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Take the safe pick at #2 or sign someone under slot?

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5 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

While I (in my amateur opinion) am leaning toward Martin as well, the one thing that does give me pause is his positional projection. Concerns about arm for third, range for center. I did like the one suggestion I saw that even if he were a second baseman, he has hands somewhat reminiscent of Baez without the free swinging ways.

I think that might've been in Keith Law's rankings. He had Martin #1 on the board and compared him athletically to Baez and George Springer. The difference was that those guys struck out like crazy and Martin hardly ever strikes out by comparison.

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8 minutes ago, O-Arm36 said:

I think that might've been in Keith Law's rankings. He had Martin #1 on the board and compared him athletically to Baez and George Springer. The difference was that those guys struck out like crazy and Martin hardly ever strikes out by comparison.

Yep, that sounds right. And to be clear, the point of that statement was the potential positive despite the concern I cited.

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The comments from Elias about Correa’s selection that I have seen always refer to him as being the “best player available.” He has even said that other teams had Correa at the top of their board as well. He happened to get a lesser deal, despite the fact that the Astros had him ranked #1 on their board. So, his recent comments do not cement anything in my mind about taking Martin or Torkelson. I believe what he says about taking who they think is the BPA. Whether it is the more common two, or Gonzalez or Veen.

I do not think, based on many comments around the industry, that they will take a pitcher. Too much risk when there are is very good hitters available. 

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3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

The comments from Elias about Correa’s selection that I have seen always refer to him as being the “best player available.” He has even said that other teams had Correa at the top of their board as well. He happened to get a lesser deal, despite the fact that the Astros had him ranked #1 on their board. So, his recent comments do not cement anything in my mind about taking Martin or Torkelson. I believe what he says about taking who they think is the BPA. Whether it is the more common two, or Gonzalez or Veen.

I do not think, based on many comments around the industry, that they will not take a pitcher. Too much risk when there are is very good hitters available. 

This is very important distinction. Whomever they take, Elias will say unequivocally that he believes they were the best player in the board. 
 

I struggle to think anyone would justify Gonzalez being BPA ahead of Martin since Martin can seemingly do everything Gonzalez does with more defensive versatility and he did it at a higher level of competition. I could see an argument for Veen on pure, rose-colored glasses upside. 

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36 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

This is very important distinction. Whomever they take, Elias will say unequivocally that he believes they were the best player in the board. 
 

I struggle to think anyone would justify Gonzalez being BPA ahead of Martin since Martin can seemingly do everything Gonzalez does with more defensive versatility and he did it at a higher level of competition. I could see an argument for Veen on pure, rose-colored glasses upside. 

Agreed - Martin is producing against SEC pitchers.  He has faced some excellent pitchers and has succeeded. 

 

I can't imagine how stressful the weeks leading up to the draft and the actual draft are for a ball club's brain trust.  It seems there is so much riding on these picks - especially for teams with high draft picks (which means they are in a re-building process at the big league level and don't have much margin for error).  

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1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

Agreed - Martin is producing against SEC pitchers.  He has faced some excellent pitchers and has succeeded. 

 

I can't imagine how stressful the weeks leading up to the draft and the actual draft are for a ball club's brain trust.  It seems there is so much riding on these picks - especially for teams with high draft picks (which means they are in a re-building process at the big league level and don't have much margin for error).  

Ya and this year must be more stressful than ever. You better have faith in your local scouts because so many picks will be made sight unseen, by comparison to most years. And then what happens after the draft with no minor leagues? I keep thinking about these high school guys. How much physical maturity will Veen go through before he's even able to play a live game again?

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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The only real question regarding Martin is his arm.  Elite bate speed with great contact skills and plate discipline.    I'll take that offensively, alone, over any of the other guys mentioned, including Torkelson.   Throw in above average speed, good hands, good instincts, and it seems the real question is whether can can play on the left side of the IF or not.  2B seems like almost a worst case scenario.    The one thing that I would like to know, is if there is some question if he was having arm problems this spring or is it generally thought that he has a below average arm.   I haven't seen anything definitive regarding his arm.

