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Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

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I've learned that I am likely skewed by being impatient and over reactionary.

That being said, I gave the draft a D after initially saying it "had to be an F" because of the late round selections. I just don't think any other GM would have had a first through third round close to what we had, being in the number 2 position in the draft. I know all teams have unique needs, but we need pitching and OBP, and I don't we got either in the first three rounds. We also have too many OF and SS now. I don't like hearing "has mechanical issues" at all, because so many of those are ingrained and very hard to fix. 

Time will tell, I thought Daniel Cabrera and Luis Matos would have multiple All-Star appearances, so clearly my intuition leaves much to be desired sometimes. 

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24 minutes ago, O-The-Memories said:

I've learned that I am likely skewed by being impatient and over reactionary.

That being said, I gave the draft a D after initially saying it "had to be an F" because of the late round selections. I just don't think any other GM would have had a first through third round close to what we had, being in the number 2 position in the draft. I know all teams have unique needs, but we need pitching and OBP, and I don't we got either in the first three rounds. We also have too many OF and SS now. I don't like hearing "has mechanical issues" at all, because so many of those are ingrained and very hard to fix. 

Kjerstad - .513

Westburg - .432

Haskin - .452

Servideo - .575

How do you know that these OBP won't translate, but guys we didn't take will be OBP guys?

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43 minutes ago, O-The-Memories said:

We also have too many OF and SS now.

How many major league prospects do we have at those positions?

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6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

How many major league prospects do we have at those positions?

Pretty much everyone other than the catcher and pitcher is a guy who moved off of SS/CF. Some of those SS we have drafted will become 3B or 2B at the major league level. Some may even become 1B (a la Mountcastle). A whole 1/3 of your lineup plays OF, so I'm not sure why that's a huge concern either. 

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2 hours ago, O-The-Memories said:

I've learned that I am likely skewed by being impatient and over reactionary.

That being said, I gave the draft a D after initially saying it "had to be an F" because of the late round selections. I just don't think any other GM would have had a first through third round close to what we had, being in the number 2 position in the draft. I know all teams have unique needs, but we need pitching and OBP, and I don't we got either in the first three rounds. We also have too many OF and SS now. I don't like hearing "has mechanical issues" at all, because so many of those are ingrained and very hard to fix. 

Time will tell, I thought Daniel Cabrera and Luis Matos would have multiple All-Star appearances, so clearly my intuition leaves much to be desired sometimes. 

The Orioles have very little everyday talent.  Very little.  Certainly not enough talent to begin worrying about having too many of a position...ANYWHERE.  That said, we all are impatient and we all tend to be reactionary.  I mean If we are drafting in the top spots can't we just draft Frank Robinson, Cal Ripken and Jim Palmer every year for 3 years and then win?  Everyone understands that doesn't happen...and that is also why we see the O's move off of "rankings" and worry they have lost their mind.

Its a crapshoot.  I think they believe they marginally improved the overall chances of success.  But the likelihood is that it results pretty much the same.  There is a reason rankings miss all the time.  Otherwise, no one would havre passed on Mike Trout.  I hope it works out, but I just can't believe in the grand scheme of things, that the Elias Orioles Era sinks or swims on the difference between #2 Austin Martin (who actually landed #5) and #2 Heston Kjerstad (who was slotted around #10).  But it sure is intense to understand that it could....

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32 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The Orioles have very little everyday talent.  Very little.  Certainly not enough talent to begin worrying about having too many of a position...ANYWHERE.  That said, we all are impatient and we all tend to be reactionary.  I mean If we are drafting in the top spots can't we just draft Frank Robinson, Cal Ripken and Jim Palmer every year for 3 years and then win?  Everyone understands that doesn't happen...and that is also why we see the O's move off of "rankings" and worry they have lost their mind.

Its a crapshoot.  I think they believe they marginally improved the overall chances of success.  But the likelihood is that it results pretty much the same.  There is a reason rankings miss all the time.  Otherwise, no one would havre passed on Mike Trout.  I hope it works out, but I just can't believe in the grand scheme of things, that the Elias Orioles Era sinks or swims on the difference between #2 Austin Martin (who actually landed #5) and #2 Heston Kjerstad (who was slotted around #10).  But it sure is intense to understand that it could....

Want to emphasize that this is in a year in which the public rankings are likely more uncertain than ever before due to the limited view they got into this years' crop of guys.

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My only concern are the strikeout tendencies of those drafted.   To me, this indicates they have tendencies that a Major League pitcher can readily exploit.   

 

I'd love it if one of those statistics-wizards could look at strikeout rates in college and correlation with MLB success/failure...

 

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10 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

My only concern are the strikeout tendencies of those drafted.   To me, this indicates they have tendencies that a Major League pitcher can readily exploit.   

 

I'd love it if one of those statistics-wizards could look at strikeout rates in college and correlation with MLB success/failure...

 

Sig is a statistical wizard. 

