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2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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2 hours ago, linedrive said:

I'd like to think you're right, but what did the Manny Machado trade get us? I know it's still early, but did we get anyone who could be a top of the rotation starter? Kremer? If not, what would it take to get back a #1 starter? How much would we have to give up? I'd like to be optimistic, but It's hard to imagine a scenario where we obtain a starter that could bring us a Championship.

The Machado trade didn’t bring back peak value, to be fair. I would anticipate trades similar to the ones the Astros have made over the last few years, giving up 3-4 guys in their top 30 prospects for top pitching. 

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Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

 

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41 minutes ago, survivedc said:

The Machado trade didn’t bring back peak value, to be fair. I would anticipate trades similar to the ones the Astros have made over the last few years, giving up 3-4 guys in their top 30 prospects for top pitching. 

3 or 4 years ago we couldn't have done that, but I think we are getting closer. Hopefully teams who have a #1 starter we covet will agree. 

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57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

Cole did finish 4th in the Cy Young award voting in 2015, though he wasn’t as good in 2016-17 before the trade.   

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.  

Verlander's 2016 was his best season in four years: 2nd in Cy Young voting, league leading 1.001 WHIP as well as 254 strikeouts, 3.04 ERA. He was pitching very well at the time of the 2017 trade; I advocated for the Orioles to trade for him at the time. One of his final starts for the Tigers he was pumping near 100 mph in the 7th on consecutive pitches! While neither 2014 or 2015 (when he was injured) were very good seasons, he had reestablished his reputation as one of the league's top starters when Houston acquired him.

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On 6/12/2020 at 9:56 AM, Roll Tide said:

Not really .... If a guy struggles against high school pitching I'm betting they struggle at college of the Milb level. IE....If a guy can't handle HS fastball he probably can't do so at AAA or the majors

That is just not true. “Struggles” against HS pitching can be due to many things. Depends on where you play HS ball. At Stoneman Douglas, which is just outside Miami, it’s about as competitive an environment as it gets in HS anywhere in the world. And teams usually do not often pitch to big hitters like Mayo.

What exactly is a “high school fastball?” The guys who hit well all summer on 86-96 mph, usually struggle to hit against slower fastballs of the average HS pitcher, which often hovers around 80 mph or less. These pitchers often throw a lot of junk out of the zone. I’ve seen Riley Greene, Jud Fabian, and many others, struggle to hit against sub-par pitching. Talented competitive kids will chase out of the zone because they are used to being, and expected to be, productive. They want to win, and they try to carry the load. Slow bats hit average HS fastballs, but cannot compete on elite travel ball or showcases. 

So, a guy who hits .500 in below average competition is a better prospect than a guy that hits .350 in Florida, Texas, Georgia or California? Yikes. HS stats are not totally meaningless, but they are a small part of the profile and need to be taken in context. 

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Jim Callis weighed in on our draft with Melewski today:

“I thought it was one of the deeper drafts, one of the best drafts,” said Callis. “If I remember correctly, we had Kjerstad ranked 10th on our draft list. I did hear a lot of Baltimore media getting asked, ‘How could they take the 10th guy at No. 2?’ Well, there was not that big of a gap between 2 and 10.

“Now, they got a great deal. They got him for over $2 million under slot, which allowed them to do some other things. Plus, this guy hit from the start in the SEC and was the best lefty power hitter in the draft on the college side. And I think 6 to 10 were jumbled up for a lot of clubs. You could argue they got the sixth-best player. Because he was going to go lower, they got a great deal. You have to get talent and they took a talented guy at 2 and poured that money into Mayo and Baumler.

“If they had taken Austin Martin at two, you look at what he got from the Blue Jays, they wouldn’t have saved the money to get those guys. All six of their picks are interesting. You don’t usually get six guys that are close to the top 100 and sign them all.”

Callis said there were things to like about each O’s selection.

“Kjerstad is the best lefty power hitter in the draft. Westburg, another SEC performer. Shortstop with power, profiles at third base if he doesn’t stick at short. Real interesting guy. Hudson Haskin, a really gifted center fielder. Didn’t fly under the radar, but in a normal year he might have gone higher. He’s a tooled-up center fielder who as a draft-eligible sophomore played a year and change. So, he wasn’t as heavily scouted as guys who had been around for three years. Anthony Servideo really came on this spring. Had a great spring. Slick fielder and showed a lot more with the bat. Coby Mayo has the power and arm strength you want at third base. And Baumler is a projectable, athletic pitcher who no one thought was going to be signable and the Orioles got him.

“These aren’t just like interesting guys that go into the top 30. They’re all guys with a good amount of upside. It was a pretty impressive haul.”

MLBPipeline.com’s new O’s top 30, rates Kjerstad No. 3, Westburg No. 7, Haskin No. 14, Baumler No. 19, Servideo No. 21 and Mayo No. 25.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/jim-callis-with-props-for-os-draft-plus-other-notes.html

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