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Take the safe pick at #2 or sign someone under slot?

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On 6/8/2020 at 9:13 AM, weams said:

The #2 slot is $7.8 mill and I previously saw an argument that suggested it would take 6-6.5mill (don't recall the link, probably a post on here).  Interesting to see this suggest as low as 4-4.5 million.  Is there a reason he would sign that low when it seems he is likely top 6?  Does he have a higher interest is Baltimore?

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16 hours ago, Yossarian said:

So he could fill in at 2B, 3B, LF or CF?  Plus hits for average, has a little pop and does not strike out?  Sounds like exactly the type of player we need. 

Just going on record.  He can't do them all at the same time.  ;)

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I don't think we can expect any more than $250k slot savings with Martin.

The question is what is Bitsko's number.  He will price himself out of the draft if he sticks at a number above $3M once out of the first round.  The Os pick at 30 has a slot of $2.4M.  I expect something can get done between those numbers.  

I think Westburg would sign for slot at 39.

My second question is whether there is going to be a resetting of bonus requests among guys who thought they would go on Day 1 but did not.  There may be more guys willing to take slot at 39 after the drafting tonight than entering tonight.  

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1 hour ago, jerios55 said:

The #2 slot is $7.8 mill and I previously saw an argument that suggested it would take 6-6.5mill (don't recall the link, probably a post on here).  Interesting to see this suggest as low as 4-4.5 million.  Is there a reason he would sign that low when it seems he is likely top 6?  Does he have a higher interest is Baltimore?

The article could have been worded better, IMO, but I think what Fangraphs is saying here is that, while it would be nice for the Orioles to sign Gonzales, Kjerstad, or Bailey at 4-4.5 million, it isn't very likely that they could, so drafting Martin makes more sense.  I agree that they aren't going to be able to get a guy anywhere near as good as Martin or Gonzales at $4 million. 

Elias said he would only take an "under-slot" guy if the Orioles actually had him rated as good or better than the consensus guys (Tork, Martin, and Lacy.)  I take that to mean that if they take Gonzales, it would be because the Orioles had him ranked right there with the big three. Or at least they will claim that they did.   As FRobby posted earlier, we can be pretty well sure that no matter who we take at #2, Elias will say that he's the guy that was at the top of our board when our turn to draft came up.  (Whether it is really true or not.)

One important aspect to this, IMO, is that the Orioles would have to have identified multiple potential over-slot guys at 30 in order to employ such a strategy.  To do so with just one certain guy in mind is way too risky, since that guy could very well be drafted by another team before we are on the clock at #30.

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12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where is the bar you are setting between fool and principal? 200K?  500K.  Is 200K worth the acrimony it might cause in negotiations?

 

Autorenewing is going to cause more acrimony than the initial signing.

I said a couple hundred grand.

To me that isn't what Weams meant.

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18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where is the bar you are setting between fool and principal? 200K?  500K.  Is 200K worth the acrimony it might cause in negotiations?

 

It's Boras. He's gonna want acrimony.

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7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe. I think Martin gets slot but Boras could be a pain and try for more. 

Witt, who was a high school player, signed for slot. I can't find anyone under the current agreement that signed for overslot that were picked this high.

As a college player with less leverage I'll be disappointed if they can't save a least 200K on this pick.

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Word is that Martin considers himself the #1 prospect and wants 1.1 money.  If the Orioles think he's ultimately a second baseman and his bat is not much better than Gonzalez (already a solid second baseman), why not save and go bigger with #30 and #39?

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8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/6/9/21284125/joe-doyles-final-2020-mlb-mock-draft-mariners

Sorry.  I'm sure I saw a specific reference to 1.1 money but can't find it now.

Quote

This is where things get a little dicey. Mike Elias isn’t shy about taking the most affordable option on the board, and who can blame him with two more picks in the Top 40 (31, 39). In 2012, Elias and Scouting Director Bobby Heck selected Astros shortstop Carlos Correa over Max Fried, Mark Appel and Byron Buxton. Unconfirmed reports are Correa was the lowest bidder. I think that’s the case here too.

In conversations I’ve had with folks connected to the situation, Gonzales may be the most affordable option here. The Orioles could save upwards of $2 million with this pick, opening the door for some real splash picks later. Heston Kjerstad could save them even more. Also, it should be noted, if Austin Martin ultimately ends up at second base, suddenly the value margin between he and Gonzales drastically shrinks. With Martin being a Scott Boras client, don’t be surprised if he prices himself out of the Elias market.

This is the most negative we've seen this framed. I don't know what type of leverage Martin thinks he has as a college junior. I'm not opposed to drafting Martin if he's taking slot and then doing our best with the later two picks. If Martin is going to start making the signability of 30 and 39 a question or risk blowing the entire budget, then I may agree with underslot gamble. 

Of course, this is the first place I've seen this reported in this manner. 

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On 6/9/2020 at 10:42 PM, Frobby said:

Everything Elias has said has been hedged to some degree.    I think he’s likely to go BPA, but I won’t be surprised if he adopts an underslot strategy.    And I guarantee you that, no matter what he does, he will say he took the player he liked the best of the available choices, regardless of whether it’s true.   

How’d I do?

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On 6/14/2020 at 10:26 AM, Frobby said:

How’d I do?

Good, but even with the underslot strategy, did you assume he was going to use the extra money on the 30th and/or 39th picks?  Him using it on the 4th and 5th rounders was something I hadn't even considered.  

I would have gone Lacy and not even given it a second thought, but I really admire him having the smarts and guts to go this way and pull it off.  

  

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