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Tony-OH

2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha. Stats at the HS and college level do lie! 

Not really .... If a guy struggles against high school pitching I'm betting they struggle at college of the Milb level. IE....If a guy can't handle HS fastball he probably can't do so at AAA or the majors

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Money really shouldn't be a factor in taking the BPA. Passing on a the BPA in order to select a better prospect in the 4th or 5th round is counter productive since the player most likley to hit is the 1st rounder.

Unless you don't see a big difference between the two players at #2.  It's clear that Elias doesn't think he's losing much, if anything.  The Orioles quite possibly had their guy rated ahead of Hill or at least very close.

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3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not really .... If a guy struggles against high school pitching I'm betting they struggle at college of the Milb level. IE....If a guy can't handle HS fastball he probably can't do so at AAA or the majors

Sure. But success at those levels can be misleading.  Stats can and do lie.

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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Unless you don't see a big difference between the two players at #2.  It's clear that Elias doesn't think he's losing much, if anything.  The Orioles quite possibly had their guy rated ahead of Hill or at least very close.

Unless it was based more heavily on savings! I refuse to believe he took the BPA!

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Unless it was based more heavily on savings! I refuse to believe he took the BPA!

Yeah there are some calculated savings going on, but he's using the savings to sign better players later in the draft while still getting solid value for the early picks. So you're spreading your value out more evenly. 

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21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Thanks Tony .... Nice article

 

But, I think the 1st three picks are crappy! Kjerstad was a reach at #2. A wasted rare high pick! #2 and #3 project as a utility Inf and 4th OF. The high school 5th rounder is the only value pick based on rankings!

Elias crapped the bed here!

Well that is certainly your right to have that opinion, but I'm going to disagree a bit. The game has changed and power plays. Kjerstad has outstanding left-handed power and let's not act like his hit tool is awful either, it's probably above average. I don't think he's going to be Trumbo out in RF so as long as he's not awful out there, his bat should play and he has an opportunity to be an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup. Signing him allowed the Orioles to get Mayo and Baumler.

So let's just say Elias had to make a choice between Martin (who many think has to move off SS and has just average power), slot 4th and 5th round talents vs Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. He gets the left handed power he needed in the lineup (I could see him sandwiched between Rutschman and Mountcastle to give the Orioles and potent 3-4-5 and two high ceiling high schoolers. 

The more I read and watched video of Hunter Haskin, the more I kinda like him. That swing if fugly, no doubt, but the guy can rake and he's got enough speed and defensive ability to play all three outfield positions. If he can develop into 20 homer power, .280-.290/.340-.350 OBP guy, he's a solid major league starting outfielder, particularly in center field.

His arm has accuracy issues, but it's solid to even above average according to most sources but I don't think the arm will end up a detriment or an asset.

Now, the only pick I'm not initially thrilled with is the
Jordan Westburg selection. I would have preferred the Orioles had gone with a college arm at this point, but Elias/Sig like those big up the middle guys. Westburg does have some talent, but he has to stick at shortstop to get the most value as I don't think his hit tool or average power will make him a great play at 3B ultimately. Now if he ends up at 2nd base as a Jonathan Schoop like second baseman, there still could be some value but I would not be surprised if he's a high strikeout, low walk guy. 

 

 

 

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So which two guys, in the top 30 overall, are we throwing out to justify Baumler and Mayo as “first round talents”. 
 

Why didn’t we pick them with our comp pick and 2nd round pick if we had them so highly rated?  Weren’t we scared we were going to miss out on such highly rated talent?

I like the strategy for this draft if we weren’t picking top 2. Just too risky with the 2nd pick in the draft.

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure. But success at those levels can be misleading.  Stats can and do lie.

Not all guys can handle the increased skill level as they advance and the competition gets stronger. But failure at lower levels usually doesnt lie!

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

Not all guys can handle the increased skill level as they advance and the competition gets stronger. But failure at lower levels usually doesnt lie!

