Remember making raids to Bostons message board to read the depression that september of 11? Sons of Sam Horn was so much fun reading. "Robert F...ing Andino" all they could say. Andino beat the Red Sox three different times in like a three week time that fall.
Imagine them hating Andino with a passion!
Hi! May I ask where you got those stats? I'm trying to be smarter when it comes to baseball and understand stats like you do. I really wanna be able to talk baseball with all of you, but I don't know a lot and don't know the sites you go to and how you know so much.
I came here to weigh in on Bundy too as he's off to a rough start. Just looking at the numbers, I think Bundy while not pitching well is having bad luck in addition. His WHIP is 1.26, 4.08 FIP and 1.5 home runs per nine innings. All of those stats are within his career averages or slightly better so far.
I think Bundy will come around if he keeps the home runs allowed from blowing up and doesn't get wild.
wildcard, you stole my thunder. For years I posted an “at the quarter pole” thread that listed how various stats projected out. Thanks for saving me the work!
So what’s real, what’s not real, and what’s still undecided? I’ve always felt that somewhere between now and Memorial Day was around the time to start taking stats seriously. Not that they’ll all hold, but they are no longer the product of absurdly small sample sizes. Here’s a few thoughts.
The offensive player who seems most likely for a course correction is Cedric Mullins - his BA is 27 points above his xBA, his wOBA is 37 points above his xwOBA, his BABIP is 69 points above league average. His numbers are going to head significantly down. The good news: even with those corrections he should be an above average major league CF this year when the dust has cleared, and his defense is outstanding.
Both Maikel Franco and Rio Ruiz have very low BABIPs, but when you look behind that, they are making very poor contact and their xBA and xwOBA are very close to their BA and wOBA. I’d like to think that at least Franco will rebound, but I’m not counting on it.
I don’t see anyone else whose actual BA/wOBA are grossly disparate from expectations based on K rate and quality of contact. Still, I feel there is way more upside vs. downside in the offense. Lots of players are underperforming past numbers and I have to feel they will come around. Some of the younger guys are still learning and will improve as the year progresses I think. The offense is at 3.85 runs/game and .669. I expect those numbers to rise, though our offense will remain below average.
It’s too late at night for me to shift gears and talk pitching. Offhand I don’t see likely improvement there on a group basis, but I’ll need to look a little harder.
Ordinarily, I'd say about a guy like Sisco, who has some credentials as a hitter but looks lost at the plate, "Give him steady, regular at-bats and see whether he hits." I might still say that. But the complication is that the Orioles have a catcher they expect to be getting most of the ABs for a few years. I think it's unlikely that giving Sisco a lot more ABs will help determine whether he should be considered for the role of back-up catcher, but maybe it would help him develop better habits or gain confidence or something that would bear on his value as Adley's backup.