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Greg Pappas

Poll: Who would YOU take if you could select any prospect at pick #2?

Who do you want the O's to draft, if all prospects were available?  

50 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you want the O's to draft, if all prospects were available?

    • 1B-Spencer Torkelson
    • Inf-OF Austin Martin
    • LHP-Asa Lacy
    • RHP-Emerson Hancock
    • OF-Zac Veen
    • 2B-Nick Gonzalez
    • Someone else.
      0


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So there are articles here which include the recent comments from Mayo that Martin could play CF like Adam Jones - using speed over instincts to become an above average CFer and you have written your belief that Martin is a backup CFer. 

I would say out loud, "Jeez, you can't make this stuff up", but we have a poster right here who is making this stuff up.

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8 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Tork has a 70% chance of being a force in the middle of the lineup so if he is available I would take him.    

I think Lacy, Hancock and Martin all are in the 50% range of being productive major leaugers.  I think the O's have to know who they are and what is most important for them.   Starting pitching is the key to them being a playoff team again and its hard for them to acquire.  Therefore if Tork is gone I would take Lacy #2,   Its hard of find a young lefty with his size and stuff.  Add him to Rodriguez, Hall and Means would raise the odds that the O's could put together a solid rotation for the future.

Martin has a 50% chance to be a 350 OBP leadoff hitter, 2B that produces 15-20 homers and steals per season IMO.  I don't think he is a 850 OPS guy as mainly a singles and doubles hit on a normal basis.  He may do that one or two times in his career.   Vandy has him listed at 170 lbs.  He looks like that is right.  He can add 15 lbs in the next few seasons and still be pretty thin.  He is not built for power.   His arm is average.  He may have Hays speed but he does not have Hays arm so he probably is not going to move Hays out of CF.   He is a good backup CF.  Henderson has a better arm for  3B.  The arm also makes Martin a good backup 3B.   His best position is probably 2B which is normally not a #2 pick.

While I would take Lacy I think Elias will take Martin.   Mainly because of the success he had in picking Correa and Bregman and failure he had in taking Appel and Aikens with high draft picks.

I completely understand your desire to draft an outstanding college starter, like Lacy. It would not be a 'bad' pick, certainly, as Lacy is well-regarded as the top starter in the draft and we absolutely need great pitching prospects added to the current group we have. So again, I get that. It's also true that Martin's defensive home is questionable. I personally think we'll try him at SS and then he'll likely convert to 2B.  But to say that Martin projects to a .350 OBP, is woefully selling him short.  The top hitter in this draft and among the best hitters scouted in recent memory, projects to a .400 OBP.  He is considered an elite bat with a great approach at the plate.

Martin's career at Vandy, playing in the country's toughest conference-- 
PA 665,    AB 543,   R 146,    H 200,    2B 39,   3B  4,    HR 14,    RBI 76,    SB 43,    CS 14,   BB 85,    K's 82,   BA .368,    OBP .474,    SLG 532,   OPS 1.007

austinstats.gif

 

One other important aspect of pitcher acquisition, is trading for it.  Free agency, as you say, may not be the route we are able to take the most advantage of, at least historically.  However, dealing from a plethora of hitting talent can net you equally impressive arms. Every team has weaknesses in their system and/or at the big league level.  Time and time again, year after year, teams deal minor league pitching prospects to fill holes... usually at the big league level.  So, while I agree that drafting our own pitching would be great, drafting hitting is simply adding quality depth to a system much in need of such an influx.  Build a great system, the pitching will come.

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5 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I completely understand your desire to draft an outstanding college starter, like Lacy. It would not be a 'bad' pick, certainly, as Lacy is well-regarded as the top starter in the draft and we absolutely need great pitching prospects added to the current group we have. So again, I get that. It's also true that Martin's defensive home is questionable. I personally think we'll try him at SS and then he'll likely convert to 2B.  But to say that Martin projects to a .350 OBP, is woefully selling him short.  The top hitter in this draft and among the best hitters scouted in recent memory, projects to a .400 OBP.  He is considered an elite bat with a great approach at the plate.

