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2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

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3 hours ago, interloper said:

Would you rather have one star or 3 stars? That's essentially what this boils down to, with the obvious caveat that no one is guaranteed to be any good, Martin included.

It’s very likely statistically that only one of these guys pans out. From year to year the percentage of players that become an all star from round 1 is about 30%. The number decreases with each round. You highest and best shot is the guy in the 1st round. You pick the best player , get him signed, and then need some luck. They are almost all lottery tickets 🎫 that don’t pan out. I think passing on Martin lowers the likelihood of getting the best result. If you or @Tony-OH or whomever else don’t agree fine. But the marginal uptick that you get in the 4th or 5th round when the hit percentage is considerably lower is negligible. Plus you’ve traded arguably the highest rated player on some boards for a guy that’s ranked around 10. I don’t understand what is so hard to grasp. 
 

To further answer your question .... the three lottery tickets don’t have the same chance to hit. The guys you could’ve gotten in the 4th or 5th at values likelihood of hitting don’t change much.

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2 hours ago, PHRESH said:

Lunacy seems a bit strong. I respect your opinion though. 

In my opinion, there's no Adley Rutschman-level talent this year. Martin certainly doesn't get my juices flowing. He could be a decent enough player, but doesn't strike me as a can't miss or impact guy. 

I preferred Lacy at 2. But I'm content with improving the 4th and 5th round selections by taking Kjerstad. 

Honestly, he reminds me a little of Richie Martin. 

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Just now, interloper said:

Honestly, he reminds me a little of Richie Martin. 

I mean that’s lunacy. 
 

Without one elite skill, it’s not hard to see why three teams passed. 

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the O’s have very sophisticated techniques for teasing out which statistics from this year’s small sample size can be relied upon, and which can’t.    I do think they were willing to put more credence in some players’ stats from this year than some other teams were.   We will see if they were right.

When they legitimately start producing difference makers ...I’d agree. That has happened yet. FWIW.....How would folks feel if Elias had passed on AR last year and drafted the 10th ranked player? I don’t think this is much different. They passed on a 70 hit tool guy holding the second pick.

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2 hours ago, PHRESH said:

Lunacy seems a bit strong. I respect your opinion though. 

In my opinion, there's no Adley Rutschman-level talent this year. Martin certainly doesn't get my juices flowing. He could be a decent enough player, but doesn't strike me as a can't miss or impact guy. 

I preferred Lacy at 2. But I'm content with improving the 4th and 5th round selections by taking Kjerstad. 

He’s a 70 hit tool guy .... the Orioles haven’t had that guy in forever.

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7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

At least three teams didn’t have him as BPA. I wonder if Miami and KC qualify as lunatics. 

Miami blundered like we did ....they are notoriously cheap. 
 

and 

KC went with pitching and got the top pitcher in the draft. I’d feel considerably different if they had drafted Lacy over Martin.

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13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Honestly, he reminds me a little of Richie Martin. 

Can you provide anything to solidify your insight? Was Richie freaking Martin ever rated at or near the top of his draft class? Did any venue ever grade his hit tool at 70? Was Martin even drafted in the 1st round? No ....He was drafted in the 38th round .NO!!!!!!!...there is simply no comparison Sir!
 

On Martin

Quote
PL Contributor: Kyler
Possibly the best overall player in the draft, Martin put himself on the map as a consensus top of the first round pick after leading Vandy to a National Championship in 2019. As a sophomore, he led the SEC with a .392 AVG while posting a 1.090 OPS. Martin is the whole package. He is arguably the best pure hitter in the draft with many figure the hit tool to be at least plus. Although not being super physical, he should be capable of hitting 20-25 home runs. This season Martin has been playing centerfield, showing an above-average arm and speed. He played 3B prior to this season, where he is a strong defender. Many believe he is more than able to play short.


 

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/mlb-2020-mock-draft-2020

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The best pure hitter in the 2020 Draft, Martin has tremendous feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact with a short, quick right-handed stroke. He's not overly physical and may not have more than average raw power, but his hitting ability allows him to tap into every bit of it. He controls the strike zone extremely well and uses the entire field, exhibiting no weaknesses at the plate.

The Richie Martin comp is just comical @interloper

Richie Martin will never have 20-25 home run power

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

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11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

When they legitimately start producing difference makers ...I’d agree. That has happened yet. FWIW.....How would folks feel if Elias had passed on AR last year and drafted the 10th ranked player? I don’t think this is much different. They passed on a 70 hit tool guy holding the second pick.

What if they took CJ Abrams and saved over $3M, getting basically another mid 1st round pick? A lot of people think Abrams is great, he's around a top 25 prospect...That would have been interesting. Maybe they get Jack Leiter for that, I don't know what he wanted or who else might have been available. But again, would have been interesting...

