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Grade the Draft

Grade the 2020 Draft  

130 members have voted

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  1. 1. What’s your initial grade for the Orioles’ 2020 draft?


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  • Poll closed on 6/30/2020 at 16:48

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2 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

Baumann, Lowther, kremer, harvey, wells, Akin.

It's consider that a fair amount of talent. Not that I wouldn't love to have even more, but it's decent depth 

Eh, meh.  They're alright.  

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1 hour ago, LTO's said:

FWIW some people don't think Martin has a good enough arm to play CF, SS or 3B. So you are essentially giving full slot value at the second pick to a second baseman. That is not a highly regarded strategy. If he sticks at one of those positions and hits well then we might be looking at a mistake. But, if Kjerstad out slugs him and plays solid OF defense Elias will look like a genius especially if one of the high schoolers make it up here.

It's still more value than corner outfield/1B/DH.

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"C" seems about right given the info we have, which isn't much.  With the understanding the "C" isn't good or bad, but perfectly average.

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

D
 

Too much risk with the #2 pick. It’s stupid to hate on an MLB draft so soon. So I’m not hating on the players, or the strategy. It’s a fine strategy if you were picking 3+. 
 

What’s the point of losing so much if we’re not going to draft Martin. 
 

It’s a fine draft strategy, just not with the 2nd pick. 

I feel like this argument would be much more compelling if Miami (or KC) had selected him immediately in our wake. That he lasted until 5 makes me think those in the know (MLB FOs) weren't as in love with him as other outlets.

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1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I feel like this argument would be much more compelling if Miami (or KC) had selected him immediately in our wake. That he lasted until 5 makes me think those in the know (MLB FOs) weren't as in love with him as other outlets.

Or maybe got scared off by Boras and the asking price.  I'm not happy that Toronto got him.

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10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Or maybe got scared off by Boras and the asking price.  I'm not happy that Toronto got him.

If Boras wanted 1:1 money, how would Toronto sign him at #5?  One thing is wrong. Either rumors of asking price or consensus of his draft value. JMO

A 3rd scenario is that he's demanding 1:1 money and Toronto took with the idea of either signing him for #5 slot or taking the extra pick next year if he doesn't. 

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Just now, RZNJ said:

If Boras wanted 1:1 money, how would Toronto sign him at #5?  One thing is wrong. Either rumors of asking price or consensus of his draft value. JMO

I don't disagree.  But it's not like the consensus of his draft value was totally off....no one (except Elias, of course) had him lower than Kjerstad.  Perhaps rumors of asking price AND consensus of draft value weren't aligned, but not off by a lot.  Off by just enough to let him slide a little to 5th in the draft where he can't really command 1:1 money.  

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I gave it a B.  Elias took two big gambles in this draft.  First, by going underslot at 1:2, he gambled that there would be worthwhile overslot talent available in the later rounds.  It looks like that gamble paid off to some extent in rounds 4 and 5.

The second gamble was to put a lot of weight on the performance of players who got off to a hot start against weak competition this spring.  If you take early season performance at face value, Kjerstad and Servideo made a great leap forward this season.  If that improvement had been sustained over a full season, they would have moved way up the draft boards.  Hopefully Elias had his sabermetricians study how much early season performance spikes have carried over into the rest of the season historically,  while his scouts scoured the film to see if they could detect a change in mechanics or approach that would explain their performance spike.   

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Nobody can say for sure, and that can be the argument for the next 3-5 years, but Detroit picked one spot ahead of us and did much better than we did. 

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I would have gone lower but I deferred to Tony's take on the last two picks, so I upped the grade to a C.

When you suffer through a miserable season and wind up with a top pick, you expect to get someone considered to be a premium talent.   (And before you point out how many #2s don't work out, I know that, but if you are going to take that point of view there is no point in trying to grade a draft at all.   The poll is here, so if I am going to pick a grade, saying it's all a crapshoot anyway is a complete copout).

Bottom line, we had the #2 pick overall and we didn't get anyone who was in the consensus top 10.   Our top 3 picks do not appear to be complete players.   But we got significant value with our last two picks.

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I said B.  Longerhagen of Fangraphs loves what we did

I think Baltimore crushed it. Cutting a deal with Heston Kjerstad at two enabled them to scoop up good high schoolers Coby Mayo (67th on my board, with huge power and arm strength, and who I have him projected in right field) and Carter Baumler near the end of the draft. I also think Anthony Servideo’s 2020 breakout is for real.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/draft-odds-ends-2/

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, this organization is devoid of pitching talent. 

That feels tough on the Baumann/Kremer/Lowther/Akin basket (heck even Hunter Harvey, possible 2-time Rookie of the Year if he can replicate Gregg Olson's 1989/1990).  I do look for a couple useful pieces from there for the peak Rutschman teams.  Maybe more if the handpicked style of guys from the Bundy trade come along like the FO probably expects.

It would have been different if the Bitsko Plan A had worked, but the Westburg/Haskin/Servideo basket of Spread The Wealth NCAA guys may yield another helpful piece by sometime in '22 when I hope for relevance behind Hall/Rodriguez/Rutschman/Kjerstad/2021 pick 1-X.

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