We agree. What's the problem? lol

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Unless it was based more heavily on savings! I refuse to believe he took the BPA!

The argument is that the money saved allowed us to take “better” players with our other 4 selections. That’s just real risky and real subjective as well. Especially with not a lot of data because of the short season/no season. 

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23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think it's just words. I think Hoosiers made a logical and reasonable argument that Mayo and Baumler are probably 2nd round talents based on the money they did get versus where they were actually drafted.  They have upside, no doubt.

Actually, lets separate talent verses round. They may have 1st round talent but no team, including the Orioles, thought they were worth drafting in the first round. To say the Orioles got 3 1st rounders is disingenuous. 

Disingenuous - not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does.

Well that's your opinion, but I take exception to you using the word disingenuous to describe my thoughts on this. Whether they get second round money or not, there were some who thought they have 1st round type of talent and had the high school season played out, they might have been 1st rounders. I think what people are forgetting is that many high schoolers were really hurt by no season or a very limited season because they did not have that opportunity to break out. If a scout think a guy has first round talent and just wants more game action to decide, but then he has no game action to really add to the evaluation, that creates risk. That risk drops guys down when less risky players are available. So they very may have 1st round talent, but may get 2nd round money due to the risk factor because of the lost season.

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I appreciate that all of these draftees have talent, and also the Elias has forgotten more about baseball than I will ever know.

That said, in no Universe did we draft 3 first round talents.  By ANY metric.  Kjerstad obviously is a first round talent, but was a reach in almost every indepent talent evaluators opinion.  Who else would you consider first round talent?

Westburg was ranked 37th by mlb pipeline, haskin 74th, servideo 110th, mayo 132nd and Baumler 102nd.   One could argue that MAYBE Westburg was a 1st round talent, but the rest of them not even close. 

 

 

Edited by kirchhausen
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Ok, Tony. I acknowledge they may have first round talent. You could argue there are boom or bust type guys taken every year in rounds 2-5 who have first round talent.  No team was willing to draft either guy in the first round and pay them first round money.  

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10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well that is certainly your right to have that opinion, but I'm going to disagree a bit. The game has changed and power plays. Kjerstad has outstanding left-handed power and let's not act like his hit tool is awful either, it's probably above average. I don't think he's going to be Trumbo out in RF so as long as he's not awful out there, his bat should play and he has an opportunity to be an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup. Signing him allowed the Orioles to get Mayo and Baumler.

So let's just say Elias had to make a choice between Martin (who many think has to move off SS and has just average power), slot 4th and 5th round talents vs Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. He gets the left handed power he needed in the lineup (I could see him sandwiched between Rutschman and Mountcastle to give the Orioles and potent 3-4-5 and two high ceiling high schoolers. 

The more I read and watched video of Hunter Haskin, the more I kinda like him. That swing if fugly, no doubt, but the guy can rake and he's got enough speed and defensive ability to play all three outfield positions. If he can develop into 20 homer power, .280-.290/.340-.350 OBP guy, he's a solid major league starting outfielder, particularly in center field.

His arm has accuracy issues, but it's solid to even above average according to most sources but I don't think the arm will end up a detriment or an asset.

Now, the only pick I'm not initially thrilled with is the
Jordan Westburg selection. I would have preferred the Orioles had gone with a college arm at this point, but Elias/Sig like those big up the middle guys. Westburg does have some talent, but he has to stick at shortstop to get the most value as I don't think his hit tool or average power will make him a great play at 3B ultimately. Now if he ends up at 2nd base as a Jonathan Schoop like second baseman, there still could be some value but I would not be surprised if he's a high strikeout, low walk guy. 

 

 

 

I think its a bad strategy to pass on the BPA or try to add value later. They highest percentage of wins in the prospect game are in round one. Why hurt that percentage in hopes of getting potential value later....Just my 2 cents

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