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Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

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4 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Yes I know who said what. Again, you're twisting things to try and "prove" something that's a completely subjective opinion at this point. In no way should @Frobby mentioning Whitaker be the basis of you saying all comparisons henceforth should be in the context of Martin turning into a 70 WAR player.

Again ....Putting words in my mouth! Show me 1 post where I said Martin would be a 70 WAR player. 
 

And he also said Burnitz was a fair comp projection for Kjerstad ( not those exacts words). Someone in this thread thought my pick of Burnitz was absurd. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Again ....Putting words in my mouth! Show me 1 post where I said Martin would be a 70 WAR player. 
 

And he also said Burnitz was a fair comp projection for Kjerstad ( not those exacts words). Someone in this thread thought my pick of Burnitz was absurd. 

 

I believe my words were “not a terrible comp.”    Obviously, Kjerstad could turn out to be much better than Burnitz, or far worse.    But in terms of the type of player he is, not a terrible comp.   

Like I said before, only 14 no. 2 picks have produced more WAR than Burnitz (who, by the way, was the no. 17 overall pick in 1990, and produced significantly more value than no. 2 pick Tony Clark).    Nobody dreams of drafting a 20-WAR player at no. 2, but most of those picks don’t attain even that level.     

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I believe my words were “not a terrible comp.”    Obviously, Kjerstad could turn out to be much better than Burnitz, or far worse.    But in terms of the type of player he is, not a terrible comp.   

Like I said before, only 14 no. 2 picks have produced more WAR than Burnitz (who, by the way, was the no. 17 overall pick in 1990, and produced significantly more value than no. 2 pick Tony Clark).    Nobody dreams of drafting a 20-WAR player at no. 2, but most of those picks don’t attain even that level.     

Not trying to misquote you sir! I didn’t want to look back to respond.

why should I when I think Martin will be a 70 WAR player and Kjerstad will end up in the Independent league (Rolls Eyes.....Being sarcastic)

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45 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m quite certain that they had a conversation with Kjerstad’s people reminding them of his ranking per the scouting services and tell them that they weren’t willing to pay slot. I’m sure you can admit this since they don’t have 7.7 million or whatever the exact number that’s left and they still need to sign Servideo.

You guys should at very least admit to the stuff that’s obvious 

 

Why wouldn't they have that conversation?  Why wouldn't they say we want to draft your guy and give him more than what he was expecting but much less than slot?  It is the exact same conversation the Astros had with Correa's agent.  Guess what you do not seem to understand - one should have that discussion with Kjerstad's agent regardless of whether you are telling the truth (and have Kjerstad rated somewhere fifth through fifteenth) or whether your internal analysis has Kjerstad as the best prospect to come along in 50 years!

That discussion has NOTHING TO DO with where you actually rate Kjerstad and everything to do with talking his agent into accepting as low a signing bonus as can be negotiated.  

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17 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Why wouldn't they have that conversation?  Why wouldn't they say we want to draft your guy and give him more than what he was expecting but much less than slot?  It is the exact same conversation the Astros had with Correa's agent.  Guess what you do not seem to understand - one should have that discussion with Kjerstad's agent regardless of whether you are telling the truth (and have Kjerstad rated somewhere fifth through fifteenth) or whether your internal analysis has Kjerstad as the best prospect to come along in 50 years!

That discussion has NOTHING TO DO with where you actually rate Kjerstad and everything to do with talking his agent into accepting as low a signing bonus as can be negotiated.  

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that with  him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that will him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

The same Rutschman who signed for under slot?

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The same Rutschman who signed for under slot?

Quote

MLB Draft Top Pick Adley Rutschman, Orioles Agree to Record $8.1M Contract. The have reportedly signed No. 1 overall draft pick to a signing bonus worth $8.1 million, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The bonus is the largest of its kind, breaking the previous record of $8 million set by Gerrit Cole in 2011.J

It was only the highest ever ....it’s 8.4 this year and I’m quite certain it goes up every year..... So he took a 100,000-200,000 less. Kjerstad is taking 2 million less....big difference! Don’t act like it isn’t!

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

It was only the highest ever ....it’s 8.4 this year and I’m quite certain it goes up every year..... So he took a 100,000-200,000 less. Kjerstad is taking 2 million less....big difference! Don’t act like it isn’t!

I'm just saying, so far, everyone that has gone #1 has signed an underslot deal.  It is part of what makes me think Martin would have backed down in the end.  It's too much money to turn down, particularly how uncertain next season is going to be.

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5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that with  him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

Yes they know where they’re ranked. That’s why you can say “Hey, we want to take you at 2. We see you’re ranked at around 10. So we’ll pay you slot for 7 and call it a day, good?”

You can do this because he’s afraid if he doesn’t agree he will fall to 9 or 10. Even if you think he’s  really #2 you can do this. This works best when you think the market undervalues the guy you love. 

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Maybe we will get lucky and it turns out like 2003. The 7th best player was better than the 2nd rated 2b. I don't think nick with more power is a bad comp. Weeks is also a great comp for Martin. The truth is we won't  know for a long time. 

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4 minutes ago, Flosman said:

Maybe we will get lucky and it turns out like 2003. The 7th best player was better than the 2nd rated 2b. I don't think nick with more power is a bad comp. Weeks is also a great comp for Martin. The truth is we won't  know for a long time. 

No way Kjerstad comes anywhere near the K/BB rate Markakis has had.  He's not the same kind of player.

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Kjerstad will strike out more but he is a good bet to hit for a lot more power. I can see both providing similar value. With kjerstad having some real upside.

More importantly the predraft writeups of weeks are almost identical to martin. Nick was a better pick than weeks by a bunch.

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that with  him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

RT, you are all over the place in your opinion here.  Didn't you post a bit back that Martin would likely "be a team player" and lower his bonus demands?  Which is it - guys like Martin are team players or they want full slot and more?  

Whichever number the team and player agree to is what it is.  And agents ask for slot and more and teams offer slot and less. 

Sometimes, there may be a vast difference between what a player requests and what a team is willing to pay based on how it rates a prospect - and a team might take advantage of that.  Sometimes, the difference in talent between player A and player B is not enough to justify the difference in bonus requests. 

You seem to be making inferences on where these players are ranked based on their signing bonuses.

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It was only the highest ever ....it’s 8.4 this year and I’m quite certain it goes up every year..... So he took a 100,000-200,000 less. Kjerstad is taking 2 million less....big difference! Don’t act like it isn’t!

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

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