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Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

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8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So hoping that Lawlar falls to us.  Highest upside on this class.  Will be so pissed if Boston gets him.

Dude has a punchable face, he'll end up in Boston for sure.  No more Papi, no more Pedroia.  They need a punchable face.

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dude has a punchable face, he'll end up in Boston for sure.  No more Papi, no more Pedroia.  They need a punchable face.

Makes you wonder how they missed out on Teixeira.

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I'm lukewarm on Lawlar for the same ageist reason as Witt.

Lawlar 7.1.2002 will already be 19 by draft day just as Witt 6.14.2000 was in 2019.  I think 6.30 is the exact seasonal age day, so Lawlar will max out that dividing line forever and ever.   Gunnar 6.29.2001 was two drafts ahead but is just one year older than Lawlar.

Maybe I've seen too much Friday Night Lights and the Texas dream of gridiron domination with all the "let's hold the boy back from kindergarten a year" and maybe its something completely innocent, but whatever the root of it was, those quarters and half years of age bear on future projection.

There's a whole season for the Age 18's and Age 21's to play, but Lawlar (age and all), and the three SEC aces would be kind of a bummer of a Top 4.   Its probably early to count Hill there until he pitches as many innings as Hunter Harvey.   I'm sure Garrett Stallings had plenty of rising NCAA juniors alongside him this offseason, so who knows who's who these days?   Games soon, games soon...

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3 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

I would take Gunnar Hogland.  I mean how could anyone stop us with two Gunnar’s on the team.

Trying to out Gunnar the opposition? 

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Hill for LSU made it 6 innings last night to get his Junior Year workload up to 2 starts and 10 innings (same as Freshman Year), allowing 1 hit to Youngstown State with a 4/0 K/BB ratio.  

That gets his entire NCAA career up to 31.2 innings, with just 11 hits allowed.   Two more non-conference Friday nights before SEC league play starts (no offense to upcoming Oral Roberts and UTSA).

Nothing about him individually in Ben's Twitter yet though I did learn there just now he calls some of the games for SEC Network.

 

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On 2/26/2021 at 6:26 PM, bpilktree said:

I would take Gunnar Hogland.  I mean how could anyone stop us with two Gunnar’s on the team.

Good thing they don’t play basketball.  

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If he's there at 5, they take McClain from UCLA. That has Elias written all over it. 

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Since we're discussing prospect ages, I wanted to make a note about OF Jud Fabian.

Although he's draft-eligible because this is his third year of college baseball, he should be young for his class. During what should have been the spring of his senior year in high school, he enrolled early at Florida and promptly won the starting CF job. While his numbers as a freshman weren't overly impressive, a lot of top prospects come to Florida and can't win a starting job as a freshman. He started at a premium position when he should have been a senior in high school. We'll see if it helps him as a prospect too.

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16 hours ago, LTO's said:

If he's there at 5, they take McClain from UCLA. That has Elias written all over it. 

I don't know.  I hope not.  Is there enough upside?  Is he a 2B?  I'd rather he gamble on a guy like Mayer.

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11 hours ago, Gatoriole said:

Since we're discussing prospect ages, I wanted to make a note about OF Jud Fabian.

Although he's draft-eligible because this is his third year of college baseball, he should be young for his class. During what should have been the spring of his senior year in high school, he enrolled early at Florida and promptly won the starting CF job.

That's good context, though for our current assortment he maybe cannibalizes the whole Hays/Mullins/McKenna/Haskin basket a little bit in a George Springer kind of way.   The tidbit reminds me of Bryce Community College.   Hoping here Santander and Kjerstad are set/forget corners a good long while.

Just for context year-over-year -- Kjerstad 2020 was a 2.12.1999, and Fabian 2021 is 9.27.2000, so he has him by 7.5 months and will indeed still be <21 IRL on draft day.  And for whatever A-ball playoffs he might be part of if he isn't too tired after the College World Series.

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5 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

That's good context, though for our current assortment he maybe cannibalizes the whole Hays/Mullins/McKenna/Haskin basket a little bit in a George Springer kind of way.   The tidbit reminds me of Bryce Community College.   Hoping here Santander and Kjerstad are set/forget corners a good long while.

Just for context year-over-year -- Kjerstad 2020 was a 2.12.1999, and Fabian 2021 is 9.27.2000, so he has him by 7.5 months and will indeed still be <21 IRL on draft day.  And for whatever A-ball playoffs he might be part of if he isn't too tired after the College World Series.

Yeah, we have to see how the season plays out to see if Fabian is in play for us. You don't draft for need, but I agree our OF is crowded, so ideally we are drafting a player at a different position. All that said, Fabian is a college bat at a premium position and I often see him listed as a top-10 prospect.

I imagine if Fabian is in consideration for us, we'll be discussing his age. I see his history a little different in that he already "played up" compared to other prospects. Also, I would guess he had a little less development in HS before competing as a young freshman (I don't know, but guessing he played only 3 years in HS). I don't know that it counts for much in analyzing a prospect, but I think it's interesting if that history matters to teams (I would guess some teams would care and other teams would not).

 

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15 hours ago, Gatoriole said:

I imagine if Fabian is in consideration for us, we'll be discussing his age

Keith Law just released his top 30 draft prospects and predictably had a totally different ranking than everybody else. He didn't have Fabian on the list at all. The more I think about it, I wonder if this is the draft the Os take a pitcher high. Seems like there are more questions about the top college bats than I had realized since the season started. If one of Leiter, Rocker or Hill is there they'll have a tough choice.

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