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Tony-OH

2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This years BA doesnt count as its a small sample size

.294 and .287 aren’t very close to .250. That’s the difference between a starter and an all star caliber player in the bigs.

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4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Most outlets had him between 5 and 10 IIRC. 

Yes.  In fact, I was reading the morning of draft day that Kansas City was in discussions with him about the 4th pick.  It is worth noting that KC did not draft Martin when presented the opportunity to do so.

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22 minutes ago, Smilin' Joe Fission said:

If this is the case as the future heart of the order, who do we have in the system as the higher average/obp guys?  I'll admit I was disappointed in us not picking Martin given the painful on-base years we've had.

Both Rutschman and Kjerstad have a chance to be good/great OBP guys. Haskin and Servideo both are OBP guys. We don't have enough data on Henderson of Hernaiz to know yet.

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12 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Could be that nobody else would be able to match their numbers to which we agreed pre-draft, so you’d rather get CBA, 2nd, 3rd rounders and the two HS kids than the two HS kids, 3rd, 4th m, and 5th rounders. 

Nobody had the money in the 4th and 5th rounds to take them so the Orioles hoped they would slip and be available. 

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12 minutes ago, survivedc said:

.294 and .287 aren’t very close to .250. That’s the difference between a starter and an all star caliber player in the bigs.

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

And 290 hitters sophomore year turn into 340 hitters junior year if they take the next step.

Rutschman hit 234 his freshman year, he should've just quit right?

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8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are hilarious. You are so over the top that I can almost see you seething. I like your passion, but it's so misguided at times. Like your hate for the best quarterback and player in football last year. You see what you want to see, but you need to learn to be more open to other opinions and ideas and also realize you may be proven wrong and then accept that.

Let's say both Kjerstad and Mayo's bats become impact guys and they both have RF arms and speed. Do you really think that's a bad thing?

I don't care all that much about positions at this point, but want guys with value. Value that they can also trade for ready and proven pitching that will be needed for competitive World Series runs.

While we all like to envision these guys doing well at Camden Yards, they are assets to be used to win and win often. That also includes being trade bait for positions of needs when they are close.

RF indicates that the guys are limited defensively

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39 minutes ago, Smilin' Joe Fission said:

If this is the case as the future heart of the order, who do we have in the system as the higher average/obp guys?  I'll admit I was disappointed in us not picking Martin given the painful on-base years we've had.

It's a throwback to Earl Weaver's strategy of Pitching, Defense, and the 3 run Homer.   Only we've tweaked it to be  Pitching, Defense and the 1 run Homer!

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38 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

So you read one Fangraphs opinion on Mayo that says he thinks Mayo ends up in RF (which, by the way, was a rather positive take on Mayo's potential), and you latch on to that because it fits your narrative.

It's just not that simple. Other reports say he has one of the best arms of the whole draft and great athleticism.. he could stick at 3rd. He's drawn comps of Austin Riley for his ceiling. Or maybe he has the tools to play an excellent RF. You don't decide to not take a guy just because you have other OF prospects. 

The issue will be with his footwork at third base, but the hands, mobility, and arm strength all can stay at 3B. I don't see him moving off 3B anytime soon. I could see him at 3B, Henderson at SS, and Hernaiz at 2B at Delmarva next year.

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

LOL. Show your work, please.

How the hell did you come up with this equation and why aren't you working in someone's front office?

Player development isn't linear. It never is. This is why nobody can have a real discussion with you about the draft.. because you really think it's this straightforward.

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

RF indicates that the guys are limited defensively

Um, no it doesn't. It usually indicates they have strong arm and not the speed for center. Limited defensive outfielders are usually pegged LF/1B types at draft time.

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32 minutes ago, makoman said:

The problem with many of the angry hot takes is that the data we have is stale. A lot can change with these 20-21 year old kids (not to mention high schoolers) in a year and we didn't really get to see much this year. 

Austin Hays hit 269 with 3 homers and a 729 OPS his sophomore year. You think that gets him drafted? But then he hit 350 with 16 homers and a 1.060 OPS junior year. What if he'd only played 10 games that year? The baseball draft is already a big crapshoot and this one the decisionmakers had even less information than usual. We have to hope that our guys are able to identify the ones who were making that next step.

This is a great point.

 

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6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

You are being silly now. 

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