#10 BP, #15 Fangraphs, #17 Law but unranked by OH).    The guys OH is very high on compared to others are Brenan Hanifee (#15 on OH but unranked by Prospects Live, #34 by Fangraphs and no higher than 20 elsewhere) and Daryl Hernaiz (#16 on OH but ranked no higher than #22 elsewhere).   Once you get into the 22-30 range there is a wide variety of opinion.

 

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I updated the OP to include the entire BA top 30, kindly provided by Enjoy Terror.    Also, I added Prospects1500.  If anyone BP's list beyond the top 10, let me know.

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The weirdest omission is BP's exclusion of Hays. Is it because they don't think he's a top 10 prospect or because they didn't know he was still eligible? 

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4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The weirdest omission is BP's exclusion of Hays. Is it because they don't think he's a top 10 prospect or because they didn't know he was still eligible? 

I kind of think it’s the latter.    Or maybe they know, but choose not to include players with that much major league experience on their lists for whatever reason.   

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14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The weirdest omission is BP's exclusion of Hays. Is it because they don't think he's a top 10 prospect or because they didn't know he was still eligible? 

I found this on a BP chat about their Orioles list:

Hays...well, I didn't know what to do with Hays and said as much in the blurb, but he's never hit above Double-A for any sustained period.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1607

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49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I found this on a BP chat about their Orioles list:

Hays...well, I didn't know what to do with Hays and said as much in the blurb, but he's never hit above Double-A for any sustained period.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1607

That's not a good answer from someone who is supposed to be an "expert" for BP on Orioles prospects. What does that even mean "I didn't know what to do with Hays?"

I don't follow the other national prospect evaluators very closely but I do remember Luke telling me once that BP had been going through a brain drain of talent. Well, everyone is allowed an opinion. I don't ever look at anyone else's lists before putting ours out so it's interesting to see where other's rank guys, but it's not like I go, "Man, we must be wrong" if we differ. :D

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42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's not a good answer from someone who is supposed to be an "expert" for BP on Orioles prospects. What does that even mean "I didn't know what to do with Hays?"

I don't follow the other national prospect evaluators very closely but I do remember Luke telling me once that BP had been going through a brain drain of talent. Well, everyone is allowed an opinion. I don't ever look at anyone else's lists before putting ours out so it's interesting to see where other's rank guys, but it's not like I go, "Man, we must be wrong" if we differ. :D

I think there is more agreement on the top 20 or so than I can ever remember.    Once below 20, OH seemed to do a careful analysis of performance and tools, whereas some of the other lists seemed to give a lot of weight to draft pedigree.    It will be interesting to watch those guys in the 20-30 range on the various lists to see who progresses this year.    

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Why is OH apart from everyone else on Cadyn Grenier? Blaine Knight as well.

Those two are on all top 30 lists, but not ours. 

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6 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Why is OH apart from everyone else on Cadyn Grenier? Blaine Knight as well.

Those two are on all top 30 lists, but not ours. 

Same reason that "everyone" was high on Josh Hart. Tools and draft position.

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29 minutes ago, weams said:

Same reason that "everyone" was high on Josh Hart. Tools and draft position.

Players like that get a courtesy bonus year of consideration. They could bounce back like Sedlock and Fenter have. They have the pedigree anyway.

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2 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Why is OH apart from everyone else on Cadyn Grenier? Blaine Knight as well.

Those two are on all top 30 lists, but not ours. 

We felt Grenier has a utility profile at best because of the lack of bat. As for Knight, honestly, we just felt like his command fell off so badly that even when was successful in Delmarva it was more because of impatient batters than quality of location and stuff. Knight almost made our list and he was on mine originally (I think like #28) but I dropped him in favor of a couple guys Luke really liked at the back end of the list.

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I actually trust the OH list more than the others, because I know Oriole fans developed that list. The others either aren't scouted with any kind of depth, not scouted at all, or worse, just a composite of other lists. 

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