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DocJJ

who should we draft at #30, 39?

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I think everyone agrees at #2 we should pick one of Torkelson/Martin/Lacy/Hancock/Gonzales.   (Personally would favor Lacy if pitcher, Martin if position player).

Who then should we consider at #30 and 39?

 

After watching some video (I obviously haven't seen anyone in person), I like what I've seen of Bryce Jarvis (not sure he makes it to 30, but he could), Jordan Walker, Aaron Sabato if we want power hitting first baseman, and RHP Carson Montgomery.

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In the article, they said he can hit 102 in games, but in starts he's more 93-96. 105 is probably max effort and sacrificing command. Interesting pitcher who probably has a nice bullpen future if he can't start, but then again I've just said everything I know about him. Control and command could be awful, the fastball could be straight...

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On 5/13/2020 at 8:16 PM, DocJJ said:

I think everyone agrees at #2 we should pick one of Torkelson/Martin/Lacy/Hancock/Gonzales.   (Personally would favor Lacy if pitcher, Martin if position player).

Who then should we consider at #30 and 39?

 

After watching some video (I obviously haven't seen anyone in person), I like what I've seen of Bryce Jarvis (not sure he makes it to 30, but he could), Jordan Walker, Aaron Sabato if we want power hitting first baseman, and RHP Carson Montgomery.

I certainly do not agree that we should take one of those 5 players. In particular I'd be very disappointed if we took Gonzalez and even Hancock. Tork, Martin and Lacy, in that order, for me. Regardless, it's very hard to guess who we might target at 30 and 39, but it's a fun exercise still. :)

Guys that could be of interest at 30/39, include a few HS pitchers, like Carson Montgomery, Tanner Witt (also highly-considered as a power bat), and Justin Lange. 


 

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So, the recently posted Mayo/Callis mock mentions big time HS RHP name in Nick Bitsko out of Pennsylvania in the Dodgers (last pick of first round) blurb - thought it has LAD taking some else.  Bitsko, 6'4",  throws in the mid-upper 90s, has quality secondary pitches and is only 17 years old.  Bitsko entered the draft analysis in the past few months because he re-classed to the class of 2020 and is graduating early for his age.  The thought at the time Bitsko entered the draft was that he would be a top 10 pick.  Recent mocks have him in the 17-19 range (Red Sox, DBacks) and there are several big market teams like the Mets, NYY and Dodgers who might take Bitsko and make an offer and see what happens - let him go back into the pool for next year if he doesn't sign.  If Bitsko were available, it would presumably be an incredible loss to the Astros to see such a talent available at draft spot of their forfeited pick.

If Bitsko doesn't go in the first round, the team with the largest draft budget, the Orioles, could be there to draft him with our 30th pick - which would be a veritable steal IMO.  Of course, this FO didn't take a pitcher until round 7 or 8 last year and that was not a HS pitcher.  Not sure if Bitsko would be enough of a talent for our FO to take as I believe our FO has volumes of data that conclude that it is generally best not to take HS pitchers early in the draft or that quality pitchers can be found later and cheaper in a draft.

If Bitsko gets outside the first round, the team that signs a quality first round talent and also ends up with Bitsko is going to have, on paper, an excellent draft.  

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Love to get Bitsko. I didn't name him, but I'd prefer him over the other 3 HS pitchers I mentioned. I suspect he'll be gone before those picks, but would be delighted if we took him as long as that doesn't mean we went under-slot at #2. 

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While Bitsko represents a pitcher who has re-classed into the HS class of 2020, two other high ceiling candidates I will mention here are the injured college pitcher JT Ginn and the injured and suspended college SS Freddy Zamora.

