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DrungoHazewood

How will history assess 2020 for individuals?

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22 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

So when 2043 rolls around and you're pondering the storied career of Renato Nunez, remember it should have been six wins total, not just five.

Funny that you mention 2043.  That is the year my service ends with Tracfone.

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18 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

The pitching has gotten wickeder than in George Brett and Tony Gwynn's day, but somebody usually hangs around .400 for a month, and that's a story that will snowball, asterisks and all, if BABIP's favorite son among MLB's 10-best hitters can keep it going a second month.

Hunter Harvey and all his middle innings friends will likely stifle it, but the chances are through the roof.  I wonder if Trout would be happy to give that lost 5 WAR for a .401 on his baseball card!

If the owners get their way and have a 50 game season that's only 155 PAs to qualify for the batting title.

It's kind of too bad that David Newhan is always the poster child for these things, but in his first 155 PAs in 2004 he hit .376/.426/.567 with a nice little .410 BABIP. He was still at .403 at 141 PAs before finishing those 155 PAs 1 for 12 with 2 walks. I think it'd be great if a guy like that hits .400 in 2020*.

I remember Robbie Alomar was still over .400 in June of 1996 and just looked and he was at .404 after 59 games and 274 PAs. It won't be crazy at all if this happens. A guy like Newhan would be so much more amusing though. Maybe by some odd quirk the O's face like 80% lefties and Hanser gets there.

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18 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

It's funny, I was thinking about a similar question the other day... To answer yours, Drungo, I think it's just a forgotten year.  But Trout, as you point out, might get the asterisk to address a "drop" from Ty Cobb, when it sure looked like Trout would be the most valuable player in history... I think he still will be, btw.  But that leads me to what I was thinking about...

What player(s) benefit(s) the most by NOT playing this year?  And as Markoman, hysterically, points out, Chris Davis could benefit greatly by getting a whole extra year of practice and recovery/recuperation. lol.

 

But I think the flip side to what you are asking, Drungo, is also interesting.  Good topic!

I think the most we'll hear about it down the road is in regard to HOF cases. If a player like Miguel Cabrera ends up 100 hits shy of 3,000 - people will bring it up in those discussions.

The only real "record" that someone could achieve this season, like many have mentioned here, is hitting .400. I doubt people will give it much weight - and it'll probably become more of a trivia question or fun fact than a true honor.

If some crappy team like the Orioles somehow gets hot for 50 games and wins a World Series - there certainly will be the wink and nod that it was obviously a fluke - but it'll be too much fun for everyone for it not to mean something.

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1 hour ago, makoman said:

If the owners get their way and have a 50 game season that's only 155 PAs to qualify for the batting title.

It's kind of too bad that David Newhan is always the poster child for these things, but in his first 155 PAs in 2004 he hit .376/.426/.567 with a nice little .410 BABIP. He was still at .403 at 141 PAs before finishing those 155 PAs 1 for 12 with 2 walks. I think it'd be great if a guy like that hits .400 in 2020*.

I remember Robbie Alomar was still over .400 in June of 1996 and just looked and he was at .404 after 59 games and 274 PAs. It won't be crazy at all if this happens. A guy like Newhan would be so much more amusing though. Maybe by some odd quirk the O's face like 80% lefties and Hanser gets there.

The 2nd half of a season is never quite half, it's usually 70 games or so.  So I checked on 2nd half splits, and in the last 50 years six guys have hit .400 over that period.  And 26 have hit at least .380.  Even recently, in the period of declining batting averages:

