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Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

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Colon was a top 5 pick that some thought could stay at SS..power was in question although he had a good hit tool.

He didn’t stay at SS and never developed power and just fizzled out.

Martin has a similar profile.

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Colon was a top 5 pick that some thought could stay at SS..power was in question although he had a good hit tool.

He didn’t stay at SS and never developed power and just fizzled our.

Martin has a similar profile.

The 2010 draft was pretty loaded.  He might have well been ranked #2 in a draft year like 2020.

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29 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He played 63 innings in center last year, he has played 1 more inning in CF in his Major League career than Stevie Wilkerson (also not a center fielder) played last year.

He is an average-ish defensive LF who played CF in college and the minors but would likely be over matched at the MLB level.

Of the 12 players who played 800+ innings in LF, Benintendi ranked 7th in UZR/150. Are the 6 guys ahead of him also center fielders?

Of the 16 players who played 2000+ innings in LF between 2016 and 2019, Benintendi ranks 10th in UZR/150 and 10th in overall defensive value, per Fangraphs.

And there's nobody thinking that Kjerstad will play even more than a handful of random innings in CF in the minors, which was more my point. He and Benintendi are two different types of players even though they are both outfielders. Hence there's no reason to overindex on the Razorbacks coach comparing the two favorably.

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31 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

@Frobby said Whitaker.....I said Burnitz.....Frobby who I’m sure you rep’d in this thread talked about Burnitz as a comp for Kjerstad.....read it and get back to me.

Yes I know who said what. Again, you're twisting things to try and "prove" something that's a completely subjective opinion at this point. In no way should @Frobby mentioning Whitaker be the basis of you saying all comparisons henceforth should be in the context of Martin turning into a 70 WAR player.

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On 6/26/2020 at 11:21 AM, Sports Guy said:

Everything I have seen is that he will be fine in RF and has a strong arm.  He probably isn’t going to be some elite defender but he won’t hurt you and his arm can make up for some issues.  RF isn’t that hard to play in OPACY and having a strong arm helps when you are playing balls off the scoreboard.

Still, he’s not getting a boost because of his defense.  Don’t think it hurts him but doesn’t help him either.  
 

But if a guy like Martin ends up at second and doesn’t hit for much power, he isn’t someone I would take at 2...I actually may have preferred Gonzalez over him...but again, that’s if you don’t think Martin sticks on the left side.  If he is an everyday player on the left side of the infield, the Os likely made a big mistake by not taking him.

I'm bullish on him for his lefty power. If I'm going position player early in the draft, I want someone with thump if I can get it. Martin could turn into a great player, but he has the kind of profile that scares me a little. I would have been thrilled to get him, but the more I read about Kjerstad the better I feel about him ending up the better player. 

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What if Martin is Christian Colon and Kjerstad is Babe Ruth?  Will they have made the better choice?  

Depends....Christian Colon is merely out of baseball.  Babe Ruth is.....dead.

But seriously, looking for middle ground.  The next great Oriole Hall of Famer has been drafted.  Kjerstad.  But it should go without saying that until he proves that, Elias is a punk for not drafting Martin.  Come on, let's get two.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What if Martin is Christian Colon and Kjerstad is Babe Ruth?  Will they have made the better choice?  

I’d settle for Ted Williams or Stan Musial. 

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Posted this in the draft forum but someone made a career college highlight video for Kjerstad a few weeks ago that I haven't seen posted yet.

 

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Thanks ...I wasnt trying to be funny or “not approaching the conversation in good faith”. I was totally serious....I expect .240 AVG, <-300 OBP, 25-35 homers per season, and 175-200 Ks. If he ends up better than that I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

If Martin ends up being Lou Whitaker and Kjerstad ends up being Burnitz it will being pretty convincing that we took the wrong player. Unless as you said they can get 50 WAR out of the other 2 guys.

I’d be disappointed with those stats from Kjerstad.    I’d like to think a .343 career hitter who played in the SEC can do better than .240 in the majors.    I think one huge factor is whether the improved selectivity at the plate in 2020 (7 BB and 9 K’s in 78 PA) is real and can be carried over.   We’ll see about that.

 

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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I think he will sign and think he would’ve signed here. Did he want top dollar? Sure....You don’t hire Boras for any other reason. Martin was thought of as the best player in the draft by some outlets.

Look....I’m going to stop posting about this. I’m sick of the discussion. I’m not dug in on my position anymore than the handful of guys that have replied over and over. My position just isn’t popular in the Elias love fest circle.

and now this troll MGH5208 is throwing around the negative rep. Which is interesting since he reps more than he posts. And I’ve been through it with him before. 

I think you are more "dug" onto your position than most here - and it's really not very close.  After all, most here wanted Martin because of the industry consensus of his talents, but it appears most of THOSE people have been able to comprehend our draft strategy AND adjust their viewpoints.  It is you who is digging in your heels as if it doesn't even matter how Kjerstad turns out.  And it is somewhat offensive for you to think opinions like mine are based on an "Elias love fest".

It appears to defy any logic that you might consider that Kjerstad could be roughly an equivalent or better prospect to Martin - despite the upheaval that resulted in losing a good portion of the college season - despite Kjerstand out-hitting Martin for the collegiate national team.  Most high schoolers never took the field for their season - the entire HS crop could be classified as almost a pot luck. There will be first rounders who may almost immediately be flops and fourth rounders who almost immediately will be considered first round talents.  It is highly likely the draft would have played out much, much different if the high school and college seasons were played out.

