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Frobby

Our best and worst 60-game records of the last two years

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I posted elsewhere, the difference in our winning percentage inside the division (.316) and outside (.349) was pretty small last year, and would only amount to about half a win less over 60 games for the current schedule (67% within the division) compared to a normal schedule (47% within the division).    If we only win 10-12 games (which I doubt), it won’t be because of how many games we played against the AL East, it will be because we are a much worse team than last year.     While I think we’re worse, I doubt it’s by nearly that much.   

A rare opportunity to disagree with you on a fun prediction! (BTW thanks for the good idea behind this thread.) I think we're much worse than last season. Not only because of the absence of last year's two best hitters (Mancini, Villar) and second and fifth best pitchers (Cashner, Bundy), but also because I'm far from sure that Means, Alberto, and Severino can approximate their 2019 seasons. New blood in the outfield and at SS may help though--we shall see!

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I'm content with the fact that it is mathematically impossible for us to lose 100 games this season. We can't extend our "modest" 2 season streak by default.

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With our luck as Orioles fans, we'll be 30-20 in mid September and leading the WC race, and COVID will resurface and wipe out the season.  

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6 hours ago, scOtt said:

For another reference, our record for the 1st 60 games out of ST for the last 3 (bad) years:

2017 31-29

2018 19-41

2019 19-41 (again)

I'm in the under category for 20 wins, but you never know.

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1 hour ago, LA2 said:

A rare opportunity to disagree with you on a fun prediction! (BTW thanks for the good idea behind this thread.) I think we're much worse than last season. Not only because of the absence of last year's two best hitters (Mancini, Villar) and second and fifth best pitchers (Cashner, Bundy), but also because I'm far from sure that Means, Alberto, and Severino can approximate their 2019 seasons. New blood in the outfield and at SS may help though--we shall see!

I know one thing, OOTP in just about every sim does not like John Means' chances of repeating. He's been pretty horrid in most sims so let's hope he can overcome their predictions. 

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1 hour ago, Mendoza Line said:

I'm content with the fact that it is mathematically impossible for us to lose 100 games this season. We can't extend our "modest" 2 season streak by default.

This is literally the best thing about this season because this team was going to be quite horrid and could have possibly been the worse Orioles team ever by record.

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2 hours ago, LA2 said:

A rare opportunity to disagree with you on a fun prediction! (BTW thanks for the good idea behind this thread.) I think we're much worse than last season. Not only because of the absence of last year's two best hitters (Mancini, Villar) and second and fifth best pitchers (Cashner, Bundy), but also because I'm far from sure that Means, Alberto, and Severino can approximate their 2019 seasons. New blood in the outfield and at SS may help though--we shall see!

There's basically a floor for MLB winning percentage around .250.  Even the 1916 A's, who literally were playing random kids from Class D ball and sandlots and stuff, they won 23% of their games.  The '03 Tigers won 26% and their only real pitcher was a LOOGY.  Weird things happen in small samples, but the Orioles are going to win 15-20 games out of 60 almost no matter what.

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19/60 = 0.317 ball puts us in the running for the top draft choice. I'm more comfortable with the O's winning 16 games or 0.267. Could make the O's #1.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's basically a floor for MLB winning percentage around .250.  Even the 1916 A's, who literally were playing random kids from Class D ball and sandlots and stuff, they won 23% of their games.  The '03 Tigers won 26% and their only real pitcher was a LOOGY.  Weird things happen in small samples, but the Orioles are going to win 15-20 games out of 60 almost no matter what.

Ok, nice to have a historical perspective. I'll revise upwards to the low end of "15-20."

Semantics Q: What is the criteria for a team "tanking" during a 60-game season? Maybe it was just a bad streak....

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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm in the under category for 20 wins, but you never know.

20 will be a goal... 😛

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On 6/24/2020 at 9:30 AM, Frobby said:

I was thinking about the small sample size we’ll have in 2020, and wondering how well we might do if the cards broke our way, assuming the same level of talent we had the last two years.    To get a handle, I took a look at 2018-2019.

The 2018 team was remarkably consistent in its terribleness.    So far as I could tell, its worst record over any 60 game stretch was 17-43, while its best record was 19-41 (including their “hot” start to the 2018 season!).

The 2019 team varied a bit more.    Its worst 60-game record was 15-45, while its best was 23-37.     

(All of this is from me eyeballing the schedule; it’s possible I missed a hotter or colder stretch somewhere.)

Overall, I don’t see that a fluke scenario where we play .400+ baseball for 60 games has much chance to occur.    It hasn’t happened any time in the last two years, and I think the talent level on this year’s team is probably the lowest it’s been when you factor in the Villar and Bundy trades and Mancini’s illness.     So, put me down for 20-40 or worse.   

With their 24th win tonight, the O’s assured a 60-game record that is better than any 60-game stretch they had in 2018-19.    I’m pretty impressed with that accomplishment.   Hoping for a few more wins before it’s over.   

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10 hours ago, Frobby said:

With their 24th win tonight, the O’s assured a 60-game record that is better than any 60-game stretch they had in 2018-19.    I’m pretty impressed with that accomplishment.   Hoping for a few more wins before it’s over.   

Yes - kudos to you for reminding us what you predicted.  So I guess we "blame" BABIP, SSS, COVID19, team chemistry, youthful hubris, no hooch on the road 🥰, etc. for our record.  I was hoping to "lose out" but I have to admit, last night's eruption was exhilaration and even with a 12 run lead I had to watch to the end because Sulser, Hess ........  and watching Iggi hobble around the bases on his homer and also trying to "leg out" a grounder in a game already won was really something!  

Edited by bobmc
Iggi - gush!
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