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Where do Kjerstad/Westburg fit on the 2023/24 team

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1 minute ago, Spl51 said:

HAHA I guess this conversation is done because you can't even read. You seem truly obsessed with this decision based on the amount of time and energy you have spent writing about this.

Martin was clearly #2 and even ranked #1 on some boards. He was clearly the BPA.....I buy that he was selected because he will sign for less. I don’t buy “that their were virtual ties”. But you can if you want.

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10 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Any news on the O's signing their first 4 picks?  I am anxious about progress.  When is the deadline for them to sign?

Nothing yet..... They have until next year.

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13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Martin was clearly #2 and even ranked #1 on some boards. He was clearly the BPA.....I buy that he was selected because he will sign for less. I don’t buy “that their were virtual ties”. But you can if you want.

You think a group of guys can all be rated at 50 and still have substantially different likely future values?

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think a group of guys can all be rated at 50 and still have substantially different likely future values?

Yes.... Most of the guys that have future 50 grades will never make it. 
 

According to MLB, the Orioles top 11 guys have a overall grade of 50. At least half of them will likely not end up being that good.

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6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yes.... Most of the guys that have future 50 grades will never make it. 
 

According to MLB, the Orioles top 11 guys have a overall grade of 50. At least half of them will likely not end up being that good.

But if one of them had a substantially better shot at making it they'd be graded higher right?

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I've seen all the data on the #2 guy produces this much WAR, the #4 guy has this chance of making the majors.

All of that is somewhat useful and mildly interesting. 

I wonder if being selected say five slots higher has any meaning when the overall scouting grade is the same?

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27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But if one of them had a substantially better shot at making it they'd be graded higher right?

Well 1-5 actually had better than 50 ratings. Again my problem is with not selecting the BPA. I don’t think Kjerstad was the BPA and don’t believe Elias would try to convince us that he was.

I think Martin has a higher probability than Kjerstad to have a better career. If the Orioles thought I was wrong and drafted Kjerstad because their scouts were higher on him fine.  But the reality is that they signed the highest guy that was willing to sign at their projected slot. They overpaid their 4th and 5th rounders 1 million or so overslot

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've seen all the data on the #2 guy produces this much WAR, the #4 guy has this chance of making the majors.

All of that is somewhat useful and mildly interesting. 

I wonder if being selected say five slots higher has any meaning when the overall scouting grade is the same?

It’s my opinion that they drafted a lower ranked guy to save money. If you don’t believe they did that we can agree to disagree.id be shocked if the two guys mentioned had the same overall grade..

 

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Martin will be a way better player at the MLB level than Kjerstad or the bonus babbles we selected in the 4th and 5th round

What makes you so sure?     I think the wisdom of Elias’ strategy basically comes down to your opinion of Martin and Kjerstad.  If you believe Martin was the clear no. 2 player (or even no. 1), and that Kjerstad was somewhere in the 7-10 range, then it’s pretty hard to conclude that Elias’ strategy made sense.     I don’t think having two extra second rounders can make up that difference.    But if you believe there was a pretty flat tier between 2 and 7, and that Martin and Kjerstad were both in there with Martin maybe just a smidge higher, then having the two extra second rounders could well be very worthwhile.     That’s what Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs thinks.    

I would have been more comfortable with picking Martin, but I have an open mind about it.      It’s not like I’m a professional scout or have spent hours watching these guys play.    So, I’ll just cross my fingers that Elias is proven correct.    
 

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The rumor on draft night was that Boras  was asking #1 money for Austin Martin.  And that dropped him to be taken #5.   That is (#1) 8.4m instead of (#2) 7.8m  or 600K over slot.   That would be money taken away from signing the O's other 5 picks.   Not only that.  Its a pretty good bet the Boras will wait until the last minute to sign Martin which could mess up the ability to sign other O's draft picks.    If that is true,  Elias said not thanks as did the #3 and #4  draft teams.   It will be interesting to see what Martin signs for.  Any one want to bet its higher than the 6.1m slotted for the #5 pick?

So if Elias did not want to go over slot for Martin he also made it pretty clear he did not want to draft a pitcher at #2.   Not Lacy (my pick), Meyers, Hancock or Detmers.    Elias also did not want the risk of a high school player.  So no Hassell or Veen.

That leaves Gonzalez from New Mexico State.  Same college as last year's draft pick Joey Ortiz.  That didn't work to well in his first season.  The Western Conference vs the SEC is too risky at #2.  