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17 hours ago, DocJJ said:

My only concern are the strikeout tendencies of those drafted.   To me, this indicates they have tendencies that a Major League pitcher can readily exploit.   

 

I'd love it if one of those statistics-wizards could look at strikeout rates in college and correlation with MLB success/failure...

 

I don't really know how teams look at strikeouts in a world where the average MLB batter strikes out 138 times per 600 PAs.

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In 1989 the all time Oriole record for strikeouts in a season was 125 by Boog in 1966.  Four Orioles had more than that last year.  I expect Kjerstad to strike out 150 times a season.

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18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 1989 the all time Oriole record for strikeouts in a season was 125 by Boog in 1966.  Four Orioles had more than that last year.  I expect Kjerstad to strike out 150 times a season.

This is not an easy thing to guess, BUT what kind of slash line would you think is the median expectation for Kjerstad in his first few seasons?

This question goes for anyone here, not just you DH. :)

For those unfamiliar with what I mean by a slash line, it's Batting Average/On Base %/Slugging %/OPS(OBP+SLG).
An example for Kjerstad may be .275/.320/.500/.820

Another example: .285/.335/.530/.865 :)

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1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

This is not an easy thing to guess, BUT what kind of slash line would you think is the median expectation for Kjerstad in his first few seasons?

This question goes for anyone here, not just you DH. :)

For those unfamiliar with what I mean by a slash line, it's Batting Average/On Base %/Slugging %/OPS(OBP+SLG).
An example for Kjerstad may be .275/.320/.500/.820

Another example: .285/.335/.530/.865 :)

Got into this a bit over in the draft subforum, but in regards to overall career outcome/comps.

To your question, I think a fair median outcome in first couple seasons would be something like:

.260/.320/.455/.775 (This would translate to ~101 - 105 OPS+ last year)

Pretty much Anthony Santander's 2019 with higher OBP and lower SLG.

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1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

This is not an easy thing to guess, BUT what kind of slash line would you think is the median expectation for Kjerstad in his first few seasons?

This question goes for anyone here, not just you DH. :)

For those unfamiliar with what I mean by a slash line, it's Batting Average/On Base %/Slugging %/OPS(OBP+SLG).
An example for Kjerstad may be .275/.320/.500/.820

Another example: .285/.335/.530/.865 :)

That's an impossible task.  Or nearly.  Look at historical drafts. 

In 2014 there were seven college 1B/3B/OFers taken in the first round. 

  • Michael Conforto had a 1.000 OPS for Oregon State in '14.  By '16 he was in the majors, by '17 he was a very productive MLB hitter, now has an .800+ OPS with the Mets in 2000+ PAs.
  • Bradley Zimmer had a 1.000 OPS for San Francisco in College.  He's had a few brief trials with the Indians and has a .652 OPS.  Never had more than 16 homers in a minor league season.
  • Derek Fisher didn't even really hit at UVA so not a comp.
  • Mike Papi had a .939 at UVA, over 1.000 the year before.  Never played in the majors, never had a full minor league season with an .800 OPS.
  • Connor Joe had a  1.000 OPS for San Diego State.  Is now 27, 1-for-15 in the majors, and was one of about 1000 people to OPS .900 in the PCL last year.
  • Matt Chapman had a .910 OPS at Cal State Fullerton.  Last year had an .848 OPS and 36 homers for the A's.
  • Casey Gillespie had a 1.200 OPS for Wichita State.  One or two good years in the minors but is now 27 and played last year in indy ball.

So here's my projection for Kjerstad in 2025:

.230 average +/- .080

.315 OBP +/- .060

.420 SLG +/- .100

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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's an impossible task.  Or nearly.  Look at historical drafts. 

In 2014 there were seven college 1B/3B/OFers taken in the first round. 

  • Michael Conforto had a 1.000 OPS for Oregon State in '14.  By '16 he was in the majors, by '17 he was a very productive MLB hitter, now has an .800+ OPS with the Mets in 2000+ PAs.
  • Bradley Zimmer had a 1.000 OPS for San Francisco in College.  He's had a few brief trials with the Indians and has a .652 OPS.  Never had more than 16 homers in a minor league season.
  • Derek Fisher didn't even really hit at UVA so not a comp.
  • Mike Papi had a .939 at UVA, over 1.000 the year before.  Never played in the majors, never had a full minor league season with an .800 OPS.
  • Connor Joe had a  1.000 OPS for San Diego State.  Is now 27, 1-for-15 in the majors, and was one of about 1000 people to OPS .900 in the PCL last year.
  • Matt Chapman had a .910 OPS at Cal State Fullerton.  Last year had an .848 OPS and 36 homers for the A's.
  • Casey Gillespie had a 1.200 OPS for Wichita State.  One or two good years in the minors but is now 27 and played last year in indy ball.

So here's my projection for Kjerstad in 2025:

.230 average +/- .080

.315 OBP +/- .060

.420 SLG +/- .100

Some people transition to wood bats better than others.  I think sometimes people (not you specifically) can forget how different it is.

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