Martin's career at Vandy, playing in the country's toughest conference-- 
PA 665,    AB 543,   R 146,    H 200,    2B 39,   3B  4,    HR 14,    RBI 76,    SB 43,    CS 14,   BB 85,    K's 82,   BA .368,    OBP .474,    SLG 532,   OPS 1.007

austinstats.gif

 

One other important aspect of pitcher acquisition, is trading for it.  Free agency, as you say, may not be the route we are able to take the most advantage of, at least historically.  However, dealing from a plethora of hitting talent can net you equally impressive arms. Every team has weaknesses in their system and/or at the big league level.  Time and time again, year after year, teams deal minor league pitching prospects to fill holes... usually at the big league level.  So, while I agree that drafting our own pitching would be great, drafting hitting is simply adding quality depth to a system much in need of such an influx.  Build a great system, the pitching will come.

As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB.  Mike Trout and Joey Votto.    Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB.   That is a total of three.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders

So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them.   Odds are against it. 

College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all.   Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB.  Mike Trout and Joey Votto.    Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB.   That is a total of three.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders

So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them.   Odds are against it. 

College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all.   Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.

Well when people say his comp is Mookie freaking Betts, I think people are getting carried away with upside projections. I hope I look back at this post in 6 years and Martin has an MVP and multiple top 5 finishes. 

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I'm over the moon if Tork is available at 2. I get the defensive and athletic upside is limited, but that is such a special bat. .285 and 30 HR annually? Absolutely. Realistically, I wouldn't be upset with either Martin or Lacy at 2. Martin might not project the upside as a traditional 1-2, but there is something to be said for his tools across the board. Pitchers this high make me nervous as well, but a Rodriguez-Lacy-Hall top of the rotation sounds formidable, health permitting. 

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7 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

Well when people say his comp is Mookie freaking Betts, I think people are getting carried away with upside projections. I hope I look back at this post in 6 years and Martin has an MVP and multiple top 5 finishes. 

The comp is more to do with them having similar stances, slightly pull heavy swings, and profile than production.

I googled Mookie Betts as a prospect and his scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55

https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-leads-bostons-updated-top-20-list/c-85946126

Here is Martin's scouting grades from the same place:

HIT: 65 POWER: 50 RUN: 55 ARM: 50 FIELD: 55

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

Pretty similar profiles. Of course 95% of players with those scouting grades don't produce like Mookie Betts will.

Edited by Spl51
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7 hours ago, mcloy said:

I'm over the moon if Tork is available at 2. I get the defensive and athletic upside is limited, but that is such a special bat. .285 and 30 HR annually? Absolutely.

I like Tork too, but what you have outlined are Mark Trumbo's 162 game avg.  And people were upset at his 3yr-37.5 mil contract.  So, if that is the player I am getting with defensive limitations, hard pass.

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15 hours ago, wildcard said:

As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB.  Mike Trout and Joey Votto.    Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB.   That is a total of three.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders

So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them.   Odds are against it. 

College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all.   Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.

I wasn't implying CAREER .400 OBP.  C'mon Wildcard.  Seven hitters were above .400 OBP last year and a few others were nearly at .400. I don't expect Martin to have a career .400 OBP, but i think his upside and projection, based on everything I've read, indicate he has the capability to be a .400'ish OBP guy at least a few times during his prime.  Whether or not he ever approaches that level is still to be determined.  He may bust or just be a solid player with a .360 OBP. Time will tell... it always does.

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5 hours ago, Spl51 said:

The comp is more to do with them having similar stances, slightly pull heavy swings, and profile than production.

I googled Mookie Betts as a prospect and his scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55

https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-leads-bostons-updated-top-20-list/c-85946126

Here is Martin's scouting grades from the same place:

HIT: 65 POWER: 50 RUN: 55 ARM: 50 FIELD: 55

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

Pretty similar profiles. Of course 95% of players with those scouting grades don't produce like Mookie Betts will.

Thanks.  Very good post.   Good comparison of what Martin's upside could be.

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https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-picking-all-29-first-rounders?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Latest mock from Callis released today.  Callis says top 10 or so prospects are relatively defined.  Says Os contemplating 3 options - Martin, Lacy or save $ with Gonzalez for someone who might drop like Oklahoma LHP HS Dax Fulton.  This mock has Bitsko drafted in the middle third of the first round and some guys moving up from back of first round into the early 20s - most notably Jordan Foscue and Clayton Beeter.

