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2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I mean, shouldn't the #2 pick be a sexy pick? Especially for an organization in desperate need of future potential superstars. If it was me, I'd want to draft a potentially great player with a pick that high, not someone who projects to be average and who will probably be a part time DH by the time he's 30. The thing that has really handcuffed the Orioles in recent years is that they haven't had overly athletic players. It's tied their hands quite a bit in terms of lineup and roster flexibility and hindered their defense. If it was me, athleticism would probably be one of the top traits I looked for in young players. Martin seems like he would have checked the athletic quite a bit more than Kjerstad. 

I love this hyperbole. If the O's were drafting 7-10 and they took Kjerstad there, we would be very happy to have a guy with big power potential who could mash onto the flag court for the next decade. But we took him underslot so now he's a DH by the time he's 30 and after being just a guy. 

I'm also disappointed that we didn't take someone who scouting pubs think have a higher ceiling, but Kjerstad isn't a late first round low upside pick. Kjerstad is ranked higher in this draft class than DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez were in their respective classes and both are now Top 50 prospects who we think could be No. 2 starters with TOR upside. I'd have rather had Martin or Lacy or Veen, but that doesn't diminish Kjerstad's potential. 

Edited by MachoMachadoMan
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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Yeah, I don't get the Helton comparison at all. Helton's power was largely due to Coor's Field. If he had played anywhere else I think I think he would have more of a .300 / 20 HR type of player. Also, Helton was a gold glover at his position. I don't think anyone is projecting that for Kjerstad. Schwarber's a much better comp IMO. 

He has better foot speed and is a better defender than Schwarber, even if that's not his calling card.

Schwarber offensively would be a beast if he could hit LHP, so I'll happily take the bat profile.

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19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say Davis but I don't think Kjerstad will walk that much.

Kjerstad turned 21 this year. Davis in his age 21 year (about 3/4 at high A and 1/4 at AA) had a 6% walk rate and 28% K rate, at age 22 in AA and AAA it was 8% and 22% plus 6% and 28% in the majors. He didn't really learn to walk at an above average rate till 2013. Shrug. 

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This is the perfect example of why trading of draft picks should be allowed.  Not for players either, just picks for picks.  The O's could have gotten the player they really wanted between pick 5 and 9 most likely but they had absolutely no choice other than to take him number 2.  The NFL draft trade chart shows that the #2 pick is worth 2,600 value points.  The Blue Jays pick is worth 1,700 value points.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick (42 overall) is worth 480 value points.  The O's would have had more coming to them.  The Pirates may have been a better target as the value trade would have been O's #2 overall for Pirates #7, #31 and #44 picks.

Now I understand the MLB trade value chart may look very different than the NFL trade value chart, but you have to think that the #2 overall pick is still worth that other teams high 1st round pick and at least an early pick (Compensatory or 2nd round) and another late or future pick. If you looked at just the MLB Slot Value, the #2 pick would have been worth the Pirates 1st round and Compensatory pick or their 1st round pick, 2nd round pick and 5th round pick.

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1 minute ago, NJOriolesFan said:

This is the perfect example of why trading of draft picks should be allowed.  Not for players either, just picks for picks.  The O's could have gotten the player they really wanted between pick 5 and 9 most likely but they had absolutely no choice other than to take him number 2.  The NFL draft trade chart shows that the #2 pick is worth 2,600 value points.  The Blue Jays pick is worth 1,700 value points.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick (42 overall) is worth 480 value points.  The O's would have had more coming to them.  The Pirates may have been a better target as the value trade would have been O's #2 overall for Pirates #7, #31 and #44 picks.

Now I understand the MLB trade value chart may look very different than the NFL trade value chart, but you have to think that the #2 overall pick is still worth that other teams high 1st round pick and at least an early pick (Compensatory or 2nd round) and another late or future pick. If you looked at just the MLB Slot Value, the #2 pick would have been worth the Pirates 1st round and Compensatory pick or their 1st round pick, 2nd round pick and 5th round pick.

Agree 100%. Even if they had just swapped picks with the Blue Jays (and gotten something else) I would have been much happier. As it stands, the Orioles don't seem like a team that has the luxury of passing on the consensus best player available. 

