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5 minutes ago, weams said:

Recent tests show about 4% carrying antibodies. That's a long way off and a couple of million deaths away. 

Yep.

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I'm not as reluctant to do things now, but seeing so many people suddenly so cavalier about distance is a bit alarming.  I don't think there are going to be any games this year.  The hold harmless clause is not going to be accepted.  That's the deal breaker for players given they won't be getting the pay they desire any way this thing is sliced.  The players not having the ability to sue if they get sick and the owners balking at anything short of 1/2 pay is an impasse the HHC creates and allows both sides to just walk away from even talking about it.  As long as it is on the table, the situation is stuck in the mud.

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22 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s a fact, proven out by an increase in the percentage of tests coming back positive in Florida.   In other words, you are correct that one reason cases are increasing is because testing is increasing.   But the percentage of positive tests is also going up, so that’s another factor.    If you’ve been watching the Florida numbers this week, they are increasing pretty dramatically on a daily basis.

Saw some stats on this today.   In Florida, testing is up 39% but cases are up 88%.   In Oklahoma, testing is up 45% but cases are up 94%.     On the other hand, in Texas testing is up 77% and cases are up the same amount.    

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5 hours ago, atomic said:

I would think NY is an example of how not to handle a pandemic. I doubt any other state will catch them on mortality rate.  

It was handled poorly at the outset and so NY became the epicenter. Its citizenry did a generally good job of following guidelines re: social distancing and masks--I know because I live in NYC--and so the daily number of cases and mortalities has plummeted. My point was in regard to the debate, occuring at both the national and OH levels haha, over whether the upsurge of cases in places like Florida is mainly due to the increase in detection from testing. New York is a possible counterexample to the argument that detection, not contagion, is surging because, although testing has increased, the number of cases has fallen off at a remarkable pace.

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2 minutes ago, atomic said:

NY ran out of people to infect in NY.  They have the worst mortality rate of any place in the world along with New Jersey.  I don't think we should uses NY other than what not to do. 

NYC and New Jersey within the NYC Metro are obviously very different than anywhere else in the country. It by far has the highest population density in the country. Their population overwhelming relies on public transit. I think all things considered, they did pretty good.

To take this back to baseball - I think this shines a light on the concern of COVID and sports teams. Clubhouses are dense places and the virus could easily rip through a team, just like any other disease. By restarting MLB, I don't think anyone can reasonably expect that players or personnel aren't going to test positive at some point - but there needs to be a plan in place to prevent it from taking down everyone once it appears.

 

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19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Saw some stats on this today.   In Florida, testing is up 39% but cases are up 88%.   In Oklahoma, testing is up 45% but cases are up 94%.     On the other hand, in Texas testing is up 77% and cases are up the same amount.    

Florida is re-spiking. Some bars and restaurants have had to close again.

I hope the below is wrong about being the next large epicenter

Quote

A period that began with Florida’s daily record of new cases below 1,700 saw eight consecutive days above that figure, five of them topping 2,000 and both Thursday and Friday seeing the highest numbers of all: 3,207 and 3,822 cases, respectively, eclipsing the previous recorded high by more than 35%.

The staggering figures have caused experts at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and University of Pennsylvania to conclude that Florida has “all the markings of the next large epicenter of coronavirus transmission”

 

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4 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

NYC and New Jersey within the NYC Metro are obviously very different than anywhere else in the country. It by far has the highest population density in the country. Their population overwhelming relies on public transit. I think all things considered, they did pretty good.

To take this back to baseball - I think this shines a light on the concern of COVID and sports teams. Clubhouses are dense places and the virus could easily rip through a team, just like any other disease. By restarting MLB, I don't think anyone can reasonably expect that players or personnel aren't going to test positive at some point - but there needs to be a plan in place to prevent it from taking down everyone once it appears.

 

I don't think they could have done any  worse if they didn't react at all it probably would have probably had less deaths.  NY had more cases and deaths today than Texas even though they ave 10 million less people.   

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On 6/20/2020 at 5:18 PM, atomic said:

Yeah I think it is just hitting Florida hard now. 

33,000 cases in the last 7 days, of a total 132,000 cases to date.     That’s quite a leap, even if you factor in the significant uptick in testing.   I think the real issue is whether the death rate will spike in 2-3 weeks there.   I’m guessing there will be a significant increase, but not nearly as drastic as the increase in cases, because a lot of the newer confirmed cases are among younger people who are less likely to suffer serious consequences.   But we’ll see.  