So that leaves Elias with Kjerstad.   Lefty handed, middle of the order hitter in Camden Yards.   That is a saver pick.  Then add that he can probably be signed for 5.5m which allows Elias to go over slot elsewhere.  There is the logic for the pick.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What makes you so sure?     I think the wisdom of Elias’ strategy basically comes down to your opinion of Martin and Kjerstad.  If you believe Martin was the clear no. 2 player (or even no. 1), and that Kjerstad was somewhere in the 7-10 range, then it’s pretty hard to conclude that Elias’ strategy made sense.     I don’t think having two extra second rounders can make up that difference.    But if you believe there was a pretty flat tier between 2 and 7, and that Martin and Kjerstad were both in there with Martin maybe just a smidge higher, then having the two extra second rounders could well be very worthwhile.     That’s what Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs thinks.    

I would have been more comfortable with picking Martin, but I have an open mind about it.      It’s not like I’m a professional scout or have spent hours watching these guys play.    So, I’ll just cross my fingers that Elias is proven correct.    
 

You are offering a perfectly reasonable take to an unreasonable person who has his heals dug in.

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Kjerstad speaks:

——

Heston Kjerstad wants to prove people wrong. The 21-year-old outfielder was selected second overall by the Baltimore Orioles in this year’s amateur draft, and many believe that under-slot signability, rather than merit, drove that decision. It’s an understandable opinion. Eric Longehagen’s mock draft had Kjerstad going 12th overall, while the most-bullish of other mocks had him no higher than eighth.

Not surprisingly, there’s a chip on Kjerstad’s shoulder. Asked about his No.2-worthiness in a draft-night conference call, the University of Arkansas product presented as both confident and defiant.

“I have something to prove every time I go out there,” expressed Kjerstad. “When I went to Arkansas there were a lot of people who thought I shouldn’t have been there. When I started as a freshman, they thought I shouldn’t have started as freshman. I proved them wrong. Same in my sophomore year. I’m going to keep doing my thing, and I’m sure I’ll slowly change the minds of people who don’t realize why my name was called so early.”

His confidence level was in peak form when asked what kind of player Orioles fans can expect to see.

“I’m going to be an impact player, for sure,” said Kjerstad, who despite the bravado often came across as humble during the call. “I bring a left-handed bat to the lineup that has power to all parts of the field. I also bring a good glove to the outfield. Wherever they put me, I’ll be a solid defender.”

It’s now up to Kjerstad to prove that he was worthy of a No. 2-overall selection. He’s already shown an ability to defend the fact that he was taken that high.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jose-de-leon-is-in-cincinnati-with-a-new-arm/

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It’s interesting reading the debate over where Kjerstad should have ranked in this year’s draft. If you count all of 2019 plus a month of 2020 then 7th to 10th sounds about right. If you put more weight on his most recent performance then he ranks a little higher, and if you only look at his recent performance he may be near the top. It all depends.
 
I have a poor memory for such things, but looking back to the very start of the 2019 college and prep seasons where did Adley Rutschman rank? Was he considered The Guy from the get go or did he raise his draft stock by killing it during Oregon’s 2019 season? If that season had ended after only a month would Rutschman have still been the consensus #1 pick? Were there any other guys who were considered mid-range prospects who shot up the 2019 draft boards based primarily on their play last summer? I have to think there were.

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15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Hobgood was the 2009 draft. The Sun had the Orioles rumored to be deciding between Wheeler and Ackley. Had they taken Wheeler who they gifted to the Giants he and his 3-77 would be a rotation anchor. If the chose Ackley hw would’ve given them 7.7 war of MLB production. Instead they went cheap and we all know the outcome.

Ackley was the second pick in the draft.

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2 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:
It’s interesting reading the debate over where Kjerstad should have ranked in this year’s draft. If you count all of 2019 plus a month of 2020 then 7th to 10th sounds about right. If you put more weight on his most recent performance then he ranks a little higher, and if you only look at his recent performance he may be near the top. It all depends.
 
I have a poor memory for such things, but looking back to the very start of the 2019 college and prep seasons where did Adley Rutschman rank? Was he considered The Guy from the get go or did he raise his draft stock by killing it during Oregon’s 2019 season? If that season had ended after only a month would Rutschman have still been the consensus #1 pick? Were there any other guys who were considered mid-range prospects who shot up the 2019 draft boards based primarily on their play last summer? I have to think there were.

Rutschman was considered no. 1 by many evaluators going in to the 2019 season, but separated himself during that season.   So, his stock already was very high, and he raised it higher.    

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