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2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

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2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

We shall see. I will say this, part of being a good evaluator is seeing what others don’t and exploiting that info asymmetry to your advantage. Jury out on the pick, but tough to immediately judge a pro evaluator with track record in a negative light for breaking against public opinion. 

When I said "he's putting his job on the line", what I meant was that this pick had better work out, because he took the consensus 9th (roughly) best player with the 2nd pick.  If he turns out well, he looks like a genius.  If he washes out, his job is in jeopardy.  We'll know in 2-3 years.  

Of course, If he was told to take Kjerstad to save money, then it's his credibility rather than his job on the line, as someone else said.  

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4 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

So, Elias calls Boras before the draft and says, "I want some slot savings on my number two overall pick.  Would your guy sign for $7.0M?"

Boras: "Martin is the best hitter in the draft.  We want overslot here - closer to $8.0M."

Elias - "I have other options rated as high as Martin.  I am not sure if the Marlins will take your boy.  I hear they like Meyer."

Boras:  "Martin is not getting past the Marlins if you pass on him.  He will get more than $7M from the Marlins."

Elias:  "Not sure you are reading the market right, Scott.  I like your boy, but the Royals like Lacy. "

Boras:  "You are bluffing."

Elias:  "I am looking at a top 10 rated talent with a higher slugging % in 2020 than Tork."

Boras:  "We have done our due diligence.  It is your loss if you pass on Martin."

Elias:  "Slot for Toronto at 1:5: is $6.2M, Scott.  I am offering $7.0.  Final offer."

Boras:  "Martin is the best hitter in the draft.  He will not get to 5."

Elias:  "Enjoy the draft, Scott."

I'd still rather draft Martin and force him to turn down 7M and go back to school.

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49 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

You better get it right. 

You better get it right when you take a corner outfielder with a 40 run tool who was projected to go between 10 and 15 over the consensus # 2 pick, a versatile athletic MI/OF who was considered the best pure hitter in the draft. 

I think folks need to take a step back and really get a grip on how incomplete these draft profiles are because of the missed playing time.  If you believe Kjerstad made real improvements at the plate and in 2020 was on his way to cutting down his K rate 40% and was among the D1 Power 5 leaders in slugging, then his selection becomes very defensible.

We do have an enormous sum of $ for overslot signings the rest of the draft.  Not sure if we can get both Ginn and a top HS pitcher, but we should have the $ for both.  We could walk away from the draft with four guys signed over $2.0M.

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9 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

So, Elias calls Boras before the draft and says, "I want some slot savings on my number two overall pick.  Would your guy sign for $7.0M?"

Boras: "Martin is the best hitter in the draft.  We want overslot here - closer to $8.0M."

Elias - "I have other options rated as high as Martin.  I am not sure if the Marlins will take your boy.  I hear they like Meyer."

Boras:  "Martin is not getting past the Marlins if you pass on him.  He will get more than $7M from the Marlins."

Elias:  "Not sure you are reading the market right, Scott.  I like your boy, but the Royals like Lacy. "

Boras:  "You are bluffing."

Elias:  "I am looking at a top 10 rated talent with a higher slugging % in 2020 than Tork."

Boras:  "We have done our due diligence.  It is your loss if you pass on Martin."

Elias:  "Slot for Toronto at 1:5: is $6.2M, Scott.  I am offering $7.0.  Final offer."

Boras:  "Martin is the best hitter in the draft.  He will not get to 5."

Elias:  "Enjoy the draft, Scott."

The problem with this theory is that Kjerstad wasn't the next guy on the board for anyone.  He was the fifteenth.  So if Boras is being impossible with Martin, you take Lacy or Meyer or Hancock.  Or someone. Not a corner outfielder with K rate issues projected for the middle of the first round. 

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Said Elias of Kjerstad: “We absolutely love his bat. He is the best left-handed hitter in the country this year. He plays a good right field. He’s a big guy with gigantic power and it’s power to all fields. We think he’s a middle of the order bat. Great kid. A tremendous addition to our farm system.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/06/new-oriole-heston-kjerstad-is-confident-in-himself-and-his-new-club.html

He did hit .448/.513/.791 this season.   Not too shabby, though I’m sure there were a lot of cupcake games on the early schedule.    

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The MLB Network comp was Kyle Schwarber. Kyle Schwarber isn't even an everyday baseball player, so I really hope the team sees something there that the rest of the world does not. 

I don't remember who it was, but they also mentioned Todd Helton. Perhaps that's based on the swing? 

 

Helton kept his hands high, but they both have that high leg kick. 

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11 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I think folks need to take a step back and really get a grip on how incomplete these draft profiles are because of the missed playing time.  If you believe Kjerstad made real improvements at the plate and in 2020 was on his way to cutting down his K rate 40% and was among the D1 Power 5 leaders in slugging, then his selection becomes very defensible.

We do have an enormous sum of $ for overslot signings the rest of the draft.  Not sure if we can get both Ginn and a top HS pitcher, but we should have the $ for both.  We could walk away from the draft with four guys signed over $2.0M.

Do these slot savings get added to the pool of money we get to sign undrafted players?  Maybe that's Eilas's strategy.  Pay some of these HS kids that were thinking of taking their chances at three years of college. 

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw, it's just Heyman being Boras' lackey again.  Boras is probably peeved Martin dropped.

Heyman isn't even correct.  There were plenty of rumors circulating before the draft that the O's were considering Kjerstad and other underslot players.  

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2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

HS RHP's Jared Kelley  and Nick Bitsko, as well as HS LHP Dax Fulton are all still on the board. Perhaps Elias has them in mind? Fulton had been speculated to us at 30 for some time. Kelly is ranked 12th at MLB.com, with Bitsko 14th and Fulton 43rd.

 

The Rays just took Bitsko at 24. Ugh.

Tampa Bay always needs pitching… Always…

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8 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Do these slot savings get added to the pool of money we get to sign undrafted players?  Maybe that's Eilas's strategy.  Pay some of these HS kids that were thinking of taking there chances at three years of college. 

Not this year.  The slot savings have to be spent in the first five rounds.

I think HK will sign for around $5M-$5.5M.  I think the Os have ballpark $2M-$2.5M in overslot signings at least to play with. We could take a player with a $2.5M-$3.0M tag with our second round pick and then another player to a $2.0M tag with our third rounder.

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4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 

Ordinarily, it would not be a good idea to put a lot of weight on a 16 game sample when it suggests a significantly higher level of ability than a player's previous body of work.  But if Mejdal and company broke down the film were able to to convince themselves that Kjerstad's improvement in results corresponded to an observable improvement in his approach and/or mechanics between seasons, then this could be the kind of information edge that could justify going against the grain and picking him at 1:2.  We'll see.  I hope they are right.

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24 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

The problem with this theory is that Kjerstad wasn't the next guy on the board for anyone.  He was the fifteenth.  So if Boras is being impossible with Martin, you take Lacy or Meyer or Hancock.  Or someone. Not a corner outfielder with K rate issues projected for the middle of the first round. 

I would bet every dollar I have that Kjerstad was closer to 2 on the Orioles board than 15th. 

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33 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

The problem with this theory is that Kjerstad wasn't the next guy on the board for anyone.  He was the fifteenth. 

Wow. Since you obviously know what everyone’s board looks like, please post them all here. We’d all be very interested. 

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