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Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

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On 6/17/2021 at 2:15 PM, osravensfan78 said:

 

I got a question in today during the Mayo draft chat. Not sure I liked the answer though. Just wanted to share with everyone. 

Did the Kjerstad misadventure teach the O's nothing?  When you're team is blessed w/ a top 5 pick (an the MLB team is obviously unblessed), taking the best player available is common sense.  I don't understand giving up drafting a premium talent to draft a slighter higher talent level player in the later rounds.  I don't see how downgrading the #2 pick to the 10th best talent is made up with getting the 80th best talent in the 100th slot *not the actual slots, just an example).

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49 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Did the Kjerstad misadventure teach the O's nothing?  When you're team is blessed w/ a top 5 pick (an the MLB team is obviously unblessed), taking the best player available is common sense.  I don't understand giving up drafting a premium talent to draft a slighter higher talent level player in the later rounds.  I don't see how downgrading the #2 pick to the 10th best talent is made up with getting the 80th best talent in the 100th slot *not the actual slots, just an example).

 

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46 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Did the Kjerstad misadventure teach the O's nothing?  When you're team is blessed w/ a top 5 pick (an the MLB team is obviously unblessed), taking the best player available is common sense.  I don't understand giving up drafting a premium talent to draft a slighter higher talent level player in the later rounds.  I don't see how downgrading the #2 pick to the 10th best talent is made up with getting the 80th best talent in the 100th slot *not the actual slots, just an example).

So, you have personally scouted Kjerstad? Anybody else who was available? How do you know he did not think Kjerstad was the BPA? Let me guess, you are basing that on the publication lists? And those lists are based on what they are told, as they are journalists, not scouts. Those lists are not what Elias uses to base his picks on. And if he did, he should be fired.

Kjerstad has a heart virus that can kill him, and you call that a "misadventure?" It was something he contracted after the draft. What is Mike Elias supposed to learn from that? Good grief.

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10 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

So, you have personally scouted Kjerstad? Anybody else who was available? How do you know he did not think Kjerstad was the BPA? Let me guess, you are basing that on the publication lists? And those lists are based on what they are told, as they are journalists, not scouts. Those lists are not what Elias uses to base his picks on. And if he did, he should be fired.

Kjerstad has a heart virus that can kill him, and you call that a "misadventure?" It was something he contracted after the draft. What is Mike Elias supposed to learn from that? Good grief.

Simple thoughts yet most people are unable to grasp them.

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I wonder how many people would be whining about the Kjerstad pick if he was playing and hitting well.

If Elias knew Kjerstad had this virus and its consequences, and he drafted him anyway, then he deserves criticism.  Otherwise, it's looking right now as if the Orioles were just unlucky.

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12 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

So, you have personally scouted Kjerstad? Anybody else who was available? How do you know he did not think Kjerstad was the BPA? Let me guess, you are basing that on the publication lists? And those lists are based on what they are told, as they are journalists, not scouts. Those lists are not what Elias uses to base his picks on. And if he did, he should be fired.

Kjerstad has a heart virus that can kill him, and you call that a "misadventure?" It was something he contracted after the draft. What is Mike Elias supposed to learn from that? Good grief.

The O's had a very poorly thought out draft strategy.  Of course they didn't know he would get Covid, that would be stupid. 

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23 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's had a very poorly thought out draft strategy.  Of course they didn't know he would get Covid, that would be stupid. 

Why was it poorly thought out?  Was it because of the injuries that happened after the draft that were out of their control?  If Martin was injured, would it have been a good strategy?  The bottom line is that we were unlucky with injuries.

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52 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's had a very poorly thought out draft strategy.  Of course they didn't know he would get Covid, that would be stupid. 

What was the poorly thought out draft strategy?

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11 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

What was the poorly thought out draft strategy?

Trying to go underslot with the 1st round pick.  The O's have been doing this for years.  it seems to be an organizational philosophy (maybe ownership).  There have been so many picks where the O's took a pick who was a reach in the 1st round.  DJ, Grenier, Hobgood, etc, etc. 

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1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Trying to go underslot with the 1st round pick.  The O's have been doing this for years.  it seems to be an organizational philosophy (maybe ownership).  There have been so many picks where the O's took a pick who was a reach in the 1st round.  DJ, Grenier, Hobgood, etc, etc. 

So, just that simple huh? Underslot is a bad strategy regardless of reason or who is picked?

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1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Trying to go underslot with the 1st round pick.  The O's have been doing this for years.  it seems to be an organizational philosophy (maybe ownership).  There have been so many picks where the O's took a pick who was a reach in the 1st round.  DJ, Grenier, Hobgood, etc, etc. 

I don’t think Stewart was necessarily a reach.   Here’s a BA mock that had Stewart going no. 20 to Oakland.   Ironically, that same mock had us taking Richie Martin.  In reality, those picks were reversed.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-5-1/%3famphtml

In any event, I don’t think picks made by Andy MacPhail, Dan Duquette and their scouting directors have anything to do with Elias’ draft philosophy.   Nor do I think ownership is involved.   
 

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27 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Trying to go underslot with the 1st round pick.  The O's have been doing this for years.  it seems to be an organizational philosophy (maybe ownership).  There have been so many picks where the O's took a pick who was a reach in the 1st round.  DJ, Grenier, Hobgood, etc, etc. 

Stewart wasn't a reach.

Grenier was a reach IMO but that was more so for positional need than trying to save money (which, IMO, is an even worse reason).

I think the Hobgood pick is the only one that really applies to this argument.  Jordan definitely said that he had Hogbood ranked similar to some others and that we was trying to save money to spend later in the draft (which he did).

But ultimately, no, I see very little evidence that this is an organizational strategy by the Orioles.  They've picked highly ranked players at the top spots many times before.  The Kjerstad pick, to date, has been nothing more than unforeseeable bad luck.

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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's had a very poorly thought out draft strategy.  Of course they didn't know he would get Covid, that would be stupid. 

We don't know he had Covid.

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