RT, you use phrases like most first rounders don't pan out as if this applies only to Kjerstad and not to Martin.  And you have posted that you would likely have met Boras' asking price for Martin with no concern voiced so far at the inequity of Boras requesting/receiving a different signing bonus from the Os than from the Jays.

There is high upside in this draft for Orioles because of the number of $1.5M talents we are leaving this draft with.  Being able to do that starts with getting a quality talent to sign for less than slot at 1:2.    Our front office has bucked industry consensus in saying that Kjerstad is a talent under-appreciated by the industry.  Those of us with open minds are eager to see how it plays out.

 

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

 I was totally serious....I expect .240 AVG, <-300 OBP, 25-35 homers per season, and 175-200 Ks. If he ends up better than that I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

In other words, a typical major league player in 2025 as Ks continue to rise and averages fall and nobody does a thing about it.

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1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I think you are more "dug" onto your position than most here - and it's really not very close.  After all, most here wanted Martin because of the industry consensus of his talents, but it appears most of THOSE people have been able to comprehend our draft strategy AND adjust their viewpoints.  It is you who is digging in your heels as if it doesn't even matter how Kjerstad turns out.  And it is somewhat offensive for you to think opinions like mine are based on an "Elias love fest".

It appears to defy any logic that you might consider that Kjerstad could be roughly an equivalent or better prospect to Martin - despite the upheaval that resulted in losing a good portion of the college season - despite Kjerstand out-hitting Martin for the collegiate national team.  Most high schoolers never took the field for their season - the entire HS crop could be classified as almost a pot luck. There will be first rounders who may almost immediately be flops and fourth rounders who almost immediately will be considered first round talents.  It is highly likely the draft would have played out much, much different if the high school and college seasons were played out.

2) RT, you use phrases like most first rounders don't pan out as if this applies only to Kjerstad and not to Martin.  And you have posted that you would likely have met Boras' asking price for Martin with no concern voiced so far at the inequity of Boras requesting/receiving a different signing bonus from the Os than from the Jays.

There is high upside in this draft for Orioles because of the number of $1.5M talents we are leaving this draft with.  Being able to do that starts with getting a quality talent to sign for less than slot at 1:2.    Our front office has bucked industry consensus in saying that Kjerstad is a talent under-appreciated by the industry.  Those of us with open minds are eager to see how it plays out.

 

Am I really dug into my position anymore than some of you? There is a love fest for everything Elias does. Personally, I haven’t liked much of anything in regards to personnel moves, trades, or the draft so far. You or I could’ve selected AR with the 1st pick. I think sacrificing Martin to have money to throw at some high school long shots was stupid.You are not going to change my mind anymore than I cam yours. Fact is ....I can’t believe any of you are Flipping Stupid enough to think you can.

 

I feel better about my position than the guys that pissed and Moaned the whole draft and now have done a complete 180. If any of you guys want to tell me I’m wrong, do so in 5 years when you have some evidence .... not just a trance caused by looking at the matter through your Orange sun glasses.
 

2) No I didn’t .... I think Martin is the better prospect. I have no crystal ball that tells me if either of these guys will be anything. So stop putting words in my mouth. I never said anyone is a can’t miss including Lacy and Torkelson. I’ve consistently argued that I don’t like the approach of not taking the BPA. Elias admitted that was the approach in one of the articles .... he did say that money wasn’t the only reason. I expect him to say that in order not to shake the players confidence. I’m quite certain that they had a conversation with Kjerstad’s people reminding them of his ranking per the scouting services and tell them that they weren’t willing to pay slot. I’m sure you can admit this since they don’t have 7.7 million or whatever the exact number that’s left and they still need to sign Servideo.

You guys should at very least admit to the stuff that’s obvious 

 

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In other words, a typical major league player in 2025 as Ks continue to rise and averages fall and nobody does a thing about it.

I have no idea what 2025 Players will look or if there will even be baseball. @Sports Guy asked how long I expected Kjerstad to be with the Orioles batting .240, .300, , while hitting 25-35 homers, and striking out 175-200 times. (Obviously I worded this and didn’t use the exact quote). I said I don’t think hill hit 285 homers all for the Orioles and that I suspect he will play here a season or two beyond the Orioles initial control.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d be disappointed with those stats from Kjerstad.    I’d like to think a .343 career hitter who played in the SEC can do better than .240 in the majors.    I think one huge factor is whether the improved selectivity at the plate in 2020 (7 BB and 9 K’s in 78 PA) is real and can be carried over.   We’ll see about that.

 

Kingman was a pitcher first at USC before being converted to an outfielder. In his only full season as a hitter he hit -355 and had 9 homeruns in 121 ABs. His career average in the MLB was .236
 

http://www.jfkrush.com/kingmanfan/1969-70.htm

 

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4 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Yes I know who said what. Again, you're twisting things to try and "prove" something that's a completely subjective opinion at this point. In no way should @Frobby mentioning Whitaker be the basis of you saying all comparisons henceforth should be in the context of Martin turning into a 70 WAR player.

Again ....Putting words in my mouth! Show me 1 post where I said Martin would be a 70 WAR player. 
 

And he also said Burnitz was a fair comp projection for Kjerstad ( not those exacts words). Someone in this thread thought my pick of Burnitz was absurd. 

 

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