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interloper

Adley so far: 0-8, 1 walk, 5 Ks

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Of note, as bad as Hobgood was as a pick, The Padres did pick high school center fielder Donavan Tate with the 3rd overall pick, two picks ahead of Hobgood. He never made it out of High-A. So Jordan didn't have the worse pick in the draft. :D

Then the Orioles said “hold my beer” and drafted Josh Hart a few drafts later.

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3 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Then the Orioles said “hold my beer” and drafted Josh Hart a few drafts later.

Hart went 37th, not the same thing at all.

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5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I posed this question around draft time, but what if he's Joey Bart?  Bart is obviously still a very highly regarded prospect, but I think it's safe to say that if Adley's 2020 season mirrors Bart's 2019 then people will be concerned and disappointed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bart--000joe

 

Then he is.

All you can do is pick the best player available given the data you have and try and develop him.

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52 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I posed this question around draft time, but what if he's Joey Bart?  Bart is obviously still a very highly regarded prospect, but I think it's safe to say that if Adley's 2020 season mirrors Bart's 2019 then people will be concerned and disappointed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bart--000joe

 

Fangraphs still has Bart as the #10 prospect and 60 FV (same as AR), and he had a 163 wRC+ in the Eastern League (in very limited time, yes). That's not Rutschman's ideal outcome starting today at #5, but people need to understand that player development isn't always ideal and that's far from a worst case.

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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Literally they could have put names on a dartboard and had better success. Can you imagine if the internet and the Hangout existed back then. I'd love to do one of my expose on what was going on back then. I'm trying to think of contacts who would have been around, even in the media but that's a long time ago now. Hell, I was 13 an thought everything the Orioles did was right. Haha.

Of course in my defense they had been to the Playoffs six times and had three World Series appearances with two wins during that lifetime, so I had something to work with back then! :D

I may put together a longer post on this later, but I've done a little research on the Orioles drafts over the years.  I was under the assumption that prior to about 1980 they had this development system that was just humming along.  Producing talent at a prodigious rate.

But it was kind of feast (a little) and famine (a lot).  From 1965, when the draft started, until 1986, they drafted these seven players:

'67 Grich/Baylor
'68 Bumbry
'73 Flanagan/Murray
'78 Cal/Boddicker

But after that... nothing.  The 8th best player they drafted and signed in those 22 years was Storm Davis. 9th-best was Rich Dauer. 10th best, I don't even know, some reliever or platoon guy who totaled like five wins in his career.

By the way, an average Orioles draft (1965-2013) sees six players make the majors (maybe five after you take out guys who didn't sign), and roughly 21 wins in career value.  '83 is the only year that nobody made the majors.  2nd-lowest was a tie between '74, '81, '82, and '86 with just three.  From '81-86 they only had 12 drafted players appear in the majors at all, and that includes Cecil Fielder and Walt Weiss who didn't sign.  And from '80-86 they got a grand total of 7.7 wins from the draft.

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Then he is.

All you can do is pick the best player available given the data you have and try and develop him.

I loved CJ Abrams but have to admit I wasn't confident he would be better.  I just hope our guys didn't screw this up.  And before anyone says this guy was a consensus one so they didn't screw up, they have far more information than we have.  It's their job to get it right, especially 1:1.  The last 1:1 position player failure was Moniak, before that it was Matt Bush (Beckham was a disappointment).  Most teams get it at least sort of right.  

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3 hours ago, baltfan said:

It's those 5k's in 9PA that keep sticking with me.  The guy has only put the ball in play 3 times.

I wouldn't stress over 9 PAs in the spring training no matter what he did good or bad. It's still 9 PAs. Hopefully he'll get off to a hot start this season and put any concerns behind.

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The good news about Adley, if anyone's actually worried (you shouldn't be) is that we have a proper development plan in place throughout every level of the organization, we have technology, we have experts in their fields here, we have every coach pulling on the same rope. If there's talent in there that isn't coming to the surface right away, I'm confident we can actually get it out of him. 

We're not putting ourselves immediately behind the 8-ball from the jump like we've been for the past 30 years. 

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Then he is.

All you can do is pick the best player available given the data you have and try and develop him.

Rutschman was the consensus #1 overall pick.  The O's took him there.  It's the pick everyone expected them to make.  No matter how the rest of his career goes that was the pick to make.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I may put together a longer post on this later, but I've done a little research on the Orioles drafts over the years.  I was under the assumption that prior to about 1980 they had this development system that was just humming along.  Producing talent at a prodigious rate.

But it was kind of feast (a little) and famine (a lot).  From 1965, when the draft started, until 1986, they drafted these seven players:

'67 Grich/Baylor
'68 Bumbry
'73 Flanagan/Murray
'78 Cal/Boddicker

But after that... nothing.  The 8th best player they drafted and signed in those 22 years was Storm Davis. 9th-best was Rich Dauer. 10th best, I don't even know, some reliever or platoon guy who totaled like five wins in his career.

By the way, an average Orioles draft (1965-2013) sees six players make the majors (maybe five after you take out guys who didn't sign), and roughly 21 wins in career value.  '83 is the only year that nobody made the majors.  2nd-lowest was a tie between '74, '81, '82, and '86 with just three.  From '81-86 they only had 12 drafted players appear in the majors at all, and that includes Cecil Fielder and Walt Weiss who didn't sign.  And from '80-86 they got a grand total of 7.7 wins from the draft.

It does seem like the Orioles were masters of the pre draft free agent signings signing guys like Brooks, Palmer, Powell, Blair, McNally, Davey Johnson, Andy Etchebarren, Tom Phoebus (Key player used in the Dopson trade), Eddie Watt and Curt Blefary (key player used in Cueller trade). All of whom were key players during their resurgence in the late 60s, early 70s.

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11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It does seem like the Orioles were masters of the pre draft free agent signings signing guys like Brooks, Palmer, Powell, Blair, McNally, Davey Johnson, Andy Etchebarren, Tom Phoebus (Key player used in the Dopson trade), Eddie Watt and Curt Blefary (key player used in Cueller trade). All of whom were key players during their resurgence in the late 60s, early 70s.

They also pulled off many great trades that brought in Frank Robinson, Mike Cuellar, Ken Singleton, Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor, Tippy Martinez and others.   Seemed like almost all the guys we acquired got better once they put on a Baltimore uniform.    Especially any pitcher that suddenly had Brooks, Belanger and Blair behind them.  

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They also pulled off many great trades that brought in Frank Robinson, Mike Cuellar, Ken Singleton, Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor, Tippy Martinez and others.   Seemed like almost all the guys we acquired got better once they put on a Baltimore uniform.    Especially any pitcher that suddenly had Brooks, Belanger and Blair behind them.  

What's that like?

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It's too early, but considering he was a 1-1, I expected better to this point. We'll see. I wasn't crazy about the pick and was probably the only one on here that wouldn't have been disappointed if we took Vaughn. After the season, we'll have a better idea on AR. As a 1-1, I expect big things from him out of the gate though.

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11 minutes ago, interloper said:

What's that like?

I took it for granted.   I took a lot of things for granted in those days.    The late ‘80’s were a total shock to my system.     I’d just assumed the Orioles would contend forever and everything would continue to go right for them.     Imagine being an Orioles fan after the 1983 season.    You’ve had a great team for 20+ years, won three World Series and had eight playoff appearances in that time, and you have a 27-year old Eddie Murray and a 23-year old Cal Ripken.     Why in the world would you expect anything other than that the team would continue to be great?    But as Drungo pointed out, the ship was rotting below the water line.   

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