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Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

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How does Mayo compare to Gunnar Henderson?

It’s obvious Mayo, and the O’s, used Gunnar’s money as a negotiating point.  We gave Mayo “Gunnar money”.

2019 - Gunnar #42 overall. Signed for $1.771 million. Ranked #27 pre-draft by MLB.com

2020 - Mayo #103 overall.  Signed for $1.75 million. Equivalent to #42-43 overall slot money. Ranked #132 pre-draft by MLB.com

Edited by sportsfan8703

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Gunnar had a chance to stay at SS with a likelihood of 3B.  This kid has a chance to stay at 3B with a likelihood of corner OF-1B.  Seems like this kid has more raw power at this stage.

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Seems like he does not particularly prioritize pitching. Did not take a pitcher til the 8th round in 2019 or 5th round (last pick) in 2020. Maybe the metrics aren't that good on pitchers to be worth a high pick. I wonder if we will shift away from the "buy the bats, grow the arms" strategy and perhaps sign or trade for an ace when the time comes. In the meantime, grow a bunch of versatile up the middle types who can hit. Could also be perceived need with most of the remaining pipeline from the DD regime on the pitching side.  

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16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Seems like he does not particularly prioritize pitching. Did not take a pitcher til the 8th round in 2019 or 5th round (last pick) in 2020. Maybe the metrics aren't that good on pitchers to be worth a high pick. I wonder if we will shift away from the "buy the bats, grow the arms" strategy and perhaps sign or trade for an ace when the time comes. In the meantime, grow a bunch of versatile up the middle types who can hit. Could also be perceived need with most of the remaining pipeline from the DD regime on the pitching side.  

If he has a lot of up the middle types that can hit, he might be able to trade for some pitching.  

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59 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How does Mayo compare to Gunnar Henderson?

It’s obvious Mayo, and the O’s, used Gunnar’s money as a negotiating point.  We gave Mayo “Gunnar money”.

2019 - Gunnar #42 overall. Signed for $1.771 million. Ranked #27 pre-draft by MLB.com

2020 - Mayo #103 overall.  Signed for $1.75 million. Equivalent to #42-43 overall slot money. Ranked #132 pre-draft by MLB.com

In 2019 Henderson was ranked as the 27th best prospect by MLB Pipeline.  The O's took him with the 42nd pick.

In 2020 Mayo was ranked as the 132nd best prospect by MLB Pipeline. The O's took him with the 103rd  pick.

Mayo was only paid that high because the O's wanted to keep him from going to college.  103 pick slot value is 566K.

Henderson 42nd pick in 2019 slot value was 1.77m.  O's paid him 2.3m

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22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Gunnar had a chance to stay at SS with a likelihood of 3B.  This kid has a chance to stay at 3B with a likelihood of corner OF-1B.  Seems like this kid has more raw power at this stage.

Ok. Thanks for the reply. So we should probably thank of Mayo more 1B. After reading your reply I read some stuff on his defense and it seems like his footwork is pretty slow.  So seems like 1B it is. It wouldn’t be the worst, but hopefully he mashes and we find a spot for him. 

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3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ok. Thanks for the reply. So we should probably thank of Mayo more 1B. After reading your reply I read some stuff on his defense and it seems like his footwork is pretty slow.  So seems like 1B it is. It wouldn’t be the worst, but hopefully he mashes and we find a spot for him. 

Not sure we should completely tank his positional prospects quite yet. Footwork for the IF and footspeed are not necessarily the same thing. Let's think of him as a 3B/COF whose bat has potential to carry at 1B if needed.

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5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ok. Thanks for the reply. So we should probably thank of Mayo more 1B. After reading your reply I read some stuff on his defense and it seems like his footwork is pretty slow.  So seems like 1B it is. It wouldn’t be the worst, but hopefully he mashes and we find a spot for him. 

I think probably RF. Seems like he has a solid arm.

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23 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

If he has a lot of up the middle types that can hit, he might be able to trade for some pitching.  

Isn’t that unwise? Good hitters- especially limited good hitters, are common. Good pitchers are not.

The worst kind of trade is young pitching for established pitching, because you’re trading for a past that benefitted someone else. The Archer trade result was dreadful for the Pirates, but at the time was considered a normal high price. Anytime we trade for someone like Archer, we would be paying the same cost or more( because we don’t have any young pitching we can send away) and taking the same risk.

Our own Bud Norris trade was successful for 2014, but then Norris blew up and was released after getting ~9 million in arbitration. And the Houstons benefited from trading Josh Hader to the Brewers, who have enjoyed him ever since.

Stockpiling a lot of slow mediocre defenders who can hit sure seems unwise to me, and if the guys we’ve drafted turn out ok, we HAVE to trade some of them.

Again, I know nothing about the depth of this draft, but trading for established arms is much more expensive and dangerous than drafting them( unless you’re trading for the Scott Feldmans of the world.) Far better to draft and develop. Even if a player busts, the lost money and time is less than that devoted to the guys you give up for the player acquired in a trade, and the risk is the same.

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1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

I think probably RF. Seems like he has a solid arm.

Isn’t Diaz sated for RF? And Santander for RF, too?

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2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Isn’t Diaz sated for RF? And Santander for RF, too?

The kid just graduated from HS - we drafted Ryan Mountcastle out of HS 5 years ago and he wasn't going to start the season in the majors.

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2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The kid just graduated from HS - we drafted Ryan Mountcastle out of HS 5 years ago and he wasn't going to start the season in the majors.

Odds are good Elias isn't going to be gaming service time in by the time this kid is ready for the majors.

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Odds are good Elias isn't going to be gaming service time in by the time this kid is ready for the majors.

Roll Tide may buy the team and fire Elias by the time Mayo is ready for the majors.

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6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The kid just graduated from HS - we drafted Ryan Mountcastle out of HS 5 years ago and he wasn't going to start the season in the majors.

Yes you’re right, I completely neglected the timelines.

Still, there’s going to be a lot of redundancies at our corner outfield positions, Stewart for one certainly seems to be odd man out at the moment.

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5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes you’re right, I completely neglected the timelines.

Still, there’s going to be a lot of redundancies at our corner outfield positions, Stewart for one certainly seems to be odd man out at the moment.

The goal is to have depth of talent. I think that explains the draft strategy the past two years. We really had no depth and not much talent when Elias arrived.

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