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MLB Pipeline: Austin Martin

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Are we reading too much into early season throwing issues? I don’t know, but it is certainly possible. Many players have a bit of soreness early in the season. And I never saw any issues with his throws in previous years from 3B. I prefer him at 2B, or CF, but I would not count him out as a 3B. 
 

In regards to the speed not being “elite,” and the thought that he would be just an average defender in CF, many great CF’s were not 70-80 runners. Adam Jones was never that, for instance. From all of the information I have seen, his instincts are excellent. If he is chosen at 1.2, the Orioles will find a place for him to develop. Austin can hit. And he hits top pitching in big moments. I think you find a place for that guy.
 

Paul Molitor and Craig Biggio were 2B who were probably solid, but maybe not elite defenders, but the hit tool was elite. Would you draft that profile at 1.2? 

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20 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Lol - Baseball America's top prospect in the draft ..... not good enough for half of the OH at 1:2.  Some of you folks are too much.

 

I wish we had the 2020 season to judge them on.     The margin of error is significantly higher this year.    I’m not going to give five minutes of thought to who the O’s should pick.    I have no idea.   I’ll just tune in on June 10 and find out who they chose.    

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29 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Are we reading too much into early season throwing issues? I don’t know, but it is certainly possible. Many players have a bit of soreness early in the season. And I never saw any issues with his throws in previous years from 3B. I prefer him at 2B, or CF, but I would not count him out as a 3B. 
 

In regards to the speed not being “elite,” and the thought that he would be just an average defender in CF, many great CF’s were not 70-80 runners. Adam Jones was never that, for instance. From all of the information I have seen, his instincts are excellent. If he is chosen at 1.2, the Orioles will find a place for him to develop. Austin can hit. And he hits top pitching in big moments. I think you find a place for that guy.
 

Paul Molitor and Craig Biggio were 2B who were probably solid, but maybe not elite defenders, but the hit tool was elite. Would you draft that profile at 1.2? 

Molitor was drafted as a SS.  He only spent on season in the minors and moved 2B his first year with the Brewers because they had Robin Yount at SS.   Molitor was a speedster and had the nickname the Ignitor.    He stole 30 bases his first year in the majors and 40 bases 4 times in his career.   He is not a good comp for Martin IMO.

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Not going to apologize for being a draftnik.  Yes, it would be a big help to have the benefit of the 2020 season to help with the analytics and scouting of players.  It is really the high schoolers who are more negatively impacted than the college guys.  The younger high schoolers are going to be drafted based on performances when they were 16.

This is a particularly important draft for the Orioles because we are drafting second in each round and have the first pick in the supplemental first round giving us the draft's largest bonus pool and the best opportunity to walk away with the most talent.

The lack of up-to-date performances thrown an enormous wrench into this draft and offer the Os, and every other team, the possibility to make major mistakes regarding outcome in this particular draft. 

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36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Molitor was drafted as a SS.  He only spent on season in the minors and moved 2B his first year with the Brewers because they had Robin Yount at SS.   Molitor was a speedster and had the nickname the Ignitor.    He stole 30 bases his first year in the majors and 40 bases 4 times in his career.   He is not a good comp for Martin IMO.

I am well aware of Paul Molitor’s speed, and his stats. He had great instincts as well. There is not an exact comp for Austin, or any player. It was a much different era in the game, obviously. I was referring to his hitting exploits and general defensive abilities through his major league career in comparison to what I imagine Austin will end up. Anyone can poke holes in any comp, which is why I generally hesitate to put them out there. I think it was useful in this conversation to frame what kind of player Austin may become. They are similar in my opinion. 

Martin has above average speed, maybe 55-60. Molitor was more of a 70 runner as a HS prospect and young MLB player. But I still think Martin could steal more bases than you think. Brian Roberts, for instance, stole a lot of bases with just above average speed. And in the longer term, speed is the least sustainable of the five tools. 

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19 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I am well aware of Paul Molitor’s speed, and his stats. He had great instincts as well. There is not an exact comp for Austin, or any player. It was a much different era in the game, obviously. I was referring to his hitting exploits and general defensive abilities through his major league career in comparison to what I imagine Austin will end up. Anyone can poke holes in any comp, which is why I generally hesitate to put them out there. I think it was useful in this conversation to frame what kind of player Austin may become. They are similar in my opinion. 

