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Greg Pappas

FWIW: My thoughts on the O's draft

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Man do I really not understand why Keith Law's opinion carries such weight with people. 

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7 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Man do I really not understand why Keith Law's opinion carries such weight with people. 

He cooks. He has refined airs. He did a local bookstore virtual booksiging here a few weeks back and he sure is fancy. 

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Very thoughtful OP, Greg.    It will the interesting to see how much $ the players you would have selected receive, to see if we could have squeezed them all in.   And, it will be fun to look back on this thread in 5-10 years and see how your scenario would have played out, compared to the players we chose.    

Thanks Frobby. I hope the 'highest level of pro' Elias crushes me like the amateur draftnik I am!! :D 

To be clear about the OP... it was not an easy exercise, but I felt that by forcing rules upon myself it made for a more fair way to see what may have been if had we took the path most felt we were going to; by taking Martin and then onward from there.  Guys like McMahon at 30 and Van Eyk at 39 may be far removed from where the O's ranked them and Elias likely would have taken completely different players. I suspect Westburg would still have gone at 30. Anyway, it was cool to do. :)

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25 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I am glad you shared your thoughts. It creates discussion here. I mean no disrespect to you at all. And I don’t disagree with you completely. I just wanted to share my thoughts as well and point out that these rankings are flawed in most years. And this year, much more so. I am just asking you to put the rankings aside for a minute and look at the latest video. 
 

When I watched the 2020 video on these guys, especially Kjerstad, I was impressed. Kjerstad is much faster than a 40 runner, for instance. He may be just a tick above average. I’ll throw a 55 on him. He even bunted for base hits and stretched singles into doubles. He obviously has worked hard and he is much leaner. His swing is more controlled and the ball is flying off the bat. His swing and miss was cut down significantly. I honestly, aside from track record, do not see much difference between Torkelson and the current version of Kjerstad in the way of hit or power tools. My non-professional eyes tell me that. I know many here will mock me for this, but I truly believe that. Look at the video in the Kjerstad thread. He definitely is much improved over last year. 

You didn't disrespect me... it's all good, my friend. :)  I watch videos like others do, but do not have a great feel for what I'm seeing, at least compared to some. I know that Kjerstad played a small sample size this season (67 AB's) like everyone else, and mostly against inferior competition (like most others), that upped the view of some scouts, and perhaps the O's as well.  Maybe they saw what you did.  I don't know. I have said I believe Kjerstad will be an above average to very good pro player (and may even make an all-star team a time or two), I was adamantly in favor of who I believed was the superior player. Yet, if Kjerstad indeed becomes among the top players from this draft at the big league level, then it will have been a good pick, even if Martin outperforms him... just not necessarily the right pick.  I just think Elias will have to hit on one or both of the two HS kids to close the gap I suspect we'll see.

I will always compare Martin's career to Kjerstad, and as I've repeated, I hope that Kjerstad kills it for us and that Elias proves to have made great picks for us, no matter what Martin does.

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I guess people would have really pooped the bed if they took my choice at #2 with Hassell.  I would have preferred him but then again he has a longer road to the majors.  Probably a broken record, but Abel was my choice at #2 but also a longer road.  My biggest surprise is that both Bitsko and Jordan Walker were both gone by #30.  Really wanted Walker there(as if it was my decision).  I must have been drafting for the Padres because they got Hassell and Lange.  I am also surprised that Blaze went so late but maybe his number was high and Boston saved in the first round to get him later.  I think I would have gave him a shot earlier if I were pretty much any team, but he bugs me.  Reminds me of that kid in the Clint Eastwood movie that has troubles hitting a curve(Purely on physical appearance).

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I too was extremely disappointed to see both Bitsko and Walker gone by 30.  Not sure I saw any mock with that scenario.  I think our draft room was probably when the BoSox popped the HS 2B in the first round.  At the time, it seemed pretty obvious that Crowe-Armstrong, Mitchell, Sabata, Wells and Soderstrom would be taken before 30,  and I believe there is a good chance we would have taken one from Walker, Bitsko, Miller, Shuster, Jarvis and Cavalli.  I think our draft room probably felt comfortable with our possible choices at 30, esp with speculation that the LAD would taken a position player in multiple mocks I saw.

As with most here, I probably would have taken Martin and then chosen from among Bleeter, McMahon, Van Eyk and Fulton at 30/39 and then taken Petey Halpin at 74.    Not sure what other $ would have been available after that or if I would have had to take senior signs in the fourth and fifth rounds.

Greg, you contribution to the OH for the 2020 draft has been outstanding - probably the best among posters.  Well done!

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5 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I too was extremely disappointed to see both Bitsko and Walker gone by 30.  Not sure I saw any mock with that scenario.  I think our draft room was probably when the BoSox popped the HS 2B in the first round.  At the time, it seemed pretty obvious that Crowe-Armstrong, Mitchell, Sabata, Wells and Soderstrom would be taken before 30,  and I believe there is a good chance we would have taken one from Walker, Bitsko, Miller, Shuster, Jarvis and Cavalli.  I think our draft room probably felt comfortable with our possible choices at 30, esp with speculation that the LAD would taken a position player in multiple mocks I saw.

As with most here, I probably would have taken Martin and then chosen from among Bleeter, McMahon, Van Eyk and Fulton at 30/39 and then taken Petey Halpin at 74.    Not sure what other $ would have been available after that or if I would have had to take senior signs in the fourth and fifth rounds.