Ginn is a Mississippi State Bulldog and, in March, was considered a top 5-10 prospect in this draft as a draft-eligible sophomore.  There are several teams that draft at the bottom half of the first round who could invest in Ginn and have the patience to let him sit out for a year or more including the Nationals, BoSox and others.  There is little word on Ginn's signability and he may not be interested in the bonuses available by the time our 30/39 picks are made.  Some drafts have Ginn getting out of the first round and available with our pick at 30.  Ginn was chosen by the LAD in 2018 at the end of the first round, but he chose college.  

The second name is Freddy Zamora, middle infielder at Miami.  Zamora was suspended to start the year and then injured.  In mock drafts these days, Zamora is generally out of the first round, but taken in the supplemental first.  A recent cbssports article claimed Zamora was a top 25 talent in the draft.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-first-round-mock-draft

The latest MLB Mock Draft by Jonathan Mayo, released tonight, has both Bitsko and Ginn making it out of the first round.

A recent video discussion between Mayo and Callis discussed Mayo's first mock and the four top HS pitchers, Abel, Crochet, Kelley and Bitsko.  Two did not (or barely pitched this year) and the third had an injury issue.  Abel, Crochet and Kelley seem very likely to be taken in the first round.

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On 5/20/2020 at 10:38 PM, hoosiers said:

While Bitsko represents a pitcher who has re-classed into the HS class of 2020, two other high ceiling candidates I will mention here are the injured college pitcher JT Ginn and the injured and suspended college SS Freddy Zamora.

Ginn is a Mississippi State Bulldog and, in March, was considered a top 5-10 prospect in this draft as a draft-eligible sophomore.  There are several teams that draft at the bottom half of the first round who could invest in Ginn and have the patience to let him sit out for a year or more including the Nationals, BoSox and others.  There is little word on Ginn's signability and he may not be interested in the bonuses available by the time our 30/39 picks are made.  Some drafts have Ginn getting out of the first round and available with our pick at 30.  Ginn was chosen by the LAD in 2018 at the end of the first round, but he chose college.  

The second name is Freddy Zamora, middle infielder at Miami.  Zamora was suspended to start the year and then injured.  In mock drafts these days, Zamora is generally out of the first round, but taken in the supplemental first.  A recent cbssports article claimed Zamora was a top 25 talent in the draft.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-first-round-mock-draft

The latest MLB Mock Draft by Jonathan Mayo, released tonight, has both Bitsko and Ginn making it out of the first round.

A recent video discussion between Mayo and Callis discussed Mayo's first mock and the four top HS pitchers, Abel, Crochet, Kelley and Bitsko.  Two did not (or barely pitched this year) and the third had an injury issue.  Abel, Crochet and Kelley seem very likely to be taken in the first round.

Minor note, but Crochet is a college LHP from Tennessee.  Carson Montgomery, a RHP HS'er from Florida is likely the 4th best HS pitching prospect.  

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Greg, thanks for correction.  I realized the error last night and was going to correct it this morning.

https://pressboxonline.com/2020/05/21/mlb-pipelines-jim-callis-orioles-should-not-get-cute-with-no-2-pick-of-draft/

I am attaching above an excellent summary on the Orioles situation by Jim Callis.  The article is based off a radio interview of Callis that was also an excellent listen.  I used to regularly ask questions via email of Callis when he was at Baseball America and some questions were the subject of his AskBA column.  I may try to reach out to him via twitter or his email to see if he will continue to be generous with replying to his fans.

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Do we think that Crochet could fall due to issues related to his release/mechanics? I've mentioned him before as a faller and I'd jump on him if he does. Crochet looks like someone that an Elias leadership group could very well fix up and turn him into a monster.

If not, I've always loved Bitsko, and if he drops I would seriously consider drafting him regardless of bonus as he has excellent stuff and you will get him 3-5 years younger and can mould him/give him major league caliber training and allows the Orioles to really invest in a future stud arm. I don't really care much for others at 30 however, and would prefer a high school outfielder there and then draft whomever remains from the HS crop at 39, letting other teams make our decision for us.