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Baxter explained what impressed him the most about Martin this year; why he thinks Martin is a great fit for this era of baseball; and more. Before we get to the Q&A, here's what we wrote about Martin when we ranked him as the best prospect in the draft:

Martin, a top-of-the-order hitter and versatile defender, might be the most intriguing player in the class. He has an impressive feel for contact and for the strike zone, finishing his Commodores career with a .368 batting average and more walks than strikeouts. (He was the toughest batter to strike out in the power conferences.) Though he homered just 14 times, his exit velocities suggest there's plus power potential under the surface, something he could achieve thanks to his offensive aptitude and a swing that already features loft. In short, Martin fits the profile of others who have added power to their games in recent years. He's also a skilled baserunner with good speed and smarts. Generally, having an undefined position is a negative. In Martin's case, it could turn out to be a positive. He was primarily a third baseman before this season, when he slid to center field to better leverage his wheels. A creative team could maximize his value by having him split time between the infield and the outfield, a la Whit Merrifield and Scott Kingery, among others.

“Best Prospect in the draft” 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-austin-martin-is-2020s-top-prospect-his-vanderbilt-coach-explains-how-he-could-become-a-star/

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1 minute ago, makoman said:

What if they took CJ Abrams and saved over $3M, getting basically another mid 1st round pick? A lot of people think Abrams is great, he's around a top 25 prospect...That would have been interesting. Maybe they get Jack Leiter for that, I don't know what he wanted or who else might have been available. But again, would have been interesting...

Yes ...it’s possible....just statistically unlikely based on past history on players success rate in each round that goes down. 

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If all these guys were first round talent why weren't they drafted in the first round?  The last pick in the first round was #29 and the Dodgers had a $2.4 million slot.  Do you think any of the the 4th and 5th round picks of the Orioles are going to get more money than that?

It would be very hard as our 5th round pick would be a slot value of $422,300 So we would need to pay him over $2 million over slot over what he could have gotten in the first round.I highly doubt that will happen. 

 

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1 hour ago, makoman said:

Because the negative voices are based on the information we have being right, but the information we have has larger error bars than normal. The basis for most people hating this draft is "we had the chance to take a premium talent and settled for a guy out of the top 10." That is unquestionably true if you look at draft profiles from January. 

This list for example from December 2018 has JJ Bleday as the 26th prospect, Lodolo 27th, Manoa 28th. That's three top 11 picks six months later, including #4. Things can change a lot in a season, and we kind of missed out on a lot of that.

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2018/12/12/2019-mlb-draft-top-50-player-rankings-version-1

Elias surely had any number of underslot options if that's what he wanted. I suspect he had reason to believe that Hjerstad was one of those guys who would be rising this year, whether he believed in the new K rate or saw something else, and was able to get a guy that was still underrated by the industry. Maybe not Martin level, but maybe not all that far. But I acknowledge I'm talking out of my butt a little, things could have moved the other way too. Martin could have solidified as a clear cut #1 pick, and Hjerstad could have played himself out of the first round or down into the 20s. 

 

I know, the negative voices are based on limited information that we have, and the fact that our draft did not take one of the top players according to that limited and possibly out of date information.

So what are positive voices basing their good grades on?   Just the fact that "Elias knows what he is doing"?    OK, I guess we could have had a poll the day BEFORE the draft and asked how we did, and those people would give a good grade not knowing who we had picked.   Because whatever we did, they were going to vote on that basis.

All I know is we were in the rare instance of having a top 2 pick in the draft, something that has only happened 3 times in 56 years of the MLB draft.   With a pick that high, I would like to think we could either get a potential ace starter, a potentially great multi-tool player, based on the scouting reports.   And I just don't feel we did that here.   We got a guy who already can't play a premium up the middle defensive position, knowing that as players develop they typically move down the defensive spectrum or at best stay the same, they rarely move up.   We got a guy who has some questions about his swing, has OK but not great speed.   And that's a disappointment to me.  

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16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Miami blundered like we did ....they are notoriously cheap. 
 

and 

KC went with pitching and got the top pitcher in the draft. I’d feel considerably different if they had drafted Lacy over Martin.

I guess my main question for you is why the overly strong conviction on this? Is it just because people you’ve read had Martin as the #2 guy? To me Martin is a good prospect. He doesn’t do anything well enough to make me say he’s consensus BPA at #2. There’s certainly room for differing opinions, and if our GM and former scout takes him, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. 
 

The cynic in me says it’s the entitlement that comes from being a Bammer. 😉

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17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Can you provide anything to solidify your insight? Was Richie freaking Martin ever rated at or near the top of his draft class? Did any venue ever grade his hit tool at 70? Was Martin even drafted in the 1st round? No ....He was drafted in the 38th round .NO!!!!!!!...there is simply no comparison Sir!
 

On Martin

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/mlb-2020-mock-draft-2020

Richie Martin was a 1st round draft pick. 

