Jump to content

2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

And you think this strategy makes more sense in year where they've condensed the number of rounds from 40 to 5? To me, if there ever was a year to swing for the fences with a top pick it is this year. 

Flip side is that perhaps there’s a better pool advantage vs. other years. Does anyone know the numbers? Guessing relevant metric is percentage of total pool?

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Yeah, we'll need someone to replace Chris Davis after a couple more years, and this apparently was the closest comp available. :rolleyes: 

Can Kjerstad pitch a little, or play a bad third base?

Mountcastle 1B

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Puts on tin foil hat:

Ownership mandated they they sign a left handed power bat to replace Davis.

Takes off tin foil hat, neatly folds it and puts it away.

Is Peter back running things?

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Henderson hasn't grown into his power yet so he's an unknown. He very well may turn into a legitimate power hitter prospect, but for now, he's too raw to really say he's left-handed power in the system. Rutschman counts for sure despite being a switch-hitter. Santander is on the major league roster and doesn't really count as in the system but either way, while having pop, he doesn't have plus power.

This might be a dumb question, but what is the difference between pop and power? I thought they were the same.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Orioles Information

Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2021 Minor League Depth Chart

2021 Prospect Power Rankings

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports


2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats

  • Posts

    • I was there. It’s hard for me to tell how he looked without the zoomed in camera from centerfield that we see on TV. There was a lot of hard hit contact. He was pretty lucky to get out of 3 innings with only 1 earned run, although the error that led to an unearned run was his own, on a pickoff attempt. I never take the rehab outings’ results too seriously unless there’s like obviously a command/velocity problem due to a lagging injury. 
    • Right..his bat isn’t good enough for the OF and we have a lot of options there long term.  He has zero future as a LFer.  He is either a second baseman or a UTI guy, if he’s anything.  
    • Yep, let's see what he can do.  His best position may be left field but by all accounts, he doesn't have the bat to carry him there so it looks like 2B or bust.  Let's find out. 
    • Yeah, he signed a 6 year deal there for $7 mil - rather than try again in the 2019 draft - must not have thought he'd be a first round pick again.   Man, that stinks for Rocker.  Hopefully he comes back 100% healthy.    
    • It doesn’t matter if Jones isn’t a second baseman right now.  You make him show you that he isn’t one at this level. If that is proven, so be it..right now, on a team that doesn’t care about winning and one that has horrendous options like Valaika getting a lot of playing time over there, you see what you have because, why not?
    • I think I know what SG would say.  Its because Eshelman is no good.   But that is not the reason that Elias made the move.  My guess is he is ready to activate Richie Martin from the 60 day IL and needs the 40 man roster spot.   Martin will probably be assigned to AAA for at least a month.   Then Elias will decide it he is ready for a promotion to the majors.   Speaking about the infield,  Baltimorebaseball.com has an article speculating that the O's are about ready to promote Jahmai Jones to the majors to play 2B. https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2021/08/02/minor-monday-jahmai-jones-nearing-promotion-orioles/ To me this the Ryan Mountcastle position fiasco  all over again.  The O's trying to be a square pen in a round hole.   The O's tried Ryan at SS/3B/LF before finally realizing that he is first baseman.     All the reports I've read and what I have seen of Jones makes me feel he is not a 2B.   His best position is probably left field.     And while Hays will gets the majority of playing time at left field that does not change my belief that's Jones best position.   His bat is what gets him to the majors but it will not keep him at 2B IMO.   You can say what is the harm in playing Jones at 2B for the rest of the year and beside it probably being ugly you are probably right.  But let's not lose sight that there is probably a move to the outfield in Jones future again IMO. With Stowers arriving in the majors next year sometime and Neustrom probably ready by next spring the O's will soon have plenty of corner outfielders.  Hays and Santander get the playing time in the corners for the last third of this season trying  to show they can hit major league pitching and hold on to their spots but if you count Jones  and oft injured  Diaz in that outfield competition there are more outfielders than spots and a trade or two are likely next year. That traffic jam would seem to be a reason to trade Mancini from the DH/1B role but Mancini has something that none of those guys have.  A bat that produces 30 homers and 90+ RBI a season.    I am not saying how  all this turns out but the traffic jam is predictable.
    • Do you mean, median WAR/team from the draft?    I haven’t seen that exact calculation, but here’s an article that breaks things down a bit: https://community.fangraphs.com/analyzing-the-draft/ Finger to the wind, I’d say a median team draft produces about 20 rWAR.   I think the median may be considerably below the mean, and so an endless string of median-level drafts would not be a good result. I get there three different ways.   First, the article shows that the available WAR in a draft is roughly 600 on average.  600/30 = 20. Second, I did a study of the AL East drafts a while back and found that the drafts from 2000-09 had produced 1100 WAR.   1100 for 5 teams over 10 years = 22 WAR per year.   That number can rise a bit since some of those players are still playing, though most aren’t.    Third, we know that WAR is calibrated so that an average team will have 34 WAR in a year.   70-75% comes from drafted players, the rest from foreign players.  So figure 26 WAR/year from drafted players.   Logically, the draft should be supplying about that much talent every year for the system to be self-sustaining.   The reason I think the mean is probably significantly higher than the median is that one star player might produce enough WAR to cover 2-3 drafts.    FWIW, the Orioles’ 2000-2009 drafts had produced 153 WAR going into this season.    Clearly a below average total, which is not surprising.   
  • Popular Contributors

  • Create New...