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Keith Law ranks our farm system 24th

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https://theathletic.com/1641139/2020/03/02/keith-laws-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams?source=shared-article

Athletic pay wall, obviously.

Says it's still early in the rebuild.  There's some back end pitching depth behind Hall and Rodriguez, and a few position players in the low levels who have upside beyond what they've shown so far. Need to add bulk and get active in the Latin American market.

The 6 teams he rates worse than us are Bos, Oak, Hou, ChC, Wash, Milw.   His comment for Houston starts with "It’s funny, but when you get rid of all of your amateur scouts, your drafts get a whole lot worse. "

 

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Keith Law is out there on an island on this one.    That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, but I certainly wouldn’t take his opinion as the gospel.     

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He might be on an island.  I know we like to overrate our prospects on here but at the same time...I kinda look at it as AR, Hall, Gray-Rod and then....everyone else.  A bunch of guys that could have an impact but can't stay healthy (Diaz), don't have a position (Mountcastle) and guys who we think could be good (Akin) but no one really mentions outside of the OH because John Means came out of nowhere last year and that's always a possibility for every pitcher in the system now.

How's that different from anyone in the top 5?  Not sure.  The thing about this article is that he doesn't really name players.  Even in the Tampa writeup, he doesn't use the name Wander Franco he just says "the game's best prospect."

We can quibble with the 24th ranking, I'm sure there's going to be some whining about how "LAW HATES US OMG" because that's an original battle cry I've never heard on here before.

Quote

It’s still early in the rebuild and the Orioles’ first draft under Mike Elias was fine, but not a blockbuster. There’s some back-end pitching depth here behind the big two starter prospects, DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez, and a few position players in the low levels who have upside beyond what they’ve shown so far. This team needs more total bulk in the system and to get active in Latin America again.

But...he's not wrong.  

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My only issue with his write-up is, who doesn't mention AR is a run down of our farm?  He can say we only have AR, DL and Grayson, and nothing else on the farm, but you don't rank us #24 and then forget to mention what is, most all of baseball a top 6-15 prospect. Almost like he copied and pasted an old write up on our farm. 

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For what it’s worth, I have been tracking Fangraphs’ evaluations of the players in each farm system.     So far they’ve graded the players in 15 of the 30 organizations, including ours.    They list every player they think deserves a 35+ or higher grade, and give their grades.    Right now, there are four teams with more 35+ prospects than we have, and nine with fewer.   In terms of top-end talent, we have four players rated 50 or higher; five teams have more than that, seven have fewer.    So, based on the 15 teams they’ve graded, we clearly appear to be in the top half by their reckoning.   And most other rankings I’ve seen have us between 8-15.    BA has us 9th.  

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11 hours ago, Frobby said:

For what it’s worth, I have been tracking Fangraphs’ evaluations of the players in each farm system.     So far they’ve graded the players in 15 of the 30 organizations, including ours.    They list every player they think deserves a 35+ or higher grade, and give their grades.    Right now, there are four teams with more 35+ prospects than we have, and nine with fewer.   In terms of top-end talent, we have four players rated 50 or higher; five teams have more than that, seven have fewer.    So, based on the 15 teams they’ve graded, we clearly appear to be in the top half by their reckoning.   And most other rankings I’ve seen have us between 8-15.    BA has us 9th.  

Very good take

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Personally, I think ranking farm systems #1-30 is pretty dumb. You can have a top prospect like Adley to bump a team up the rankings, but as soon as he graduates to MLB - is the farm system suddenly worse?

Does it take a genius to draft Adley with the top pick? Is a team's farm system suddenly 10 places better because they took the obvious best player with the overall pick?

I'd rather see rankings that account for the overall depth and health of a team's development pipeline. In that regard, although Elias has made progress, the O's are still a ways off.

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I can’t ultimately disagree with Law taking a hard approach against the O’s farm system.  This is a prove it year to see if development advances and changes are starting to work.  Similarly we cannot mess up the draft this year.
 

I think its up to the O’s to prove him wrong.

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On 3/3/2020 at 6:17 AM, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Personally, I think ranking farm systems #1-30 is pretty dumb. You can have a top prospect like Adley to bump a team up the rankings, but as soon as he graduates to MLB - is the farm system suddenly worse?

Does it take a genius to draft Adley with the top pick? Is a team's farm system suddenly 10 places better because they took the obvious best player with the overall pick?

I'd rather see rankings that account for the overall depth and health of a team's development pipeline. In that regard, although Elias has made progress, the O's are still a ways off.

I like the concept of a 1-30 but I agree, most rankings focus on top prospects, it would be nice if some lists considered depth more and backwards looking successes. However realistically the national writers only “see” a small handful of players in person regularly. I do wonder how deep they really go and on what data to determine their rankings.

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On 3/4/2020 at 9:32 AM, TheOtherRipken said:

I can’t ultimately disagree with Law taking a hard approach against the O’s farm system.  This is a prove it year to see if development advances and changes are starting to work.  Similarly we cannot mess up the draft this year.
 

I think its up to the O’s to prove him wrong.

I also think in the "scouting vs data" debate he leans heavily towards scouting.   Look at how low he rated the Astros' farm system, and the comment he made about it, which I quoted in the original post in this thread.   And the Orioles had a similar purge of old school scouts under Elias, so it's obvious Law is pre-disposed to negative about what is happening here.

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