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DocJJ

who should we draft at #30, 39?

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@hoosiers Good response. I agree that it would be very unlikely. We may not see either one make it to pick 30. This hypothetical scenario is the only way I would not take Martin or Lacy at pick #2. We would be fortunate to take Martin and get Fulton at #30, and that is what I hope for. 

We could take Martin, and then a college starter at #30, like a Cade Cavalli or a Bobby Miller, if either is still there. And then hope Fulton is still there at #39. We’d have to go underslot somewhere, maybe the remaining three picks.

 

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Yes, I would expect a quality college SP to fall to us at 30.

My hope is that any pre-draft agreement with Fulton is for slot or less and then we can go another with best on board to start day 2 with 2:2 - our 39th pick.  There would be teams with more $ than us at that point (if Martin signs for slot) because of the teams with second round supplemental picks, but I would be fine with three high quality guys signed for about slot with our first three picks. 

I am fine with slot signings for all six of our picks.  I think I would like that draft.  As I said, if Elias can save some $ along the way to get our third rounder, fourth overall, $1.5M and have a talent worthy of that amount with slot above $800k, it would seems to be one strong draft.  Or sign my early favorite Petey Halpin below slot at 39 and have $ for someone who slips to go above slot with our third rounder. 

Elias has options, lots of gaming, IMO, but let's not get too cute and take too much risk.     

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3 hours ago, olddogger said:

Would be nice if he were still available at # 30

If he is, it would probably be because of money.  We'd need to be sure we can sign him before we select him.

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Jordan Westburg, SS, Miss St. (6'3-191 R/R)... would be another sound selection at either 30 or 39.   This is from MLB Pipeline on Westburg.

Quote

Though neither was a heralded prospect or drafted out of high school in 2017, Mississippi State's Westburg and Justin Foscue have developed into college baseball's best double-play combination. Foscue has been a more consistent hitter but Westburg has a higher ceiling and more defensive value. He tied a College World Series record with seven RBI in one game in 2018 and helped the Bulldogs return to Omaha last season.

Westburg has a compact right-handed swing and possesses the bat speed and strength to provide 20 or more homers on an annual basis. He lacks consistency at the plate because he has a very aggressive, pull-happy approach and sometimes struggles with pitch recognition and managing the strike zone. After he failed to make the U.S. collegiate national team last summer, he settled down nicely in the Cape Cod League and was one of the circuit's more productive hitters.

Westburg has solid speed and arm strength to match, giving him a chance to stick at shortstop at the next level. He's big for the position at 6-foot-3 and if he adds more strength to his frame, he could slow down and necessitate a move to third base. With his power potential, he still could profile offensively at the hot corner.

 

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Jonathan Mayo's mock from yesterday had HS SS Ed Howard not taken in the first round.  I'd love to see him in black and orange. I think I'm at about a dozen players I'm "in" on at 30/39.  I hope we nab at least one. 

My preferred list of potential picks at 30/39, excluding Nick Bitsko, whom I expect to be gone before 30:

HS SS Ed Howard,  HS LHP Dax Fulton,  HS RHP Justin Lange,  HS 3B Jordan Walker,  HS RHP Tanner Witt,  HS RHP Carson Montgomery,  Miss St SS Jordan Westburg,  Miami RHP Chris McMahon,  HS SS Carson Tucker,  HS 1B Blaze Jordan


Edit... added Jordan Walker after forgetting to include him. Serious upside. Likely a 1B down the road. 

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On 6/4/2020 at 8:26 AM, Greg Pappas said:

My preferred list of potential picks at 30/39, excluding Nick Bitsko, whom I expect to be gone before 30:

HS SS Ed Howard,  HS LHP Dax Fulton,  HS RHP Justin Lange,  HS 3B Jordan Walker,  HS RHP Tanner Witt,  HS RHP Carson Montgomery,  Miss St SS Jordan Westburg,  Miami RHP Chris McMahon,  HS SS Carson Tucker,  HS 1B Blaze Jordan

That's a really good list. The mock picks from 10-29 seem all over the place. I think you are right about Bitsko being gone, but Mick Abel (not likely) or Jared Kelley could be there at 30. I would add: Bobby Miller RHP (Louisville-would be a redraft), Slade Cecconi RHP (MIami-another redraft), Nick Loftin SS (Baylor), Cole Henry RHP (LSU), Cole Wilcox RHP (Georgia-Over slot?), Drew Romo C (Tx. HS), Jared Jones RHP/OF (Ca. HS) and Kevin Parada C (Ca. HS). 