Nico Gonzalez seems clear to be going in the first five picks or so, thus not sure exactly how much of a discount we would get though he absolutely loves the Os.

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8 hours ago, Spl51 said:

The comp is more to do with them having similar stances, slightly pull heavy swings, and profile than production.

I googled Mookie Betts as a prospect and his scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55

https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-leads-bostons-updated-top-20-list/c-85946126

Here is Martin's scouting grades from the same place:

HIT: 65 POWER: 50 RUN: 55 ARM: 50 FIELD: 55

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

Pretty similar profiles. Of course 95% of players with those scouting grades don't produce like Mookie Betts will.

I find Lacy grades and writeup very interesting:

Fastball: 60/ Slider: 60/  Change-up: 60/   Curve: 55/   Control: 50/  Overall: 60

Though Lacy exuded projection and top-five-rounds talent as a Texas high schooler in 2017, his $1 million price tag to give up his commitment to Texas A&M caused him to slide to the Indians in the 31st round. He has improved as hoped and will command a much higher bonus in the 2020 Draft, where he could surpass Jeff Granger (fifth overall, 1993) as the highest selection in Aggies history. After ranking third in NCAA Division I in opponent average (.162) and eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (13.2) as a sophomore, he pitched well with the U.S. collegiate national team in the summer.

Lacy has boosted his fastball from 87-91 mph in high school to 92-97 these days, using his 6-foot-4 frame to create downhill plane, and hitters just don't seem to get good swings against it. He employs two distinct breaking balls, a downer curveball and a harder slider in the low 80s, with the slider surpassing his curve this spring and becoming a plus pitch. His changeup fades and sinks and grades as a well above-average pitch at its best, and it should become more consistently plus as he uses it more often.

Lacy's biggest need is to improve his command and control. There's some effort in his three-quarters delivery and he's still learning to harness his overpowering stuff, so he can't always locate his pitches where he wants. Even without precise placement, he's a left-hander who can get swings and misses with four different offerings.

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I take Martin over Tork.  I just feel like a good hitting first baseman is much easier to find later in draft or on the free agent market.   We've had a dozen of them recently it seems (Davis, Trumbo, Mancini, etc).  Therefore Martin would get my pick i think. 

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On 5/28/2020 at 1:18 PM, wildcard said:

I find Lacy grades and writeup very interesting:

Fastball: 60/ Slider: 60/  Change-up: 60/   Curve: 55/   Control: 50/  Overall: 60

Though Lacy exuded projection and top-five-rounds talent as a Texas high schooler in 2017, his $1 million price tag to give up his commitment to Texas A&M caused him to slide to the Indians in the 31st round. He has improved as hoped and will command a much higher bonus in the 2020 Draft, where he could surpass Jeff Granger (fifth overall, 1993) as the highest selection in Aggies history. After ranking third in NCAA Division I in opponent average (.162) and eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (13.2) as a sophomore, he pitched well with the U.S. collegiate national team in the summer.

Lacy has boosted his fastball from 87-91 mph in high school to 92-97 these days, using his 6-foot-4 frame to create downhill plane, and hitters just don't seem to get good swings against it. He employs two distinct breaking balls, a downer curveball and a harder slider in the low 80s, with the slider surpassing his curve this spring and becoming a plus pitch. His changeup fades and sinks and grades as a well above-average pitch at its best, and it should become more consistently plus as he uses it more often.

Lacy's biggest need is to improve his command and control. There's some effort in his three-quarters delivery and he's still learning to harness his overpowering stuff, so he can't always locate his pitches where he wants. Even without precise placement, he's a left-hander who can get swings and misses with four different offerings.

He'd be a quality pick at #2 overall and if the rumors of him being a cheaper sign than Boras clients' Torkelson and Martin are true, it could certainly help with our other selections.  It's not what I would do, but I get the reasoning behind this potential selection.

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21 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I take Martin over Tork.  I just feel like a good hitting first baseman is much easier to find later in draft or on the free agent market.   We've had a dozen of them recently it seems (Davis, Trumbo, Mancini, etc).  Therefore Martin would get my pick i think. 

I get wanting Martin over Tork, but Tork isn't just a guy where you can find similar players later in a draft (or perhaps in FA).  He is by many accounts the best overall 1B prospect since Mark Teixeira and fairly among the draft's all-time greatest power-hitting prospects.  

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