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MLB Pipeline: Austin Martin

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One of the interesting things about the Martin debate is that during the DD era, a lot os felt like the O’s players’ struck out too much and lacked plate discipline. Martin’s stats have been posted a number of times, but he seems to be what a lot of posters have wanted for years—a player with excellent plate discipline and good athleticism. Last year he had a .486 OBP with 40 walks and only 34 strikeouts. 
 

Kiley McDaniel writes:

Martin's calling card is his plus-plus contact skills and plate discipline, which help him get to all of his solid average raw power in games, for 15-20 homers most years.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29251325/updated-2020-mlb-draft-rankings-latest-top-150-players

Eric Longerhagen writes:

He already had two traits that together make for a strong profile in that Martin is likely to play a premium position (though where exactly is up for debate, his arm was not great early in 2020 and he moved from 3B to CF) and has a plus-plus feel for the strike zone. He had more walks than strikeouts as a sophomore and started hitting for power late in that season, something his combination of selectivity and gorgeous, natural swing loft give him an excellent chance of doing in pro ball despite middling raw juice. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0

Keith Law also called Martin a plus runner with electric hands. 

I’m certainly not saying he’s a sure thing and I’ve previously written that I won’t melt down if Gonzales is drafted, but it seems to me that this is the type of player a lot of people (myself included) have wanted on the O’s and I almost feel like the O’s would be overthinking it to go in a different direction (assuming Tork is drafted by Detroit, though I prefer Martin over Tork and will probably look incredibly stupid for saying that).

 

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6 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

One of the interesting things about the Martin debate is that during the DD era, a lot os felt like the O’s players’ struck out too much and lacked plate discipline. Martin’s stats have been posted a number of times, but he seems to be what a lot of posters have wanted for years—a player with excellent plate discipline and good athleticism. Last year he had a .486 OBP with 40 walks and only 34 strikeouts. 
 

 

 

Fun fact:

DJ Stewart had more walks (147) than strikeouts (117) in his college career.

His Junior year he had a .500 OBP.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I know, I've seen that.  And that's a very positive thing in his favor.  But... it's also 42 games.  If a 42 game sample is representative it's a coincidence.

I disagree.  It certainly seems representative when coupled with his other-worldly numbers he posted at NMSU.  It is a very strong rebuttal to the claim that his collage numbers should be discounted based solely on geography.

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fun fact:

DJ Stewart had more walks (147) than strikeouts (117) in his college career.

His Junior year he had a .500 OBP.

His career line in college was .344/.481/.570.  And it wasn't even at New Mexico State, it was at sea level.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

His career line in college was .344/.481/.570.  And it wasn't even at New Mexico State, it was at sea level.

Maybe a couple feet under.  😉

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6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I know, I've seen that.  And that's a very positive thing in his favor.  But... it's also 42 games.  If a 42 game sample is representative it's a coincidence.

True.

Curious to see the success rate of Cape Cod stars/MVPs and how they correlate to pro ball.

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Just now, Number5 said:

I disagree.  It certainly seems representative when coupled with his other-worldly numbers he posted at NMSU.  It is a very strong rebuttal to the claim that his collage numbers should be discounted based solely on geography.

His numbers should be discounted because of an alien offensive context.  That doesn't mean his scouting reports aren't legit.  But 42 games is 42 games.  David Newhan once hit .400 over 42 games.  Hurricane Hazle once had a MLB 1.126 OPS in 41 games.  Gonzales' 42 games should be treated like anyone else's 42 games.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

His numbers should be discounted because of an alien offensive context.  That doesn't mean his scouting reports aren't legit.  But 42 games is 42 games.  David Newhan once hit .400 over 42 games.  Hurricane Hazle once had a MLB 1.126 OPS in 41 games.  Gonzales' 42 games should be treated like anyone else's 42 games.

If you're @wildcard42 games is equivalent to, like, 5 years of stats.  

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19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

His numbers should be discounted because of an alien offensive context.  That doesn't mean his scouting reports aren't legit.  But 42 games is 42 games.  David Newhan once hit .400 over 42 games.  Hurricane Hazle once had a MLB 1.126 OPS in 41 games.  Gonzales' 42 games should be treated like anyone else's 42 games.

So, if I understand you correctly, there is absolutely nothing that this player could possibly have done to make you think he's a worthy choice here.  He has performed at a tremendous level wherever he's been for several years, but it must be all smoke and mirrors, coupled with pure luck over a particular small sample size.  Sorry, but you haven't shown me any reason whatsoever to agree with you that he isn't the player he seems to be.  You asserted that his home park in college was the sole reason for his numbers, yet his performance away from that environment shouldn't be considered either, because the Cape Cod League's season doesn't last 749 games.  You are certainly welcome to your feeling that something tells you that Gonzales isn't for real, but your feeling alone doesn't convince me to agree with you.

I am trusting Elias here.  I'd be happy with any of Tork, Martin, Lacy, or Gonzales.  I don't see any valid reason to eliminate Gonzales from that discussion.  It comes down to what the Orioles' baseball people think, which is OK by me.

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2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

So, if I understand you correctly, there is absolutely nothing that this player could possibly have done to make you think he's a worthy choice here.  He has performed at a tremendous level wherever he's been for several years, but it must be all smoke and mirrors, coupled with pure luck over a particular small sample size.  Sorry, but you haven't shown me any reason whatsoever to agree with you that he isn't the player he seems to be.  You asserted that his home park in college was the sole reason for his numbers, yet his performance away from that environment shouldn't be considered either, because the Cape Cod League's season doesn't last 749 games.  You are certainly welcome to your feeling that something tells you that Gonzales isn't for real, but your feeling alone doesn't convince me to agree with you.

I am trusting Elias here.  I'd be happy with any of Tork, Martin, Lacy, or Gonzales.  I don't see any valid reason to eliminate Gonzales from that discussion.  It comes down to what the Orioles' baseball people think, which is OK by me.

I haven't followed this thread but what happened to Emerson Hancock?

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29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fun fact:

DJ Stewart had more walks (147) than strikeouts (117) in his college career.

His Junior year he had a .500 OBP.

While true, no scouts are saying that Martin’s swing will need to be rebuilt because of an extreme crouch, that he lacks the athleticism to play a premium position, or that he would be a reach at the number 2 pick. Martin could bust. However if people read this and think that Stewart’s plate discipline hasn’t transferred (and I’m not sure he’s ever been given a fair chance), so Martin will end up a AAAA player (I’m not saying that you are saying this, only that it could be interpreted that way), there are plenty of reasons why Stewart’s lack of major league success is not predictive of whether Martin will succeed.

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4 minutes ago, Orioles1954 said:

I haven't followed this thread but what happened to Emerson Hancock?

From what I read the main thing is his K rate wasn't what folks were hoping for early in the season.  It started to improve the last couple of starts but the damage had been dealt.

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3 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

While true, no scouts are saying that Martin’s swing will need to be rebuilt because of an extreme crouch, that he lacks the athleticism to play a premium position, or that he would be a reach at the number 2 pick. Martin could bust. However if people read this and think that Stewart’s plate discipline hasn’t transferred (and I’m not sure he’s ever been given a fair chance), so Martin will end up a AAAA player (I’m not saying that you are saying this, only that it could be interpreted that way), there are plenty of reasons why Stewart’s lack of major league success is not predictive of whether Martin will succeed.

I was pointing out that Dan did make an attempt to bring in a high OBP guy that had some statistical similarities to Martin.

I was also making the point that college stats are not necessarily that meaningful.

I don't expect any college players K rate to transfer to the majors for instance.

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