                                                                                                                                                       
Rk    I            Player    Split Year  G   BA GS  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS  BB SO  OBP  SLG   OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1           Ichiro Suzuki 2nd Half 2004 76 .429 75 360 333 56 143  8  3  5  29 15  5  22 32 .465 .517  .982 172   1   2  1  2  12   4  .463   126   159
2            George Brett 2nd Half 1980 72 .421 71 326 280 57 118 21  4 16  77  9  6  38 10 .482 .696 1.178 195   6   1  0  7  10   3  .391   111   227
3              Joey Votto 2nd Half 2016 72 .408 71 314 262 53 107 19  2 15  55  2  0  47 32 .490 .668 1.158 175   8   0  0  5   8   0  .418   134   214
4             Barry Bonds 2nd Half 2002 61 .404 59 265 171 49  69 15  0 19  53  6  1  89 19 .608 .825 1.432 141   2   3  0  2  30   2  .370   108   280
5            Larry Walker 2nd Half 1998 61 .402 54 244 209 61  84 16  2 14  34  6  0  31 36 .480 .699 1.178 146   5   2  0  2   1   1  .435   119   209
6              Tony Gwynn 2nd Half 1993 47 .400 47 208 190 35  76 19  0  4  30  4  0  15  4 .438 .563 1.001 107   9   0  0  3   5   5  .389   123   171
7              Wade Boggs 2nd Half 1985 75 .395 74 353 311 59 123 20  2  5  40  1  0  40 30 .467 .521  .988 162  11   2  0  0   2   7  .428   113   172
8          Jim Eisenreich 2nd Half 1996 41 .391 35 151 138 18  54 13  1  1  19  3  0  12 10 .437 .522  .959  72   4   0  0  1   2   1  .414   116   152
9            George Brett 2nd Half 1990 71 .388 70 305 278 46 108 33  5 12  58  4  1  24 28 .433 .673 1.105 187   9   0  0  3   5   0  .398   143   212
10          Justin Turner 2nd Half 2014 50 .388 30 146 129 25  50 11  0  4  22  4  1  14 27 .459 .566 1.025  73   3   3  0  0   1   1  .469   128   197
11          Manny Ramirez 2nd Half 2008 63 .388 63 274 224 44  87 18  0 19  61  2  0  43 42 .485 .723 1.209 162   7   3  0  4  19   3  .407   133   214
12            Barry Bonds 2nd Half 2003 50 .388 48 201 134 43  52 11  0 15  27  0  0  64 19 .587 .806 1.393 108   3   2  0  1  24   1  .366   119   270
13             Hank Aaron 2nd Half 1973 43 .387 37 166 137 31  53  7  1 13  44  1  1  25 12 .470 .737 1.207 101   2   0  0  4   6   1  .345   132   237
14              J.T. Snow 2nd Half 2004 59 .387 47 224 181 42  70 18  1  9  44  2  0  37 25 .496 .646 1.142 117   0   4  0  2   0   1  .409   138   198
15           Albert Belle 2nd Half 1998 76 .387 76 328 282 61 109 26  1 31  86  4  0  38 34 .451 .816 1.267 230   6   1  0  7   9   2  .348   138   228
16           Johnny Damon 2nd Half 2000 76 .386 76 354 329 71 127 29  6  8  52 23  3  17 24 .413 .584  .997 192   5   1  3  4   0   9  .395   126   159
17              Wes Helms 2nd Half 2006 70 .385 28 154 130 21  50 14  3  5  29  0  2  13 23 .444 .654 1.098  85   5   4  3  4   0   0  .425   128   183
18           Buster Posey 2nd Half 2012 71 .385 69 298 257 43  99 23  1 14  60  0  1  37 46 .456 .646 1.102 166   7   0  0  4   7   2  .423   129   203
19         Miguel Cabrera 2nd Half 2011 69 .385 68 300 257 48  99 27  0 12  46  1  0  42 38 .470 .630 1.100 162   9   0  0  1   8   2  .418   112   200
20         Roberto Alomar 2nd Half 1997 37 .384 35 153 138 20  53 12  0  6  24  2  2  10 12 .424 .601 1.025  83   4   1  2  2   1   0  .385   129   170
21          Josh Hamilton 2nd Half 2010 48 .384 47 203 177 36  68 15  1 10  36  1  0  19 25 .448 .650 1.098 115   9   4  0  3   1   1  .400   112   202
22            Mike Napoli 2nd Half 2011 61 .383 58 249 214 44  82 15  0 18  42  3  1  33 47 .466 .706 1.171 151   4   1  0  1   2   3  .427   124   217
23            John Olerud 2nd Half 1998 77 .381 72 326 281 51 107 20  1 15  47  1  1  41 33 .457 .619 1.076 174   9   1  0  3   3   4  .390   115   184
24              Rod Carew 2nd Half 1977 67 .381 63 299 273 58 104 18  2  8  42 13  3  24 22 .430 .549  .979 150   2   0  1  1   4   2  .393    92   169
25             Wade Boggs 2nd Half 1988 73 .380 73 339 271 69 103 22  4  3  27  0  2  63 13 .493 .524 1.017 142  10   1  0  4   7   6  .386   111   198
26        Victor Martinez 2nd Half 2005 71 .380 69 301 263 42 100 19  0 11  45  0  1  35 42 .449 .578 1.026 152   7   0  0  3   5   1  .418   141   175