Parada is a bit of a sleeper here. He seems to be rising because of the bat in high-level competition and a solid catcher who can stay behind the plate. There is a solid amount of Perfect Game data on him. Romo is supposed to be an excellent defensive catcher who is hit over power right now. And Walker is supposed to be a above average to plus athlete and a 60 runner, so maybe he is a corner OF down the road. 

As to what I think the Orioles may do, I hope they have Dax Fulton pegged at #39. If other teams are showing serious interest from 31-38, then take him at 30. I think his profile and upside is that of a top 5 pick in three years if he goes to college. He may be the only risk they take in the top 3 rounds.

I would love to see Ed Howard there at #30, they may grab him. Tanner Witt and Jared Kelley may turn their heads as well, but that might be too much risk if they plan on Fulton at #39. I think they go college otherwise. Cole Wilcox is my top pick of the more likely possibilities at pitcher, but he may be over slot as well. I like Westberg a lot, but Loftin is real solid across the board and was driving the ball more this Spring. Maybe they can save a little of the slot for these two at #30? Or maybe they stay around slot. There is not much out there about Fulton's bonus demands, but an assumption about over slot based on where he would be if he were healthy. 

This is one of the more fun drafts in recent years for me. Do the Orioles stay with more of a college approach? Or is Sig's data base and modeling advanced enough now to be bolder with HS talents with less recent looks? 

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Any chance JT Ginn falls to 30 with the Tommy John surgery scaring people away?   He has top of the 1st round level stuff when healthy....

 

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Any consideration for Aaron Sabato at 30, 39?   He's limited to first base, but the bat is real.

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It will be interesting to see if the Os take one of Dax Fulton or Jordan Walker if both are there at 30.  I don't know if either would be an overslot signing, but either one would be a tremendous addition to our farm system.

I would probably hope to take one of the college SPs who slipped at 39.

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3 hours ago, DocJJ said:

Any consideration for Aaron Sabato at 30, 39?   He's limited to first base, but the bat is real.

Personally I doubt it, as Elias likes athletic types and Sabato is limited athletically and profiles as a 1B/DH.  It's why I don't think he'll be in on Blaze Jordan and a number of other non-athletic types.  I could be wrong... wouldn't be the first or last time. :P

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So, the latest dueling mocks from Mayo/Callis is below:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-final-projections-for-2020-mlb-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Summarizing about the players discussed for the Os at 30/39:

Bitsko - Callis has him gone at 21 to the Cardinals, Mayo has Bitsko getting out of the first round

Jarvis - Duke Pitcher - gone in first round

Cecconi - Miami pitcher - both have SladeC going to the LAD at the end of the first round

Bobby Miller - Louisville Pitcher - Callis has him gone at 22 to the Nats, Mayo has him getting out of the first round

Foscue - LSU 2B - gone in first round

Wilcox - RHP Georgia - gone in first round

Howard - top HS SS - gone in first round

Kelley - one of top HS RHP - gone in first round

Lofton - SS Baylor - gone in first round

Dingler - Ohio State C - gone in first round

What I really like about these projections is the middle infielders being taken in the bottom half of the first round really opening up the pitchers for us.  The player I like best at 30 - Jordan Walker is expected to make it out of the first round.  Based on the above, there is a reasonable chance Bitsko and Miller make it out of the first round.  Top HS pitchers Dax Fulton (injured lefty) and Tanner Witt are both expected to make it out of the first round as are college arms Clayton Beeter, Carmen Mlodzinski and CJ Van Eyk.  LSU SS Westburg is also expect to make it out of the first round.  It seems quite possible that one of the above names will also be available at 39.

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