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Crochet seems highly unlikely to drop out of the first round IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gb-2SgkmK8k&feature=youtu.be

A great video with some Os fans who run the Twitter site, Nate Hit The Foul Pole, who somehow had access to Jim Callis last week for an excellent 40 minute interview.  They did ask one question I would have - regarding the Os not taking a pitcher in the first five rounds last year.  Callis said that was not a trend and that he would be very surprised if the Os did not take one or two pitchers in our six picks this year.   

I have sent in several questions to Callis today and will share if he answers them at MLB Pipeline or if he simply responds to the personal email.

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I would love Bitsko at #30. Carson Montgomery is a very good young pitcher from an outstanding family. My son played with him a few years ago. Have not seen him in person since, but the video is very good. He will learn how to refine that change up and develop nicely. 
 

I also like Casey Martin SS (Arkansas), Jared Jones RHP (Ca. HS), Alex Santos RHP (NY HS), and Dax Fulton LHP (OK HS). 

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So, a hypothetical draft of:

1 (pick #2) Zac Veen OF*

2 (pick #30) Nick Bitsko RHP

3. (pick #39) Dax Fulton LHP

Would you be good with this haul in the first two rounds? You would likely have to save some money at #2 to take the next two, assuming they are there. That would be the only way I do not take Austin Martin or Asa Lacy. You would have to not worry about the competitive cycle beginning in less than five years. Bitsko and Fulton were top 15-20 talents overall, Fulton had the TJ surgery but he is the top HS LHP despite that.
 

Personally, I would do this. What say you?

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https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29246516/meet-2020-mlb-draft-man-mystery-17-year-old-enormous-upside

For anyone who wants more info before drooling over Bitsko ....  Article says Bitsko has elite FB characteristics and is improving secondary stuff.  He could go as high as 8th overall to San Diego.  A Pennsylvania product, Bitsko might not get past the Phillies at 15.  

I personally think Jammer's first three picks suggestion with Veen would be outstanding, but it is looking highly unlikely to me.  Dropping from the second rated talent in Martin to Veen around sixth and scooping up Dax Fulton and Bitsko would be a bit risky with the high school lean, but a mouth-watering amount of talent - however unlikely.

IMO, the issue with the savings with Veen, or as has been mentioned on-line at multiple sources, Heston Kjerstad, could be $2M+.  With that kind of savings, IMO, the question starts to become whether we can spend that savings.  Our second pick, the first in the first supplemental round and 30th overall carries slot at $2.4M.  IMO, it is difficult to think a pre-draft deal with someone at 30 would be for $ in the top 15 picks  or $3.5M.  We have been rumored to be targeting Dax Fulton - rated in the 40s per some services - with that pick.  Fulton has undergone TJ surgery and might well have been drafted in the middle of the first round without the injury.

Our third pick, second in the second round and second on day 2, at 39th overall carries slot at $1.9M.  We could be sitting on Day 2 with over $1M in extra slot $ at our disposal to use on a prospect who simply fell out of the first round, but I expect some bonus requests to come down entering day 2.  It almost becomes a scenario of whether we can spend that $ - perhaps on an overslot signing with our third or fourth round picks, but IMO it is very difficult to game that far ahead and assume a certain prospect or pool of prospects will be there - especially since we don't know if other teams are going to use senior signings in rounds 3, 4 and/or 5 in order to go overslot on one other player after the first round. 

The entire scenario could also blow up if Dax is popped in the first round.  I am sure we would have a back-up plan at 30 and would have an entire night to plan how to spend remaining slot savings, but IMO there is plenty of risk - who knows, perhaps Elias would laugh and say he has little doubt he could spend extra slot $ - and Elias could walk away from this draft with four prospects signed at over $2M each.

I would think it is much safer to just draft Martin, Fulton and the prospect we like best at 39 even if we need a senior sign in the third or fourth round to find more slot $.  Then grab two more prospects at slot in our top 150.

 

 

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