Martin has above average speed, maybe 55-60. Molitor was more of a 70 runner as a HS prospect and young MLB player. But I still think Martin could steal more bases than you think. Brian Roberts, for instance, stole a lot of bases with just above average speed. And in the longer term, speed is the least sustainable of the five tools. 

He's more of a solid than a plus runner ...... Jim Callis

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He's more of a solid than a plus runner ...... Jim Callis

That would put him above average, no? Between solid (aka average/50) and plus (60)...which is more or less what I said. He is generally considered above average by everything I have read. Jim Callis also has him going to the Baltimore Orioles in his mocks. He also has had Austin going #1 in the past mocks. So, obviously, Jim Callis likes him. So does every other outlet.

Richie Martin is an 80 runner...and...not a factor. Honestly, stolen bases are not a concern of mine in evaluating him. Austin hits, and he does it in big moments. He’s a winning player. 

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4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That would put him above average, no? Between solid (aka average/50) and plus (60)...which is more or less what I said. He is generally considered above average by everything I have read. Jim Callis also has him going to the Baltimore Orioles in his mocks. He also has had Austin going #1 in the past mocks. So, obviously, Jim Callis likes him. So does every other outlet.

Richie Martin is an 80 runner...and...not a factor. Honestly, stolen bases are not a concern of mine in evaluating him. Austin hits, and he does it in big moments. He’s a winning player. 

I agree several outlets have martin going #2.    I guess I am in the minority thinking Lacy or Hancock are better picks for the O's.

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree several outlets have martin going #2.    I guess I am in the minority thinking Lacy or Hancock are better picks for the O's.

Its all good, sir. Eye of the beholder and all. You may end up being correct. Not an exact science. I enjoy tossing ideas back and forth. There is not really any consensus about the first five picks. No clear cut leaders. Maybe Detroit takes Martin, then what? I prefer Lacy, really like his upside, over Hancock. Not really convinced that Torkelson is the guy if he's available. And I'm sure some here will say I'm nuts. 

I just happened across this from BA. "Martin is more of a plus runner than a true burner..."  https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects/

 

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https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-prospect-austin-martin?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

A new piece on Martin and what drives him.

 

An excerpt: 

Quote

...if Martin, ranked No. 2 on MLB Pipeline's Top 200 Draft Prospects list, is to become the next Commodore to soar, it won’t just be because of his elite contact rates, his power or his speed. It will also be because of the kind of unquantifiable edge that drives the elite competitors.

“I just love to win,” Martin says. “Well, honestly, I hate losing even more than I love to win.”

Vandy did a lot of winning in 2019, with the sophomore Martin batting leadoff and shifting from second base to third. He led the SEC in average (.392), on-base percentage (.486) and runs (87), as the Commodores rolled to the College World Series title. Martin was the only underclassman to be named an All-American, and Corbin considers him one of the best and most instinctive baserunners he’s ever coached.

 

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree several outlets have martin going #2.    I guess I am in the minority thinking Lacy or Hancock are better picks for the O's.

I;m not a big fan of spending a top draft choice on hitting.  We already did that for years with Bundy and Gausman, and we did it again with Hall and Rodriguez and have some other pretty good pitching prospects below them.  Frankly, the potential for arm injuries just freaks me out too much with these guys. 

I would rather grow the bats and buy the arms when the team is ready to compete.  When the bats are on their rookie contracts, a contract for a #1 starter would be perfect.  Just like the Cubs did when they signed Lester in 2015.  

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On 5/24/2020 at 12:08 AM, ThomasTomasz said:

I;m not a big fan of spending a top draft choice on hitting.  We already did that for years with Bundy and Gausman, and we did it again with Hall and Rodriguez and have some other pretty good pitching prospects below them.  Frankly, the potential for arm injuries just freaks me out too much with these guys. 

I would rather grow the bats and buy the arms when the team is ready to compete.  When the bats are on their rookie contracts, a contract for a #1 starter would be perfect.  Just like the Cubs did when they signed Lester in 2015.  

Grow the arms, buy the bats. IMO

Arms are too expensive to buy off the FA market

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10 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Grow the arms, buy the bats. IMO

Arms are too expensive to buy off the FA market

Buy a Bregman. Buy a  Cody Bellinger,  Buy a a Christian Yelich. Buy a Keston Hiura.

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