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  • Posts

    • Clearly I am failing to get my point across. I'm tired. Have any opinion you want. At the end of the day, you have an opinion, I have facts. My facts state that Elias has dumped one player that became an impact player and he has not acquired any. Does that mean he will never acquire any? No.  Does it mean he missed something of that the technology may not always have the answers, incomplete. I like a lot of what Elias has done in changing things within the organization, but so far his talent evaluations of players he's brought in have not been very good. Grant it, these guys are waiver claims and few of them will turn into anything, but so far he's found middle/long relievers and utility guys or sub par guys they've run out as starters the last two years. I expect things to improve, but what we don't know yet is whether he will be given a budget to help improve the team in the future. Afterall, if they are really making coaching moves based on salary (I still don't believe this) then you can throw away any chances of the team being competitive soon so he will need to build completely from within. My hope was that Elias had the technological and scouting eye to find unearthed talent in other organizations. Instead, he failed to pick up Yaz's potential and the guys he has selected have not shown they are part of a winning future.  Sure, maybe we can give him a pass on Yaz, but he also hired the coaches yet the SF coaches in less then a few weeks found a way to make Yaz an impact player. The man at the top gets credit when things go well, but also must take the blame when they don't.  
    • I know Elias wants to know if he missed something in his evaluation, sure. Why wouldn't he. But I doubt he is losing sleep over this. Yaz was traded on March 23, 2019. At that time, he was a 28 year old OF with average speed, maybe an average arm, below average power for a corner OF that does not play CF. He's 5-10 178 lbs. and was no longer a prospect. He was slowed by injuries, often playing dinged up. Dan Duquette alluded to his injuries in an interview that I saw and stated he had struggled with his progression. He had never really excelled in AAA. He was behind Austin Hays, Yusniel Diaz, Anthony Santander, Ryan McKenna, Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart for playing time in AA/AAA OF playing time. No one knew that several of these players would struggle with injuries and inconsistency, but they were all much more highly regarded prospects than Yaz. At that time, the only AAA OF he was more highly regarded than was Jaycob Brugman, and he was absolutely terrible. Elias decided to cut bait so that actual prospects could play meaningful innings and get the developmental at bats. No other team even thought so much of him as to take him in the rule 5 draft. Did the Giants know something? No, they just got lucky that this one panned out. They had no idea he would do what he has done, no way.  As far as the technology, it isn't something that will diagnose and fix every swing. It gives you lots of data, and it takes time, more than a few weeks, to work through any changes/adjustments needed. Obviously, Elias and his staff were not impressed with what they saw compared to the other guys. Then, Yaz was traded and something changed over the next few months in AAA for him. Great for him. Maybe he started to make good changes from what he learned from the Elias staff, but it took time to begin to show in games. That is often the case with swing changes, approach adjustments. Maybe it was the Giants who found something. Maybe it was something else, who knows.  Was he going to be the same player in Baltimore, facing the AL East? IDK, I would guess likely not. There have been many examples over they years of players who had impact careers out West and got traded to an Eastern team, only to struggle. Would it have been nice to see him do that here in Baltimore, of course. I just don't see why this has become such a hotly contested thing. Hindsight is easy to see clearly. His tools have never indicated this kind of production. There is not one prospect report that says he would do anything like he is doing.  I know you are pretty positive about Elias and Sig. To point to Elias's failure to produce waiver wire pick ups and minor trades into an impact player is incomplete, honestly, in COVID 2020 crazy season. He has no money to spend, and yet most of the ML team was picked up off waivers and minor league free agency and still competed on most nights. The final record looks worse than it was. I would say his record was excellent in the first half. Santander got hurt and many young players struggled badly. Solid approaches went out the window entirely.  Pedro Severino had an OPS north of .850 in July/August and he began to look like an all star (offensively), but he chased much more in September and his numbers faded badly to .250/.322/.388/.710 Jose Iglesias was an impact signing, despite the injuries and many at bats in the DH role .373/.400/.556/.956 Hanser Alberto is what he is a well below-average defender with little power, and he faded badly in September as well .283/.306/.393/.698 Pat Valaika was very good, I thought, for what his role is. .277/.315/.475/.791 Rio Ruiz is probably not the answer at 3B, but I think he gets one more year to see if he can figure it out .222/.286/.427/.713 Richie Martin will be vastly improved, he reported so much stronger than in 2019 and I think his injury robbed him of a breakout of sorts, the swing looked so much more fluid and quick in Spring camp. Ramon Urias might just make Alberto expendable, and I believe he will hit and produce better overall numbers and play better defense. Obviously, Dwight Smith Jr. was a failure. Early in 2019, he certainly looked like he was a certain upgrade to Yaz. The the injuries in late May, neck and shoulder. He has not been the same since. Most of the resources have gone into minor league and international infrastructure. To criticize Elias for the Yaz trade in hindsight, honestly it's silly. No one batted an eye at the time of the deal. Can we just be happy for the guy and not look for someone to blame? If there is a pattern here, then ok, there's a problem. This one baffles everyone because no one saw this coming. And where would Yaz play in our OF next season? Over Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mancini...? 
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