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2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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2 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I've ready plenty of them and seen lots of video.  I don't doubt there are 70s out there but 60-65 seems like more of the consensus.  I question how much the hit tool ultimately ends up playing if he doesn't end up hitting for much power.  I like him as a prospect but I don't think he's anywhere close to a generational or franchise altering type of prospect some are making him out to be.  

Your Wrong!

I dont subscribe to Baseball America.... But

 

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May 19, 2020 - Austin Martin, OF ... Some scouts go as high as 70 on Martin's hit tool, while his athleticism could allow him to settle in ... Hendrick won the home run derby at the Under Armour High School All-American Game last summer at ...

 

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he is why was a right handed 1B ranked above him?

Right.  Also, he probably was the "best pure hitter in the draft".  That doesn't make him an elite or generational prospect.  It just means he had the best of one tool in a draft that was weak at the top.  Kjerstad also probably was the best left-handed power in the draft.  Some people value different tools differently.  

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Your Wrong!

I dont subscribe to Baseball America.... But

 

 

"Some scouts go as high as 70"...how is that different than me saying I don't doubt there are 70 grades?  Also that quote implies those 70 grades are outliers. 

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4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No I'm not

Best Pure Hitter in the draft ... Every scouting report I read says the same thing ...Over and Over

Best hitter in the draft does not equal best player in the draft.

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Just now, lovetoaster said:

Best hitter in the draft does not equal best player in the draft.

He was rated by a number of venues as the best player available.

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1 minute ago, Big Mac said:

"Some scouts go as high as 70"...how is that different than me saying I don't doubt there are 70 grades?  Also that quote implies those 70 grades are outliers. 

Not really .... Some means that others had a different grade! I challenge you to find one lower than 60 and bet the average is certainly 65.

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The below scouting report sound familiar? Any guesses?

Hitting ability: one of the best pure hitters in college, with great bat control and plus bat speed. He stays in the zone a long time, hits the ball where it's pitched and stays back on soft stuff.
Power: There's a debate over how much power he will have. He should run into some home runs and might have average power as a pro.
Running speed: He's a plus runner and is almost deceptive with a nice, easy stride.
Base running: He is an excellent baserunner.

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3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not really .... Some means that others had a different grade! I challenge you to find one lower than 60 and bet the average is certainly 65.

I don't think there are any lower than 60, I bet the average is likely 65.  Doesn't really matter because we are splitting hairs at that point.  I don't believe the hit tool is a 70 and I am pretty confident the Orioles don't either. 

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We can agree with what Elias did in the draft or not but I think one thing is clear:

Mike Elias had a plan prior to the draft and he executed it.

He wanted to go under slot with the #2 pick and he did it.   He wanted to get high school talent in rounds 4 and 5 that he considered (at least in Mayo's case) as 2nd round talent and he got him.  (I don't know about Baumler yet. Let see what he signs for.)

Elias had apparently negotiated with Mayo before the draft because he is already signed for 1.75M.   

Elias kind of worked this draft backward in some sense.   He knew how much money he needed to sign draftee's 4 and 5.   He probably felt there were 5 to 10 players that he could pick with #2 and he picked the one with the best ability that also gave him the ability to go under slot later in the draft.  

This was not picking the best player available at each draft spot.   This was the best player available that allowed him to execute his plan.   That plan was to get as many talented players as he could.

Elias has been asked about picking Westburg at #30.  Its apparent that he values the guy as a first rounder IMO.    

Its also seems that he values position players over pitchers at this point in the O's rebuild. (Not that I agree with him but so what)

So I think Elias believes he got 2 first rounder in Kjerstad and Westburg.  And at least 2 second round talents in Haskin and Mayo.   We should wait to see how much and when Baumler signs for to see how much Elias values him.

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MLB draft: Austin Martin is 2020's top prospect; his Vanderbilt coach explains how he could become a star

 

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Martin, a top-of-the-order hitter and versatile defender, might be the most intriguing player in the class. He has an impressive feel for contact and for the strike zone, finishing his Commodores career with a .368 batting average and more walks than strikeouts. (He was the toughest batter to strike out in the power conferences.) Though he homered just 14 times, his exit velocities suggest there's plus power potential under the surface, something he could achieve thanks to his offensive aptitude and a swing that already features loft. In short, Martin fits the profile of others who have added power to their games in recent years.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-austin-martin-is-2020s-top-prospect-his-vanderbilt-coach-explains-how-he-could-become-a-star/

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

We can agree with what Elias did in the draft or not but I think one thing is clear:

Mike Elias had a plan prior to the draft and he executed it.

He wanted to go under slot with the #2 pick and he did it.   He wanted to get high school talent in rounds 4 and 5 that he considered (at least in Mayo's case) as 2nd round talent and he got him.  (I don't know about Baumler yet. Let see what he signs for.)

Elias had apparent negotiated with Mayo before the draft because he is already signed for 1.75M.   

Elias kind of worked this draft backward in some sense.   He knew how much money he needed to sign draftee's 4 and 5.   He probably felt their were 5 to 10 players that he could pick with #2 and he picked the one with the best ability that also gave him the ability to go under slot later in the draft.  

This was not picking the best player available at each draft spot.   This was the best player available that allowed him to execute his plan.   That plan was to get as many talented players as he could.

Elias has been asked about picking Westburg at #30.  Its apparent that he values the guy as a first rounder IMO.    

Its also seems that he values position players over pitchers at this point in the O's rebuild. (Not that I agree with him but so what)

So I think Elias believes he got 2 first rounder in Kjerstad and Westburg.  And at least 2 second round talents in Haskin and Mayo.   We should wait to see how much and when Baumler signs for to see how much Elias values him.

While all this is true we also know that he was targeting a pitcher at 30 that he didn't get.  So at least part of his plan fell through.

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6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He was rated by a number of venues as the best player available.

Yes, by some. But the results of the actual draft tell me otherwise. Torkelson would not have fallen to five. 

You can talk about all of the predraft rankings and anonymous scouts you want. But the actual results tell me that things aren't as clear cut as you're making them out to be. 

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50 minutes ago, linedrive said:

I desperately want to love this draft, but I'm sold on the idea that you can't win a Championship without elite pitching. We need to draft guys like a Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Chris Carpenter in the first round. Teams like the Nationals, Dodgers and Royals all drafted four pitchers this draft, and the Braves, who only had four picks, took three. In my opinion, that's what we should be doing. Sure, we can get to the playoffs by knocking the ball out of the park, but we're not going to go deep into the playoffs or win a World Series without 2 or 3 top starters to carry us to the end. If we don't draft them, where are we going to get them??? Do we have deep enough pockets to outbid NY, LA, Boston, etc.?

This draft was okay, but if Baumler doesn't pan out, I don't like our chances of winning a Championship this decade. 

Baumler must be really, really, really good!

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11 minutes ago, lovetoaster said:

Yes, by some. But the results of the actual draft tell me otherwise. Torkelson would not have fallen to five. 

You can talk about all of the predraft rankings and anonymous scouts you want. But the actual results tell me that things aren't as clear cut as you're making them out to be. 

Fact: The Orioles and the Marlins went Underslot! They went with #9 and #10 rated.

Fact: Torkelson was going #1 or #2 and Did!

Fact: The Royals went with the top pitcher in the draft.

The actual results mean little in terms of talent because it was weighted by financial implications that made the teams take someone other than the BPA

Pick                        Rank

#1                              #1

#2                              #10

#3                              #9

#4                              #3

#5                              #2

#6                              #4

#7                              #5

 

After the obvious under slots the outcome pretty much went in the order they should have

 

 

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