Greg, you contribution to the OH for the 2020 draft has been outstanding - probably the best among posters.  Well done!

I JUST saw this, so thank you, kindly. 

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On 6/12/2020 at 5:46 PM, Greg Pappas said:

It still wouldn't accurately reflect where I would have taken them, though I understand where you're coming from. I'd be surprised if they exceeded 13.7. Time will tell.

Austin Martin went 5th.
McMahon went 46th.
Van Eyk went 42nd.
Casey Martin went 87th
Bedell went 122nd
Elder went 156th
 

I want to update this as prospects sign. I have some memory issues, but I'll try to keep up on this.
The actual amount for the O's Draft Bonus Pool was $13,821,300.

  • Austin Martin went 5th (Blue Jays), though I would have taken him at #2 in my exercise.  The #2 slot bonus is $7,789,900.  (Signed for $7,000,825)
  • Chris McMahon went 46th (Rockies), though I would have taken him at #30 in my exercise. The #30 slot bonus is $2,365,500.  (Signed for $1,637,400)
  • CJ Van Eyk went 42nd (Blue Jays), though I would have taken him at #39 in my exercise. The #39 slot bonus is $1,906,800.  (Signed for $1,800,000)
  • Casey Martin went 87th (Phillies), though I would have taken him at #74 in my exercise. The #74 slot bonus is $844,200.  (Signed for $1,300,000)
  • Ian Bedell went 122nd (Cardinals), though I would have taken him at #103 in my exercise. The #103 slot bonus is $565,600. (Signed for $800,000)
  • Bryce Elder went 156th (Braves), though I would have taken him at #130 in my exercise. The #130 slot bonus is $422,300.  (Signed for $850,000) 

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4 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I want to update this as prospects sign. I have some memory issues, but I'll try to keep up on this.
The actual amount for the O's Draft Bonus Pool was $13,821,300.

Austin Martin went 5th, though I would have taken him at #2 in my exercise.  The #2 slot bonus is $7,789,900. 
Chris McMahon went 46th, though I would have taken him at #30 in my exercise. The #30 slot bonus is $2,365,500. 
CJ Van Eyk went 42nd, though I would have taken him at #39 in my exercise. The #39 slot bonus is $1,906,800.  (Signed for $1,800,000)
Casey Martin went 87th, though I would have taken him at #74 in my exercise. The #74 slot bonus is $844,200. 
Ian Bedell went 122nd, though I would have taken him at #103 in my exercise. The #103 slot bonus is $565,600. 
Bryce Elder went 156th, though I would have taken him at #130 in my exercise. The #130 slot bonus is $422,300.  (Signed well overslot at $850,000) It seems that my choosing him would not have been possible at slot or less, so I probably would have had to go with another prospect... we'll see as others sign.

Good call on Elder.  The Braves going underslot in the 1st & 3rd rounds (they didn't have a 2nd) gave them enough room to go overslot in the 5th to get Elder.  Obviously, the Braves's slots weren't near the O's slot at #2 overall.  Personally, I like the way the O's took advantage of that slot, but I can see why you prefer Martin and still find a way to get Elder - who most seem to regard as a 3rd round talent.      

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On 6/23/2020 at 8:15 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Interesting that every one of your targets were still on the board.

From his earlier post in which he made the list (italics/underlining mine, but not bolding):

Quote

Thus, not knowing signability demands makes doing your own "Here's who I would've taken" exercise shaky- at best.  Still, limiting myself to college juniors and those available at our picks AND were actually drafted (so no Tommy Mace or Seth Lonsway), here goes (player profiles from MLB Pipeline):

 

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Now that five of the six prospects I targeted in this exercise have signed, there remains $7,433,900 to "sign" Austin Martin.  Whether Martin signs for that amount or less, the exercise was created to show what sort of talent we may have been able to draft if we went with A. Martin. I know that I would not have actually taken the exact same six players I pretend drafted, as I am certain to want to have targeted a couple of HS talents at some point. Guys I would have still targeted include A. Martin, McMahon and Bedell. Regardless, what these guys signed for would be for different amounts I'm sure because of different slots. I know this though, I hope Kjerstad and the rest of the 2020 draftees turn out great and they (and Elias/staff) have my full support. :)

The O's Draft Bonus Pool was $13,821,300.

  • Austin Martin went 5th (Blue Jays), though I would have taken him at #2 in my exercise.  The #2 slot bonus is $7,789,900.  (Signed for $7,000,825) 
  • Chris McMahon went 46th (Rockies), though I would have taken him at #30 in my exercise. The #30 slot bonus is $2,365,500.  (Signed for $1,637,400)
  • CJ Van Eyk went 42nd (Blue Jays), though I would have taken him at #39 in my exercise. The #39 slot bonus is $1,906,800.  (Signed for $1,800,000)
  • Casey Martin went 87th (Phillies), though I would have taken him at #74 in my exercise. The #74 slot bonus is $844,200.  (Signed for $1,300,000)
  • Ian Bedell went 122nd (Cardinals), though I would have taken him at #103 in my exercise. The #103 slot bonus is $565,600. (Signed for $800,000)
  • Bryce Elder went 156th (Braves), though I would have taken him at #130 in my exercise. The #130 slot bonus is $422,300.  (Signed for $850,000)

EDIT: Updated Austin Martin's signing bonus

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