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Tony-OH

2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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On 6/12/2020 at 10:17 AM, Roll Tide said:

I think its a bad strategy to pass on the BPA or try to add value later. They highest percentage of wins in the prospect game are in round one. Why hurt that percentage in hopes of getting potential value later....Just my 2 cents

LOL, "your two cents"...

I'm pretty sure you are at about 17,846 cents right now.

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https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2020/6/15/prospects-live-in-depth-mlb-draft-grades

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One little tidbit, I’ve been told by a source close to the Orioles organization that Bryce Jarvis was the arm the Orioles hoped fell to 30, and that they had no interest in Bitsko. Take that for what it’s worth but it’s an interesting tidbit. 

Interesting. 

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2 hours ago, Spl51 said:

This makes sense to me, because Jarvis went to Driveline in the off-season and upgraded his fastball velocity and quality of his off speed pitches.  He has the growth mindset that the Orioles front office wants in their players, and Chris Holt has connections with Driveline, so he probably had good inside info on Jarvis’ makeup and insight on the improvements he made.  Also, Jarvis got off to a great start this year, and the draft model probably projected him to have a great season if it were to have been played in its entirety.  When you add in that Jarvis’ father pitched in the big leagues, giving him good bloodlines, it all makes sense why the Orioles would have had Bryce ranked highly on their board.  I think Jarvis & Jared Shuster from Wake Forest were 2 of the pitchers the Orioles were targeting at 30 (Bobby Miller could have been as well), as Elias indicated pitchers that they liked got picked before they made their second pick of the draft.  And by the time it got to pick 30, Westburg was clearly the highest rated player on their board.

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On 6/12/2020 at 8:24 PM, Tony-OH said:

We have a winner... Martin has a good hit tool, but his average power limits his ceiling in the power game that is played today. 

This is why I don't think he's a prospect in the category of Machado or Rendon.  Rendon had much better power numbers and wasn't considered a slugger - just a good power potential guy.  I would have picked Lacy over Martin.  

I liked every pick other than the 2 shortstops - though both seem like excellent athletes.  If one of them develops real well, then it's a win.    

   

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On 6/12/2020 at 8:21 PM, Tony-OH said:

My educated guess is Elias hopes to build up a stable of position players and then trade for starting pitching that is either ready or nearly ready. Plus, the strength of this organization is in it's pitching prospects with Rodriguez and Hall potential TORs.

I'd like to think you're right, but what did the Manny Machado trade get us? I know it's still early, but did we get anyone who could be a top of the rotation starter? Kremer? If not, what would it take to get back a #1 starter? How much would we have to give up? I'd like to be optimistic, but It's hard to imagine a scenario where we obtain a starter that could bring us a Championship.

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1 hour ago, linedrive said:

I'd like to think you're right, but what did the Manny Machado trade get us? I know it's still early, but did we get anyone who could be a top of the rotation starter? Kremer? If not, what would it take to get back a #1 starter? How much would we have to give up? I'd like to be optimistic, but It's hard to imagine a scenario where we obtain a starter that could bring us a Championship.

Dave Van Horn,  Kjerstad's head coach at Arkansas, says that Asa Lacy could have gone 1:1.    He is that good.  

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On 6/15/2020 at 6:40 AM, O's84 said:

Jeez, this thread reminded me of the days when JTrea would take on the entire board.

For seven days straight with no sleep. 

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2 hours ago, linedrive said:

I'd like to think you're right, but what did the Manny Machado trade get us? I know it's still early, but did we get anyone who could be a top of the rotation starter? Kremer? If not, what would it take to get back a #1 starter? How much would we have to give up? I'd like to be optimistic, but It's hard to imagine a scenario where we obtain a starter that could bring us a Championship.

The Machado trade didn’t bring back peak value, to be fair. I would anticipate trades similar to the ones the Astros have made over the last few years, giving up 3-4 guys in their top 30 prospects for top pitching. 

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Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

 

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41 minutes ago, survivedc said:

The Machado trade didn’t bring back peak value, to be fair. I would anticipate trades similar to the ones the Astros have made over the last few years, giving up 3-4 guys in their top 30 prospects for top pitching. 

3 or 4 years ago we couldn't have done that, but I think we are getting closer. Hopefully teams who have a #1 starter we covet will agree. 

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57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

Cole did finish 4th in the Cy Young award voting in 2015, though he wasn’t as good in 2016-17 before the trade.   

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