Scouting reports had his arm at a 50-55 on the 20-80 scale (if my memory holds up), but it seems there was a lingering injury this season and he had issues.  I suspect his arm will be at least average moving forward, if not a tick above.  The throwing issues will likely go away as whatever ailed him is resolved.

This was from ProspectsLive back in March: 

Quote

Possibly the best overall player in the draft, Martin put himself on the map as a consensus top of the first round pick after leading Vandy to a National Championship in 2019. As a sophomore, he led the SEC with a .392 AVG while posting a 1.090 OPS. Martin is the whole package. He is arguably the best pure hitter in the draft with many figure the hit tool to be at least plus. Although not being super physical, he should be capable of hitting 20-25 home runs. This season Martin has been playing centerfield, showing an above-average arm and speed. He played 3B prior to this season, where he is a strong defender. Many believe he is more than able to play short.

Here's a piece from CBSSports where Vanderbilt's Hitting Coach, Mike Baxter, answered a defensive question (among a bunch of other questions) about Martin:

Quote

Where do you think he ends up defensively?

I don't know. I think that the value of him is that he can fill in spots. I think you see the trend of Major League Baseball right now ... you're really seeing it firsthand, especially in L.A., their strategy of 'you've got a first baseman who can play center field,' 'you've got a catcher who can play second base,' you've got [Enrique Hernandez] who can bounce around the middle of the field, right? 

I can tell you he played Gold Glove-caliber, or All-SEC defense third base last year, he's proven he can do that. His instincts in center field are natural. He jumps out there for us, we threw him out there really without a ton of reps and training throughout the year because he was taking groundballs, and we threw him out there on a Tuesday and then he's diving around, making plays, and getting great jumps, and Wednesday he's starting in center field. So, I think that's the beauty of him, that he can really play at a high level at multiple positions, but if you had to nail it down, I'm not sure. 

I believe he could play a high-level center field, and I only say that because nobody's really seen him do that as much. People probably feel more comfortable with him in the infield because he has more innings that way, but I believe that center field is a real tool for him, too.

 

 

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Elias said in an interview that this is not the draft for an under slot strategy at the top with only 5 rounds. It should be Martin, his OPS the last 2 years in the SEC were higher than anyone in the Orioles organization produced and Martins power numbers are predicted to increase. 

Edited by Orioles5258

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29 minutes ago, Orioles5258 said:

 

Elias said in an interview that this is not the draft for an under slot strategy at the top with only 5 rounds. It should be Martin, his OPS the last 2 years in the SEC were higher than anyone in the Orioles organization produced and Martins power numbers are predicted to increase. 

Everything Elias has said has been hedged to some degree.    I think he’s likely to go BPA, but I won’t be surprised if he adopts an underslot strategy.    And I guarantee you that, no matter what he does, he will say he took the player he liked the best of the available choices, regardless of whether it’s true.   

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I agree, I think whoever Elias picks he’ll say was the best player available, regardless of whether or not that’s the case.  Personally I’d go with Martin, and will be disappointed if we pass on him.  The only thing that would give me pause is that he’s a Boras client.

Edited by toughbuff1

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11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Everything Elias has said has been hedged to some degree.    I think he’s likely to go BPA, but I won’t be surprised if he adopts an underslot strategy.    And I guarantee you that, no matter what he does, he will say he took the player he liked the best of the available choices, regardless of whether it’s true.   

This is where I’m at. He did not say he wouldn’t go underslot, not in the interviews I have seen. He said it would be difficult because of the limited number of rounds to potentially spread the savings out. In other words, if he misses the over slot candidates he wants at 30/39, then what does he do with the saved money. He would look bad to a point. 
And the GM speak of Elias is polished. It will be the BPA according to their board. 

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Kiley McDaniels latest mock draft has us taking Martin at 2, Bitsko at 30, and Jordan Westburg at 39. I would be ecstatic if we could do that, but I don't see how we can do that unless we go with a senior in the 4th and maybe even 5th.

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36 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Kiley McDaniels latest mock draft has us taking Martin at 2, Bitsko at 30, and Jordan Westburg at 39. I would be ecstatic if we could do that, but I don't see how we can do that unless we go with a senior in the 4th and maybe even 5th.

Yes, give'm the Jay Flaa move

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