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7 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

This is the perfect example of why trading of draft picks should be allowed.  Not for players either, just picks for picks.  The O's could have gotten the player they really wanted between pick 5 and 9 most likely but they had absolutely no choice other than to take him number 2.  The NFL draft trade chart shows that the #2 pick is worth 2,600 value points.  The Blue Jays pick is worth 1,700 value points.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick (42 overall) is worth 480 value points.  The O's would have had more coming to them.  The Pirates may have been a better target as the value trade would have been O's #2 overall for Pirates #7, #31 and #44 picks.

Now I understand the MLB trade value chart may look very different than the NFL trade value chart, but you have to think that the #2 overall pick is still worth that other teams high 1st round pick and at least an early pick (Compensatory or 2nd round) and another late or future pick. If you looked at just the MLB Slot Value, the #2 pick would have been worth the Pirates 1st round and Compensatory pick or their 1st round pick, 2nd round pick and 5th round pick.

Good point! The MLB draft is still a disaster. The NBA and NFL do it so much better. I like the idea of way less rounds. 

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So personally. I like the pick. I think the Orioles obviously has issues with Martin. That is obvious. I do not think it was the money. I think there were some red flags.  And the pitchers were not what they were looking for. So... who else was there at 2. Obviously, I would have liked trade down if Martin was not your guy. But not possible. We’ll see how it all plays out over time. 

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11 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

This is the perfect example of why trading of draft picks should be allowed.  Not for players either, just picks for picks.  The O's could have gotten the player they really wanted between pick 5 and 9 most likely but they had absolutely no choice other than to take him number 2.  The NFL draft trade chart shows that the #2 pick is worth 2,600 value points.  The Blue Jays pick is worth 1,700 value points.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick (42 overall) is worth 480 value points.  The O's would have had more coming to them.  The Pirates may have been a better target as the value trade would have been O's #2 overall for Pirates #7, #31 and #44 picks.

Now I understand the MLB trade value chart may look very different than the NFL trade value chart, but you have to think that the #2 overall pick is still worth that other teams high 1st round pick and at least an early pick (Compensatory or 2nd round) and another late or future pick. If you looked at just the MLB Slot Value, the #2 pick would have been worth the Pirates 1st round and Compensatory pick or their 1st round pick, 2nd round pick and 5th round pick.

You are comparing sports where in one most picks in the first 3 rounds play at the top level in their rookie seasons, against the other, where most players in the first 3 rounds never make the major leagues.

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6 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

So personally. I like the pick. I think the Orioles obviously has issues with Martin. That is obvious. I do not think it was the money. I think there were some red flags.  And the pitchers were not what they were looking for. So... who else was there at 2. Obviously, I would have liked trade down if Martin was not your guy. But not possible. We’ll see how it all plays out over time. 

I'm late to this thread, but has anyone discussed Martin's injury history? Why did he miss two games in the shortened season?

Also, arm issues in HS:

Defensively, Martin has played a few different positions thanks to Vanderbilt being stacked, but he typically plays SS/3B, where he’s drawn praise from scouts for his range and footwork, but some have questioned his arm strength (he was also plagued by arm injuries in HS) and wonder what his eventual defensive home will be.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/7/15/20694381/2020-mariners-draft-preview-3b-util-austin-martin

 

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3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I don't see an issue there.  Mancini's a 1st baseman/DH, and Kjerstad's a RFer.  There's zero reasons they can't play together as long as Mancini has his health, and Kjretad develops as they expect.  Kjerstad's regarded as a solid if unspectacular defender.    

Yes that’s correct. My point was getting a “strong middle of the order bat” when we already have one, but we have so many other needs.

I am not arguing the pick, because I haven’t been following and haven’t an opinion either way. But it seems as if we drafted something we already have, and could have drafted something we need more.

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1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

What's a good potential outcome for Kjerstad? Left handed version of Mark Trumbo?

BITE YOUR TONGUE.

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32 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

How about Dave Parker?

Every time someone mentions Dave Parker, I think of the 79 All-Star game. I would love to have Dave Parker on my team

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34 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

How about Dave Parker?

The problem with Parker as a comp is his career high in strike outs was 126.  He only had five seasons with 100+ K's.

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For a really long time I've wanted the Os to make projection/model based decisions and I feel like that's exactly what they did here and everyone is upset. I'm willing to be that their projections of Kjerstad's bat exceed the value of Martin's and like many other club's/scouts, they don't think he'll be able to stick in CF or play plus in the middle of the infield. Seems clear with this pick and Westburg that Elias and Sig have a specific plan but it's different than that of the prognosticators. Excited to see how day two pans out.

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