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Tony-OH

2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We agree. What's the problem? lol

So why draft a .250 hitter at the college level? He's less likely to be a better hitter in professional baseball. Sure he can be developed...But the chance of that is relatively low IMO

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7 minutes ago, 24fps said:

FWIW this is from Eric Longenhagen at Fan Graphs:

 

Great ...so they drafted 2 RF or a RF and a DH! I'm more excited now .... Rolls Eyes!

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6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Great ...so they drafted 2 RF or a RF and a DH! I'm more excited now .... Rolls Eyes!

Have you watched Kjerstad play defense? He's not a DH by any stretch. Reminds me a lot of Aaron Judge. Huge arm, seriously it's plus plus. He's surprisingly fast, but he's a big guy so his routes look a little awkward. Traditional right field profile in a really good way.

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Just now, Spl51 said:

Have you watched Kjerstad play defense? He's not a DH by any stretch. Reminds me a lot of Aaron Judge. Huge arm, seriously it's plus plus. He's surprisingly fast, but he's a big guy so his routes look a little awkward. Traditional right field profile in a really good way.

My point was they drafted 2 RFs

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17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So why draft a .250 hitter at the college level? He's less likely to be a better hitter in professional baseball. Sure he can be developed...But the chance of that is relatively low IMO

Kjerstad hit 438 this year. 343 career.

Westburg hit 317 this year, 294 last year (with OBPs over 400).

Haskin hit 333 this year, 372 last year.

Servideo hit 390 this year 287 last year.

Mayo hit 455 this year, 391 last year (high school).

What are you talking about?

Edited by makoman
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16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think its a bad strategy to pass on the BPA or try to add value later. They highest percentage of wins in the prospect game are in round one. Why hurt that percentage in hopes of getting potential value later....Just my 2 cents

I'm biased toward BPA as well - in a vacuum.  I think what we're learning is that a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff (established frameworks for deals, for example) took place beforehand that allowed for more complexity during the draft.  Personally, I'm most curious about how many players they felt out before draft day.  At least a couple of dozen would be my guess.

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35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So let's just say Elias had to make a choice between Martin (who many think has to move off SS and has just average power), slot 4th and 5th round talents vs Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. He gets the left handed power he needed in the lineup (I could see him sandwiched between Rutschman and Mountcastle to give the Orioles and potent 3-4-5 and two high ceiling high schoolers. 

 

If this is the case as the future heart of the order, who do we have in the system as the higher average/obp guys?  I'll admit I was disappointed in us not picking Martin given the painful on-base years we've had.

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3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My point was they drafted 2 RFs

So you read one Fangraphs opinion on Mayo that says he thinks Mayo ends up in RF (which, by the way, was a rather positive take on Mayo's potential), and you latch on to that because it fits your narrative.

It's just not that simple. Other reports say he has one of the best arms of the whole draft and great athleticism.. he could stick at 3rd. He's drawn comps of Austin Riley for his ceiling. Or maybe he has the tools to play an excellent RF. You don't decide to not take a guy just because you have other OF prospects. 

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Well ...You read scouting reports from the various professionals. So you below that most or all of them are wrong? Also stats don't lie! And why they are not an end all, they are a predictor of the ability to handle the levels pitching etc. A low average or OBP might be an strong indicator

Sure, agreed, but who did we draft that fits that description?

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So we got a bunch of first rounders in the 4th and 5th and 2nd rounder in the 1st. Baseball draft makes my head hurt. These guys sound exciting though. Mayo is a cool name for a ballplayer. 

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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So we got a bunch of first rounders in the 4th and 5th and 2nd rounder in the 1st. Baseball draft makes my head hurt. These guys sound exciting though. Mayo is a cool name for a ballplayer. 

I haven't seen anybody, anywhere that rates Kjerstad as a second-rounder.

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51 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So which two guys, in the top 30 overall, are we throwing out to justify Baumler and Mayo as “first round talents”. 
 

Why didn’t we pick them with our comp pick and 2nd round pick if we had them so highly rated?  Weren’t we scared we were going to miss out on such highly rated talent?

I like the strategy for this draft if we weren’t picking top 2. Just too risky with the 2nd pick in the draft.

Could be that nobody else would be able to match their numbers to which we agreed pre-draft, so you’d rather get CBA, 2nd, 3rd rounders and the two HS kids than the two HS kids, 3rd, 4th m, and 5th rounders. 

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Just now, Number5 said:

I haven't seen anybody, anywhere that rates Kjerstad as a second-rounder.

Most outlets had him between 5 and 10 IIRC. 

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20 minutes ago, makoman said:

Kjerstad hit 438 this year. 343 career.

Westburg hit 317 this year, 294 last year (with OBPs over 400).

Haskin hit 333 this year, 372 last year.

Servideo hit 390 this year 287 last year.

Mayo hit 455 this year, 391 last year (high school).

What are you talking about?

This years BA doesnt count as its a small sample size

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