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On 6/22/2020 at 2:16 PM, atomic said:

I don't think they could have done any  worse if they didn't react at all it probably would have probably had less deaths.  NY had more cases and deaths today than Texas even though they ave 10 million less people.   

I think NY got caught with their pants down because early on it wasn’t widely known that the virus could be passed by people who were asymptomatic, and testing wasn’t available.   Everyone else has the advantage of having seen what happened in NY and learning from it.    It astounds me that anyone would ignore the lessons learned from that.   It was horrible to see what was happening there.    

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In one of the baseball threads there was discussion of the declining death rate (in the context of Florida)

Florida’s mortality rate has declined from a high of 4.4% on 6/4 to under 2% today.  However the number of cases has doubled i. The past two weeks.  On 6/22, there were 97,291 cases.  Today, there are 200,111.  Death rate has gone down, but deaths have gone up.  570 deaths over the past two weeks compared to 461 the previous two weeks.  
 

In fact, 22 of the 50 states had more deaths from June 22-July 6 than June 8-June 22.

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15 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

In one of the baseball threads there was discussion of the declining death rate (in the context of Florida)

Florida’s mortality rate has declined from a high of 4.4% on 6/4 to under 2% today.  However the number of cases has doubled i. The past two weeks.  On 6/22, there were 97,291 cases.  Today, there are 200,111.  Death rate has gone down, but deaths have gone up.  570 deaths over the past two weeks compared to 461 the previous two weeks.  
 

In fact, 22 of the 50 states had more deaths from June 22-July 6 than June 8-June 22.

At the end of March, I created a weekly spreadsheet of new cases and deaths for the world, US, NY, Maryland and DC.    I added Texas, Florida and Arizona last week, though I haven’t gone back retroactively for them.   

Nationally and locally, deaths are at a low point right now, even as new cases are at a high point nationally.   4,144 deaths in the US last week, 75 in Maryland, 9 in DC.   That compares to highs of 18,574 in the US, 449 in Maryland, 82 in DC, all during the second half of April.   But Maryland and DC both had an uptick in new cases last week, for the first time since late May, so we’ll see how things go from here locally.    Nationally I think it’s almost certain that the weekly death totals are going to increase in July, but it’s a matter of by how much.   
 

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Yes, Maryland and DC have been going down, but VA has gone up these past two weeks compared to the previous two weeks.  Though Fairfax seems to be doing relatively well. After going down a bit, NY’s deaths increased these past two weeks as well.

There were almost as many cases reported in FL this weekend as total cases in Japan, South Korea, and Australia combined since this thing started.

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4 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Yes, Maryland and DC have been going down, but VA has gone up these past two weeks compared to the previous two weeks.  Though Fairfax seems to be doing relatively well. After going down a bit, NY’s deaths increased these past two weeks as well.

There were almost as many cases reported in FL this weekend as total cases in Japan, South Korea, and Australia combined since this thing started.

 

New York forced nursing homes to take in a total of 6500 COVID infected patients.  I am assuming New Jersey did the same as these two places had the highest death rates by far of anywhere in the world.  There is no way any other state will match their numbers.  

The number in Asia and Australia/New Zealand are lower than Europe/America's because the virus mutated into a form that was more easily spread.  And that is the virus active in North/South America and Europe.  In Europe if you look at the real numbers it seems that most places (Except Germany) the rate of death settled on around 800 deaths per million.  That is probably what we will end up with in the US.  

What got me as I spent last summer visiting Belgium and the Netherlands and was surprised their death rates were so different as countries urbanization is so similar.  And people in Belgium seem much better at following rules than in the Netherlands from my experience.   But then I looked at the unexplained excess deaths in Europe and Belgium did not have any but if you look at France, Italy,, Spain and the Netherlands they are really vastly under reporting deaths there.  And if you add those back in they are all at 800 deaths per million.  Now they are no where the ridiculous numbers in New York and New Jersey .  But I am guessing even with those states horrible response we will end up at 800 deaths per million once you add in the excess deaths. 

Maryland had excess deaths not reported to be by covid as well.  We report right now 537 per million but the real number is probably around 700.   

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On 6/1/2020 at 8:05 PM, Frobby said:

It takes 2-3 weeks to know what impact any particular action had.   

Maryland really hasn’t had much of a drop from its peak.    Disappointing.   
 

 

I think its pretty clear based on the numbers coming out of the states that reopened their states and made the mask optional, that was the wrong decision as those states are respiking.

Maryland numbers are looking good in comparison, all heading down.

 

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