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wildcard

Pitchers drafted #1 or #2 since 2000

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1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I'm not sure I would characterize Mark Prior as a "success story". 

18th of 60-some #2 overall picks in career value.  So top third of a really highly regarded group of ballplayers.  In other words, 70% of #2 picks were worse, and almost half of them had careers worth less than Prior's best season.

But it's the draft, and if a top five pick doesn't go to Cooperstown he's a disappointment.  Success is getting to the 95th percentile.

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1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I am not a big Bowden fan and I don't like the claim in his article that one shouldn't draft a pitcher in the top five slots in the first round just because of who was drafted in that slot in prior years.  The evaluation of a prospect should be a unique event, IMO.  However, Bowden's generalizations of the recent historical failure rates of the pitchers taken at the very top of a draft class uses the same line of reasoning (again, which I don't like) as is used in the OP of this thread and provides a starkly different conclusion - that the failure rate of SPs who were thought to be the best of their class is quite high.  A period which Bowden's article points out includes the Os selection of Brian Matusz.

Gausman is a good example of why he is wrong, I think. Sure he never became an Ace like we all hoped but he certainly pitched like one in stretches. IMO you make that pick every time and hope that guy can iron out the issues that were somewhat apparent at draft time.

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13 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Gausman is a good example of why he is wrong, I think. Sure he never became an Ace like we all hoped but he certainly pitched like one in stretches. IMO you make that pick every time and hope that guy can iron out the issues that were somewhat apparent at draft time.

Not sure the failure list for pitchers isnt the same basic failure rate for the position players.

You just need so many more pitchers.

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Elias likes position players for a reason and I expect he'll take Martin. Or Tork if he's there at #2 by some miracle. 

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2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I'm not sure I would characterize Mark Prior as a "success story". 

Prior had 4 successful years in the majors before getting hurt.   While it is disappointing that his career was cut short many pitchers would kill for a 42-29 3.51 ERA.  And if many GM new that was the outcome this would still draft him.

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18 minutes ago, interloper said:

Elias likes position players for a reason and I expect he'll take Martin. Or Tork if he's there at #2 by some miracle. 

Why, because he drafted a top notch catcher last season????

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10 hours ago, hoosiers said:

So, former GM Jim Bowden is now writing for the Atlantic.  According to his research, there were 42 players taken among the 80 players selected in the first five picks of the 16 MLB drafts between 2000 and 2015 and only five of the 42 have justified the selection - Verlander, Price, Strausburg, Cole and Bauer.  Two of those pitchers, Verlander and Strausburg, were "no-brainer" decisions.  It is a hit rate far below WC's opening post.

I missed Bauer in my analysis. My bad.

I suspect Bowden's definition of success is much higher than mine.  I think Prior and Taillon are two examples of pitcher that did find some success in the majors.  And though Hochevar did not have success has a starter, he did as a reliever.  He should probably  have been switched to a reliever earlier in his career.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Prior had 4 successful years in the majors before getting hurt.   While it is disappointing that his career was cut short many pitchers would kill for a 42-29 3.51 ERA.  And if many GM new that was the outcome this would still draft him.

I'm not a stat expert by any measure, but take away his magical 2003 season and where would he rank?

Maybe there needs to be another category for "Solid pick but Incomplete due to injury"

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On 5/28/2020 at 9:44 AM, survivedc said:

Gausman is a good example of why he is wrong, I think. Sure he never became an Ace like we all hoped but he certainly pitched like one in stretches. IMO you make that pick every time and hope that guy can iron out the issues that were somewhat apparent at draft time.

2014 - 2018 Gausman was pretty valuable. He wasn't an ace by any means, but an average pitcher is worth a pretty penny in free agency. You obviously would like to hit big on a #1 or #2 pick, but an around-league-average starting pitcher ain't worth nothin'.

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On 5/28/2020 at 11:27 AM, Jagwar said:

I'm not a stat expert by any measure, but take away his magical 2003 season and where would he rank?

Maybe there needs to be another category for "Solid pick but Incomplete due to injury"

Prior was a pitcher.  It wasn't a question of whether or not his arm was going to fall off, but of when.  His just fell off after a few really good seasons.

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Here is a list of the top 5 selections for college bats for the last 17 years.  Everyone made it to the majors with 13 having good to great careers.   The O’s should draft a college bat either Torkelson or Martin.

2000 none

2001 Teixeira
2002 none
2003 Weeks
2004 none
2005 Gordon, Clement, Zimmerman, Braun
2006. Longoria
2007 Wieters
2008 Alvarez, Posey
2009 Ackley, Sanchez
2010 none
2011 none
2012 Zunino
2013 Bryant
2014 schwarber
2015 Swanson, Bregman
2016 Senzel, Ray
2017 none
 
 

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17 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Prior was a pitcher.  It wasn't a question of whether or not his arm was going to fall off, but of when.  His just fell off after a few really good seasons.

Agreed. My point was that for a time Prior seemed like a fantastic pick until his arm did fall off.  

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