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DocJJ

Take the safe pick at #2 or sign someone under slot?

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My take- when you are rebuilding and get the #2 overall pick, you can't afford a misfire.   The only guy I might be willing to see if I could sign for under slot with the #2 pick is Nick Gonzales...  but how far under slot would he sign for?  I can't imagine he could be had for too much under slot, as most mocks have him going in the top 6 picks anyway.   

I'd take Lacy or Martin.   Don't get cute, Elias....

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Agreed. Why take a lesser player at #2 to get a better player at #30?  The only reason I would do that is if I'm just not really as high on the top 3 as the concensus seems to be.  

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9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Agreed. Why take a lesser player at #2 to get a better player at #30?  The only reason I would do that is if I'm just not really as high on the top 3 as the concensus seems to be.  

Because you think the overall value would be higher.

 

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We don't know how the O's are stacking their boards, but if they mirror how most analysts see the top, they should take the top talent available and not play the underslot game.  However, if they value Zac Veen or Lacy or whomever in a virtual tie for the second pick, then I understand wanting to sign the cheaper option. I'd love to have access to Elias' rankings and thoughts about now. :) FWIW I'd take Austin Martin or Tork (if he is available.) 

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you think the overall value would be higher.

 

Right. But historically the certainty is at the very top of the draft. The consensus is pretty much that 3 players are separate from the rest. So, IMO, one near certainty and the bpa at #30 is a better value than someone outside those 3 plus a guy who slides from #15 or whatever. 😏

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23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right. But historically the certainty is at the very top of the draft. The consensus is pretty much that 3 players are separate from the rest. So, IMO, one near certainty and the bpa at #30 is a better value than someone outside those 3 plus a guy who slides from #15 or whatever. 😏

I'll agree that in most cases it is the best move.

 

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Quote

2. Baltimore Orioles- Austin Martin, CF, Vanderbilt
There’s a pretty significant fork in the road here. Teams picking behind Baltimore still think this situation is fluid, that the Orioles have been shopping around (initially Nick Gonzales, who has realistic homes at four through six) looking to cut a deal as they try for an optimal quality/quantity combination for their class as a whole. Sources think the team has explored getting a deal done for between $4 million and $4.5 million, which is the slot amount between picks 11 and 14. It’s logical for Baltimore to explore this with Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad and North Carolina State catcher Patrick Bailey, as they’re two pretty stable college bats generally ranked in the eight to 11 range on most teams’ boards. They’re both in the mix between picks seven and 11, and are likely to get something close to slot there, which is more than the $4.5 million mark teams think Baltimore might be shooting for. In short, I think Martin is the most likely one (which is why I have him mocked, duh), with Gonzales next, and then some wild card deep cut.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-2/

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Elias said on Friday he will take the best player available with the #2 pick.

"Or who we think might turn out the best..."

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Martin would not be the safe pick.  He would be the prospect who is a consensus top 3 talent in this year's draft and a very worthy pick at 1:2.  Martin is unlikely to offer a big signing discount to slot and so would reduce our bonus pool dramatically because so much of the pool is associated with this pick.

It would be somewhat wild to see the Os venture outside the guys who appear consensus to be the first 10 picks .... and then to see what we do with the $.  Whether it is to get a stud or two at 30/39 or to sign four or five of our remaining five picks to signing bonuses of $1.5M or more. If we dropped from the number two overall prospect in Martin, generally, to someone like Bailey, would we then end up with three or four other consensus top 50 talents.

Such an approach seems incredibly risky to assume the right talents are there at 39, 74 and later on one hand.

Perhaps if we have higher grades or confidence in a prospect like Hjerstad, then maybe it is not so risky after all.

I understand there are a lot of gaming scenarios here - based on the above strategy or taking senior signs in rounds four and five to get more $ for a third round pick.  I would prefer to let the draft come to me - after taking Martin.  There should be excellent prospects available at 30/39 and 74.  I also think we would be very pleased at who we could sign for slot with our fourth and fifth round picks. 

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I think there is a lot more merit to this strategy when the underslot player you pick is not a huge reach and still a consensus top 5-10ish prospect (like Carlos Correa).  So, it's entirely possible that Elias and co. think there is not much of a gap between someone like Martin and Veen or Gonzales (if one at all).  However, if you draft a Patrick Bailey or Heston Kjerstad and believe that there is a significant drop off from Martin to those two just to save money for later in the draft, I think that is incredibly risky.

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They take Bailey and I wonder how quickly threads pop up about the club looking at moving Rutschman to 1st to save his knees and whether or not his bat plays in the corner infield. 

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