The situation would be completely different due to the shifts employed, which is what enabled the runner to be halfway down the line in the first place. I guarantee that if the Phils nonsensically shifted like that against either of those two, with that amount of speed at third, AND two outs, I'm sure the O's would try the same thing.
Much like you on the previous page, I was trying to be cautious in my wording
Didn't want to get hung up on that part of it - ultimately the team stealing home there, particularly with two outs - is not a shot across the bow at Davis. Even with a great hitter at the plate, if you think you have something like a 50-50 shot there, you take it all day every day
Depending on the advnced metric, it definitely should/will be. That's a play with a high probability of being a single (probably close to 99% chance based on location and exit velo). Had the speedy CF made it there, it would be a five-star (or whatever the term is) play. A single would have been to expectation, anything additional, in this case it being played to a HR, should penalize the fielder. Probably something close to ~.8-.9 runs.