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Tony-OH

2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, so what did I say that was wrong? I said 1st round talent. I didn't say the Orioles scooped up three 1st rounders. People are losing their minds and besides, it's my opinion based on what I've read, heard and observed on video. People are free to disagree or think I'm nuts. Hell, some people think Elias is stupid. Again, seeing what's going on in this country, I'm long past arguing with people over my opinion. Feel free to respectfully disagree all you like. 

We all have no idea how these guys are going to turn out and for the people who keep pointing to "the experts" i.e. the guys doing mock drafts and lists, feel free to go back and do the research and see how often they've been wrong. Hell, go to any top 100 prospect lists done by the "experts" and see how many complete failed, including top ten prospects with years of minor league stats behind them.

The Orioles, and many other teams, have a lot of data and metrics they are using which some of the "experts" don't have access to. Elias and Sig also have a pretty good track record. So yes, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt while also looking at all the data and information I can find.

Anyone who thinks this is an absolute bust right now is ridiculously uninformed. Anyone who thinks this is an absolute fantastic draft that will change the Orioles' horizons in a couple of years is ridiculously uninformed, but the truth is, if two of these guys become above average players and at least one becomes an impact player at the major league draft, it's a damn good draft.

I know we don't have a lot to discuss and this is the only game in town, and all points of view are welcome, but some people around here need to take a deep breath and realize the major league draft is a crapshoot after the first round and even late in the first round traditionally, and that's with a full year of baseball that just occurred from the players being drafted. 

Elias decided that the value of going with Kjerstad was worth getting guys he really liked in Mayo and Baumler. Time will tell whether that was a good idea or not but no one knows right now definitively that it was or was not the right call. No one.

I agree with everything you said.  A minor quibble on calling Baumler and Mayo first round talents which suggests 1st round value to me.  I would use different words like it looks like they got second round value in the 4th and 5th rounds.

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9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

RF indicates that the guys are limited defensively

Why? Some of the greatest players in history have occupied that position. It certainly requires a huge bat.

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19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are hilarious. You are so over the top that I can almost see you seething. I like your passion, but it's so misguided at times. Like your hate for the best quarterback and player in football last year. You see what you want to see, but you need to learn to be more open to other opinions and ideas and also realize you may be proven wrong and then accept that.

This is something I've definitely learned a lot as I've gotten older, the internet is really good at amplifying and reinforcing our anger. Recognizing when your brain has basically closed you off to new perspectives is really hard, but it's really easy to see in others when you take a step back.

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1 hour ago, 24fps said:

FWIW this is from Eric Longenhagen at Fan Graphs:

 

Good to hear that an objective observer thinks we “crushed it.”   I’m interested to see how other national analysts feel.    I’m sure we’ll be seeing various opinions over the next day or two.   

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The more I read and watched video of Hunter Haskin, the more I kinda like him. That swing if fugly, no doubt, but the guy can rake and he's got enough speed and defensive ability to play all three outfield positions. If he can develop into 20 homer power, .280-.290/.340-.350 OBP guy, he's a solid major league starting outfielder, particularly in center field.


His arm has accuracy issues, but it's solid to even above average according to most sources but I don't think the arm will end up a detriment or an asset.

Add in the SB ability and you're describing Ramon Laureano. I would be happy with that. 

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25 minutes ago, makoman said:

And 290 hitters sophomore year turn into 340 hitters junior year if they take the next step.

Rutschman hit 234 his freshman year, he should've just quit right?

 

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are being silly now. 

OK .... Wink Wink

 

Taking Kjerstad over Martin was lunacy! Period! We passed on the BPA due to a strategy of hoping to hit on a 4th or 5th rounder.

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13 minutes ago, weams said:

Why? Some of the greatest players in history have occupied that position. It certainly requires a huge bat.

Sure .... But why draft 2?

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30 minutes ago, weams said:

Why? Some of the greatest players in history have occupied that position. It certainly requires a huge bat.

Didn't you hear? That Ichiro guy was limited defensively. And don't get me started on Frank Robinson and Roberto Clemente. 

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Devil's advocate alert! Who, besides the Orioles described Baumler as a 1st round talent?  Where does that description come from?  

He has more talent than Matt Hobgood or Chris Smith.  :old5fan:

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22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

 

Taking Kjerstad over Martin was lunacy! Period! We passed on the BPA due to a strategy of hoping to hit on a 4th or 5th rounder.

And...we did.

I get the strategy, I don't really mind it, in fact it's pretty good.  I also think there were other guys that we could have taken over Kjerstad and been able to do the same thing later.  

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4 minutes ago, lovetoaster said:

Didn't you hear? That Ichiro guy was limited defensively. And don't get me started on that Frank Robinson guy and Roberto Clemente. 

All of those guys could play some center when they were in their early 20s.  Ichiro was still playing some CF in his 40s.  Kjerstad will probably never play an inning in center as a pro. 

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

All of those guys could play some center when they were in their early 20s.  Ichiro was still playing some CF in his 40s.  Kjerstad will probably never play an inning in center as a pro. 

True. I was just working off the blanket statement that guys played RF because they were limited defensively. 

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31 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

OK .... Wink Wink

 

Taking Kjerstad over Martin was lunacy! Period! We passed on the BPA due to a strategy of hoping to hit on a 4th or 5th rounder.

Noted. According to you, a draft strategy by one of the brightest minds in baseball is lunacy. Let's move on.

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39 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

OK .... Wink Wink

 

Taking Kjerstad over Martin was lunacy! Period! We passed on the BPA due to a strategy of hoping to hit on a 4th or 5th rounder.

Would you rather have one star or 3 stars? That's essentially what this boils down to, with the obvious caveat that no one is guaranteed to be any good, Martin included.

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