Ichiro was doing his best peak-Willie Keeler impersonation the second half of '04.

And how do you like Albert Belle's steroid-era walk year finish in '98?  .387/.451/.816 with 31 homers, good for a Bondsian 1.267 OPS.  Sure impressed Mr. Angelos.

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The other side of that is when you have a smaller sample buried in a line that includes the first half some players will have truly ugly performances:

                                                                                                                                                      
Rk    I              Player    Split Year  G   BA GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1                Bill Doran 2nd Half 1989 55 .131 48 208 176 26 23  9  0  0   9  8  0 26 24 .244 .182 .426  32   0   1  3  2   1   3  .149    37    25
2                 Dan Uggla 2nd Half 2013 48 .133 43 178 143 14 19  2  0  4  13  2  0 27 55 .298 .231 .529  33   4   7  0  1   2   1  .176    60    53
3                Adam Engel 2nd Half 2017 70 .136 68 242 220 19 30  8  3  4  16  4  0 11 92 .198 .255 .453  56   0   6  5  0   0   4  .210    75    21
4               Steve Jeltz 2nd Half 1988 69 .137 60 205 182 16 25  3  0  0  11  0  0 18 28 .214 .154 .368  28   4   0  4  1   1   2  .161    38     9
5              Derek Norris 2nd Half 2016 49 .144 44 177 160 12 23  4  0  2   9  5  2 16 64 .226 .206 .432  33   3   1  0  0   2   1  .223    51    20
6                Vic Harris 2nd Half 1972 58 .144 53 192 180  8 26  5  1  0  10  7  3 12 37 .198 .183 .381  33   0   0  0  0   1   3  .182   107    16
7            J.P. Arencibia 2nd Half 2013 54 .145 44 173 166 11 24  5  0  5  13  0  0  5 50 .173 .265 .438  44   4   1  0  1   0   3  .170    49    22
8              Jerry Kenney 2nd Half 1970 65 .149 47 192 168 15 25  3  1  1  10  9  1 23 17 .251 .196 .448  33   4   0  1  0   1   5  .160    58    29
9            Gordon Beckham 2nd Half 2016 54 .152 30 155 138 10 21  9  0  2  14  0  0 12 36 .219 .261 .480  36   7   1  0  4   1   1  .183    50    31
10            Jon Singleton 2nd Half 2014 57 .155 50 207 174 26 27  7  0  7  23  1  1 33 77 .290 .316 .606  55   0   0  0  0   0   3  .222    96    76

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On 6/3/2020 at 9:20 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

There was never an asterisk.  But for a while there were two entries in the official MLB records, one for Maris and one for Ruth.  Because commish Ford Frick had previously written a bio of Ruth and kind of worshiped him, couldn't stand to see his record broken.

Looking back, I understand it.    1961 was the very first year they played 162 games.   It’s not like today when they’ve been doing it for almost 50 years.    

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On 6/3/2020 at 9:57 AM, MongoBoy said:

Funny that you mention 2043.  That is the year my service ends with Tracfone.

I think I might get rid of my rotary phone by then.Maybe? Will probably still be debating. 

 

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On 6/2/2020 at 3:17 PM, atomic said:

NHL missed a whole season. I don’t think people think about it too much anymore. 

If Ovechkin comes up just short of Gretzky's career goal total it might. 

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On 6/2/2020 at 12:56 PM, makoman said:

This made me laugh.

And remember that Chris Davis should have ended up at 11 fWAR, rather than retiring at 12.7 (hopefully). 

Chris Davis was getting ready for another 2013 ;)

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