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Frobby

Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

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50 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I think, over the past two drafts, Zach Watson was the worst pick

If our "worst" pick is a CF that will make the majors, then we're doing pretty good.  

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8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He had a 101 OPS+, which was considered a very positive season for him.  Still had a .297 OBP, and his power spike happened in the biggest home run year in MLB history.  So, yes, lots of uncertainty.

Santander Probably won’t survive the next wave of arrivals, but at the moment he is our second best outfielder. Wilkerson, Stewart, Smith, Mullins are all probably/definitely gone before Santander.

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22 minutes ago, Philip said:

Santander Probably won’t survive the next wave of arrivals, but at the moment he is our second best outfielder. Wilkerson, Stewart, Smith, Mullins are all probably/definitely gone before Santander.

Santander is a bat first guy ....so if your right hopefully he will have trade value 

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Santander is a bat first guy ....so if your right hopefully he will have trade value 

I actually thought his defense is pretty good. But if he could be an average player, he will have some trade value, but not much.

It will be interesting to see what he does and the remainder of the season, if there’s any at all

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Since the O's lineup is mostly right-handed Santander is someone that could stick around for years.    Rutschman, Kjerstad, Henderson and Santander help balance the lineup even if Santander is the DH that can back up the OF corners.

Nunez and Mancini are probably more likely to be let go one way or another.  But that is all off in the distance since it will be 2 to 4 years until Kjerstad and Henderson are ready for the majors.

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I guess it can be fun and all, but we should know better than to try and predict rosters several years out, especially when you are hoping the team is moving from terrible to good. 

From the 25 man roster for the divisional series against the Yankees in 2012, only 7 were even with the organization opening day 2010. (other notables: Markakis was injured, Arrieta and Britton were omitted from the roster). 

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, Frobby said:

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.   

2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward trend.   For example, Kjerstad’s hot month outweighed the strikeout concerns presented the prior two seasons because the O’s projected that his swing changes would have produced a monster season.    

3.    He won’t reach for a pitcher.     If the guys he thinks are worthy of their draft spot aren’t there when it’s his turn to pick, he’ll wait round after round until he sees a good value.    

4.   He likes athletic players.     Not Kjerstad so much (though I think he’s pretty athletic, just not as fast as you’d like), but many of his other picks.   

5.   He’s not afraid of drafting hitters with unorthodox mechanics.

 


 




 

I’d add that’s more it’s clear he prioritizes make up in draftees. We’ve heard the term “growth mindset” used multiple times. This is similar to Theo with Chicago. 

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, Frobby said:

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.   

2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward trend.   For example, Kjerstad’s hot month outweighed the strikeout concerns presented the prior two seasons because the O’s projected that his swing changes would have produced a monster season.    

3.    He won’t reach for a pitcher.     If the guys he thinks are worthy of their draft spot aren’t there when it’s his turn to pick, he’ll wait round after round until he sees a good value.    

4.   He likes athletic players.     Not Kjerstad so much (though I think he’s pretty athletic, just not as fast as you’d like), but many of his other picks.   

5.   He’s not afraid of drafting hitters with unorthodox mechanics.

 


 




 

That is a great post. I would add that he has an idea of what type of players and pitchers his development staff can work with best. He seems to have a very strong belief in the development staff. That is why he is not shy about drafting position players who need major swing adjustments like Stowers, Watson and Mayo. (Haskins is unorthodox, but I would not mess with him too much.) He likely weighs personality characteristics heavily to determine if kids are coachable, but he clearly believes in his development staff. 

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On 6/18/2020 at 4:49 PM, Philip said:

Santander Probably won’t survive the next wave of arrivals, but at the moment he is our second best outfielder. Wilkerson, Stewart, Smith, Mullins are all probably/definitely gone before Santander.

Santander did fine for a player basically in his rookie year playing all 3 OF positions.  He's a nice cheap asset.    

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6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Santander did fine for a player basically in his rookie year playing all 3 OF positions.  He's a nice cheap asset.    

I think he’s great. He’s versatile, hits ok and he defends ok, though he’s not great in CF.

The idea is that others behind him will be better. Right now, he’s definitely better than a lot of the alternatives, but that won’t be true by 2022.

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think he’s great. He’s versatile, hits ok and he defends ok, though he’s not great in CF.

The idea is that others behind him will be better. Right now, he’s definitely better than a lot of the alternatives, but that won’t be true by 2022.

That's likely true, but it's also a lot to assume.  I think there's some potential upside with him.  

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One other note about the hitters - a large majority of these guys in the first couple rounds both years bat left-handed - AR, Kjerstad, Stowers, Gunnar, Servideo, etc.  

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40 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

One other note about the hitters - a large majority of these guys in the first couple rounds both years bat left-handed - AR, Kjerstad, Stowers, Gunnar, Servideo, etc.  

AR is a switch hitter, no?

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