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Greg Pappas

Poll: Who would YOU take if you could select any prospect at pick #2?

Who do you want the O's to draft, if all prospects were available?  

35 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you want the O's to draft, if all prospects were available?

    • 1B-Spencer Torkelson
    • Inf-OF Austin Martin
    • LHP-Asa Lacy
    • RHP-Emerson Hancock
    • OF-Zac Veen
    • 2B-Nick Gonzalez
    • Someone else.
      0


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So there are articles here which include the recent comments from Mayo that Martin could play CF like Adam Jones - using speed over instincts to become an above average CFer and you have written your belief that Martin is a backup CFer. 

I would say out loud, "Jeez, you can't make this stuff up", but we have a poster right here who is making this stuff up.

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8 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Tork has a 70% chance of being a force in the middle of the lineup so if he is available I would take him.    

I think Lacy, Hancock and Martin all are in the 50% range of being productive major leaugers.  I think the O's have to know who they are and what is most important for them.   Starting pitching is the key to them being a playoff team again and its hard for them to acquire.  Therefore if Tork is gone I would take Lacy #2,   Its hard of find a young lefty with his size and stuff.  Add him to Rodriguez, Hall and Means would raise the odds that the O's could put together a solid rotation for the future.

Martin has a 50% chance to be a 350 OBP leadoff hitter, 2B that produces 15-20 homers and steals per season IMO.  I don't think he is a 850 OPS guy as mainly a singles and doubles hit on a normal basis.  He may do that one or two times in his career.   Vandy has him listed at 170 lbs.  He looks like that is right.  He can add 15 lbs in the next few seasons and still be pretty thin.  He is not built for power.   His arm is average.  He may have Hays speed but he does not have Hays arm so he probably is not going to move Hays out of CF.   He is a good backup CF.  Henderson has a better arm for  3B.  The arm also makes Martin a good backup 3B.   His best position is probably 2B which is normally not a #2 pick.

While I would take Lacy I think Elias will take Martin.   Mainly because of the success he had in picking Correa and Bregman and failure he had in taking Appel and Aikens with high draft picks.

I completely understand your desire to draft an outstanding college starter, like Lacy. It would not be a 'bad' pick, certainly, as Lacy is well-regarded as the top starter in the draft and we absolutely need great pitching prospects added to the current group we have. So again, I get that. It's also true that Martin's defensive home is questionable. I personally think we'll try him at SS and then he'll likely convert to 2B.  But to say that Martin projects to a .350 OBP, is woefully selling him short.  The top hitter in this draft and among the best hitters scouted in recent memory, projects to a .400 OBP.  He is considered an elite bat with a great approach at the plate.

Martin's career at Vandy, playing in the country's toughest conference-- 
PA 665,    AB 543,   R 146,    H 200,    2B 39,   3B  4,    HR 14,    RBI 76,    SB 43,    CS 14,   BB 85,    K's 82,   BA .368,    OBP .474,    SLG 532,   OPS 1.007

austinstats.gif

 

One other important aspect of pitcher acquisition, is trading for it.  Free agency, as you say, may not be the route we are able to take the most advantage of, at least historically.  However, dealing from a plethora of hitting talent can net you equally impressive arms. Every team has weaknesses in their system and/or at the big league level.  Time and time again, year after year, teams deal minor league pitching prospects to fill holes... usually at the big league level.  So, while I agree that drafting our own pitching would be great, drafting hitting is simply adding quality depth to a system much in need of such an influx.  Build a great system, the pitching will come.

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5 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I completely understand your desire to draft an outstanding college starter, like Lacy. It would not be a 'bad' pick, certainly, as Lacy is well-regarded as the top starter in the draft and we absolutely need great pitching prospects added to the current group we have. So again, I get that. It's also true that Martin's defensive home is questionable. I personally think we'll try him at SS and then he'll likely convert to 2B.  But to say that Martin projects to a .350 OBP, is woefully selling him short.  The top hitter in this draft and among the best hitters scouted in recent memory, projects to a .400 OBP.  He is considered an elite bat with a great approach at the plate.

Martin's career at Vandy, playing in the country's toughest conference-- 
PA 665,    AB 543,   R 146,    H 200,    2B 39,   3B  4,    HR 14,    RBI 76,    SB 43,    CS 14,   BB 85,    K's 82,   BA .368,    OBP .474,    SLG 532,   OPS 1.007

austinstats.gif

 

One other important aspect of pitcher acquisition, is trading for it.  Free agency, as you say, may not be the route we are able to take the most advantage of, at least historically.  However, dealing from a plethora of hitting talent can net you equally impressive arms. Every team has weaknesses in their system and/or at the big league level.  Time and time again, year after year, teams deal minor league pitching prospects to fill holes... usually at the big league level.  So, while I agree that drafting our own pitching would be great, drafting hitting is simply adding quality depth to a system much in need of such an influx.  Build a great system, the pitching will come.

As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB.  Mike Trout and Joey Votto.    Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB.   That is a total of three.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders

So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them.   Odds are against it. 

College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all.   Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB.  Mike Trout and Joey Votto.    Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB.   That is a total of three.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders

So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them.   Odds are against it. 

College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all.   Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.

Well when people say his comp is Mookie freaking Betts, I think people are getting carried away with upside projections. I hope I look back at this post in 6 years and Martin has an MVP and multiple top 5 finishes. 

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I'm over the moon if Tork is available at 2. I get the defensive and athletic upside is limited, but that is such a special bat. .285 and 30 HR annually? Absolutely. Realistically, I wouldn't be upset with either Martin or Lacy at 2. Martin might not project the upside as a traditional 1-2, but there is something to be said for his tools across the board. Pitchers this high make me nervous as well, but a Rodriguez-Lacy-Hall top of the rotation sounds formidable, health permitting. 

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7 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

Well when people say his comp is Mookie freaking Betts, I think people are getting carried away with upside projections. I hope I look back at this post in 6 years and Martin has an MVP and multiple top 5 finishes. 

The comp is more to do with them having similar stances, slightly pull heavy swings, and profile than production.

I googled Mookie Betts as a prospect and his scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55

https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-leads-bostons-updated-top-20-list/c-85946126

Here is Martin's scouting grades from the same place:

HIT: 65 POWER: 50 RUN: 55 ARM: 50 FIELD: 55

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

Pretty similar profiles. Of course 95% of players with those scouting grades don't produce like Mookie Betts will.

Edited by Spl51

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7 hours ago, mcloy said:

I'm over the moon if Tork is available at 2. I get the defensive and athletic upside is limited, but that is such a special bat. .285 and 30 HR annually? Absolutely.

I like Tork too, but what you have outlined are Mark Trumbo's 162 game avg.  And people were upset at his 3yr-37.5 mil contract.  So, if that is the player I am getting with defensive limitations, hard pass.

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